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Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Sunday, 4 January, 2026 15:00
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Probable Scores Heatmap
xG: 1.02 vs 1.78
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.5%
0:1
11.87%
🔥
0:2
9.39%
0:3
4.95%
0:4
1.96%
⭐
0:5
0.62%
1
1:0
6.13%
1:1
11.21%
1:2
10.06%
1:3
5.94%
⭐
1:4
2.6%
⭐
1:5
0.9%
⭐
2
2:0
2.5%
2:1
5.19%
2:2
5.24%
2:3
3.44%
⭐
2:4
1.66%
⭐
2:5
0.63%
⭐
3
3:0
0.68%
3:1
1.58%
3:2
1.78%
3:3
1.29%
⭐
3:4
0.68%
⭐
3:5
0.28%
⭐
4
4:0
0.14%
4:1
0.36%
4:2
0.44%
4:3
0.35%
⭐
4:4
0.2%
⭐
4:5
0.09%
5
5:0
0.02%
5:1
0.06%
5:2
0.09%
5:3
0.08%
5:4
0.05%
5:5
0.02%
Hotspot:
0:1 (11.9%)
Total Boundaries:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
La Liga 2025-2026 – Regular Season
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
2
13
3
2
36
16
20
42
3
▲
11
4
3
33
16
17
37
4
▼
11
2
3
31
15
16
35
15
▼
4
6
7
13
20
-7
18
16
▼
4
5
8
21
25
-4
17
17
3
7
7
16
26
-10
16
1.03
xG
1.98
58%
Ball Possession
42%
14
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
4
9
Shots Off Goal
6
6
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
2
Last 6 Matches
Real Sociedad
VS
Atletico Madrid
1/6 (17%)
Victories
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Draws
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Defeats
2/6 (33%)
0.83
PPG
2.00
1.33
Avg Goals Scored
1.83
1.50
Avg Goals Conceded
1.17
83%
BTTS %
50%
17%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
33%
1.16
Avg xG
1.32
In this exciting La Liga 2025-2026 matchup, Real Sociedad will take on Atletico Madrid as part of the 2025-2026 season in La Liga. This match is part of Matchweek 18 and will take place on 2026-01-04 at 2026-01-04 in the famous Reale Arena.
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Real Sociedad, and the visiting side, Atletico Madrid. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : draw or Atletico Madrid.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2026-01-04
Time: 20:00
Location: Reale Arena
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Sunday, Jan 4th, 2026 at 15:00 Football
Value Bets
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Trends for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Football 4 Jan, 2026 15:00
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 4 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
BTTS Magnet
Both teams score in 75% of recent matches — strong BTTS pattern
-
Chance Suppression
Real Sociedad rarely concede quality chances (xGA ≤1.0) — disciplined defensive structure limits opposition
+2 more advanced patterns are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 4 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner — Atletico Madrid @ 2.11 ✅ 
Atletico Madrid
- UnbeatenH2H10/10100%Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 10 10 matches
- Efficient ScoringH2H10/10100%Atletico Madrid efficiently convert chances (high accuracy) in 10 of their last 10 La Liga matches
- Good Goal RatioH2H8/1080%Atletico Madrid have good goal ratio (1.5+) in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches
- Top Table FormLeague65%Atletico Madrid are currently 3rd in the table (Top 3)
- Efficient ScoringRecent15/1883%Atletico Madrid efficiently convert chances (high accuracy) in 15 of their last 18 La Liga matches
Real Sociedad
- Not WinH2H10/10100%Real Sociedad have not won in 10 of their last 10 La Liga matches
- Not WinRecent13/1776%Real Sociedad have not won in 13 of their last 17 La Liga matches
Atletico Madrid dominate both recent form and H2H trends, strongly supporting a win bet.
⚽ Both Teams To Score — Yes @ 1.83 ⚠️
Real Sociedad(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague6/875%Real Sociedad score (1.50/match) and concede (1.63/match) regularly at home - BTTS in 75% of matches (league avg: 50%)
Atletico Madrid(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague5/956%Atletico Madrid score (1.22/match) and concede (1.00/match) regularly in away matches - BTTS in 56% of matches (league avg: 50%)
Head-to-Head(1 trends)
- Both Teams ScoredH2H7/1070%Both teams scored in 7 of their last 10 H2H matches (70.0%%)
🎯 Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Over 2.5 @ 2.07 ⚠️ 
Real Sociedad(1 trends)
- Few GoalsH2H9/1090%Real Sociedad scored 0-1 goals in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches
Atletico Madrid(1 trends)
- Good Goal RatioH2H8/1080%Atletico Madrid have good goal ratio (1.5+) in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches
Head-to-Head(1 trends)
- Over 2.5 GoalsH2H6/1060%Over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 10 H2H matches (60.0%%)
Defensive solidity suggests lower-scoring match
🛡️ Double Chance — Atletico Madrid Win or Draw @ 1.34 ✅ 
Atletico Madrid
- UnbeatenH2H10/10100%Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 10 10 matches
- Top Table FormLeague65%Atletico Madrid are currently 3rd in the table (Top 3)
- Undefeated at HTRecent18/18100%Atletico Madrid are undefeated at half time in their last 18 18 matches
Real Sociedad
- Not WinH2H10/10100%Real Sociedad have not won in 10 of their last 10 La Liga matches
- Not WinRecent13/1776%Real Sociedad have not won in 13 of their last 17 La Liga matches
Strong alignment between stats and historical dominance — Atletico Madrid to win looks justified.
⚡ Team Total Goals — Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 ⚠️ 
Atletico Madrid
- Scored 1+Recent10/10100%Atletico Madrid scored 1+ goals in their last 10 10 matches
- Scored 2+Recent8/1080%Atletico Madrid scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches
🏟️ Away dominance — Atletico Madrid scored 2+ goals in 8 recent away matches
Atletico Madrid's consistent scoring makes Over 1.5 a statistically sound pick.
🟨 Cards Over/Under
Head-to-Head(1 trends)
- High Card MatchesH2H%Average 5.1 cards per match in their last 9 H2H matches
Both teams disciplined -
🚩 Corners Over/Under — Over 9.5 Corners @ 1.90 ⚠️ 
Real Sociedad(1 trends) — avg 6.6 (+38% above league)
- Many CornersLeague8/885%Real Sociedad average 6.6 corners/match at home (+38% above league avg 4.8)
Real Sociedad drive corners - Over 9.5 Corners @ 1.90
+11 Streak trends are hidden
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Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
🚀 Match Start: Atletico Madrid is stronger in the first 15 minutes (8 vs 2).
🔄 Second Half: Atletico Madrid is stronger in the second half (16 vs 12).
⚡ Final Stage: Atletico Madrid is stronger in the final minutes (14 vs 5).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the away team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
🔄 Second Half: Atletico Madrid is stronger in the second half (16 vs 12).
⚡ Final Stage: Atletico Madrid is stronger in the final minutes (14 vs 5).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the away team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 Real Sociedad
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.09
Pressure
0.06
✈️ Atletico Madrid
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.3
Pressure
0.24
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 Real Sociedad - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
2
Avg. Goals per Match
0.1
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
10
Avg. Goals per Match
0.5
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25
✈️ Atletico Madrid - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
16
Avg. Goals per Match
0.8
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
14
Avg. Goals per Match
0.7
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 Real Sociedad - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
2
Comeback Goals
7
Negative Sequences
2
Killer Goals
11
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
2
Late Pressure
5
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
2
Half-time Spurts
8
Second Half Starts
7
Late Surges
5
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
4
Late Conceded
9
✈️ Atletico Madrid - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
7
Comeback Goals
6
Negative Sequences
1
Killer Goals
10
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
8
Late Pressure
14
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
8
Half-time Spurts
4
Second Half Starts
2
Late Surges
14
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
6
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- 🚀 Away Fast Start: Atletico Madrid often scores in the first 15 minutes (8 vs 2)
- First Goal Away: High probability of Atletico Madrid scoring first
- 🔄 Second Half Dominance: Atletico Madrid shows superior performance after the break (16 vs 12 goals)
- Second Half Winner: High probability of Atletico Madrid winning the second half
- ⚡ Final Stage Mastery: Atletico Madrid excels in the closing minutes (14 vs 5 late goals)
- Last Goal Scorer: High probability of Atletico Madrid scoring the final goal
- Late Goals Market: Consider bets on goals after 75th minute
- Overall Result: Atletico Madrid has an advantage in the match
- Away Handicap: Consider Atletico Madrid handicap
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.204
Pressure (Advantage)
Away +0.187
Timing (Advantage)
Away +0.015 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Away +0.038 (away team better)
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (Real Sociedad):
Momentum: Moderate - team shows stable play. Pressure: Low - team rarely creates dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Atletico Madrid):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: High - team creates many dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Away team is stronger in the final minutes of the match. Consider bets on late goals, last goal scorer, and away team victory.
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-head statistics for Sun 4 Jan, 2026 @ 15:00 La Liga
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams ℹ️
Home/Away: Shows home matches for Real Sociedad and away matches for Atletico Madrid
Number of goals
Real Sociedad
Under
Over
Atletico Madrid
Under
Over
0.5
20%
2
80%
8
10%
1
90%
9
1.5
60%
6
40%
4
30%
3
70%
7
2.5
80%
8
20%
2
60%
6
40%
4
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Yes
80%
8
60%
6
No
20%
2
40%
4
1X2
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
1
30%
3
80%
8
X
30%
3
0%
0
2
40%
4
20%
2
Double Chance
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
12
70%
7
100%
10
1X
60%
6
80%
8
X2
70%
7
20%
2
Total Goals
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
0-1
20%
2
20%
2
2-3
50%
5
40%
4
4+
30%
3
40%
4
Total Corners
Real Sociedad
Under
Over
Atletico Madrid
Under
Over
7.5
80%
8
20%
2
80%
8
20%
2
8.5
80%
8
20%
2
90%
9
10%
1
9.5
80%
8
20%
2
90%
9
10%
1
10.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
Clean Sheet
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Yes
0%
0
30%
3
No
100%
10
70%
7
1X2 HT - FT
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
HT 1 - FT 1
10%
1
50%
5
HT 1 - FT 2
10%
1
0%
0
HT 1 - FT X
10%
1
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
10%
1
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
20%
2
0%
0
HT 2 - FT X
10%
1
0%
0
HT X - FT 1
10%
1
30%
3
HT X - FT 2
10%
1
20%
2
HT X - FT X
10%
1
0%
0
xG(xGa)
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
xG
1.09
1.42
xGa
1.01
1.4
Number of goals
Real Sociedad
Under
Over
Atletico Madrid
Under
Over
0.5
60%
6
40%
4
20%
2
80%
8
1.5
90%
9
10%
1
80%
8
20%
2
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Yes
20%
2
30%
3
No
80%
8
70%
7
1X2
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
1
30%
3
50%
5
X
30%
3
50%
5
2
40%
4
0%
0
Double Chance
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
12
70%
7
50%
5
1X
60%
6
100%
10
X2
70%
7
50%
5
Total Goals
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
0-1
80%
8
50%
5
2-3
20%
2
50%
5
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Yes
40%
4
70%
7
No
60%
6
30%
3
Number of goals
Real Sociedad
Under
Over
Atletico Madrid
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
30%
3
70%
7
1.5
70%
7
30%
3
70%
7
30%
3
2.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Yes
30%
3
40%
4
No
70%
7
60%
6
1X2
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
1
30%
3
50%
5
X
40%
4
30%
3
2
30%
3
20%
2
Double Chance
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
12
60%
6
70%
7
1X
70%
7
80%
8
X2
70%
7
50%
5
Total Goals
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
0-1
50%
5
40%
4
2-3
40%
4
60%
6
4+
10%
1
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Yes
40%
4
40%
4
No
60%
6
60%
6
Team comparison
Prediction
Draw or Atletico Madrid
Goals Home:
-2.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions
Legend: High ConfidenceMedium ConfidenceLow Confidence
📊 Asian Handicap Details
- Total outcomes: 20
- Sum of probabilities: 999.91%
- Expected: ~300% (multiple independent pairs)
- ⚠️ High total - this is normal for Asian Handicap (multiple independent pairs)
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
Team Total Predictions
| Team | Outcome | Probability | Confidence | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Over 1.5 | 26.00% | Low | 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 74.00% | High | 1.40 | |
| Away | Over 1.5 | 52.42% | Medium | 2.15 |
| Under 1.5 | 47.58% | Low | 1.74 | |
| Home | Over 2.5 | 7.82% | Low | 8.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 92.18% | High | 1.09 | |
| Away | Over 2.5 | 25.79% | Low | 4.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 74.21% | High | 1.20 |
Team Total Details
- Thresholds: 1.5, 2.5 goals
- Markets: Total - Home, Total - Away
- Each team has Over/Under predictions for each threshold
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Played:
10
Wins
0
0
Draws
3
3
Wins
7
7
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
8
0.8
Goals
2
20
20
2
Goals Conceded
0.8
8
24
2.4
Yellow Cards
2.1
21
0
Red Cards
0.1
1
0
Clean Sheets
0.3
3
49
4.9
Corners
3.2
32
144
14.4
Fouls
11.3
113
12
1.2
Offsides
1.6
16
111
11.1
Shots
10.9
109
41
4.1
Shots on Goal
4.4
44
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 8 | 9 | 17 | |||
| Wins | 3 | 1 | 4 | |||
| Draws | 1 | 4 | 5 | |||
| Losses | 4 | 4 | 8 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.5 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 1.2 | 21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 13 | 1.3 | 12 | 1.5 | 25 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.6 | 13 | 2.6 | 23 | 2.1 | 36 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Clean Sheets | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | |
| Corners | 6.6 | 53 | 6.2 | 56 | 6.4 | 109 |
| Fouls | 16.1 | 129 | 14.4 | 130 | 15.2 | 259 |
| Offsides | 1.4 | 11 | 2.9 | 26 | 2.2 | 37 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 102 | 14 | 126 | 13.4 | 228 |
| Shots on Goal | 4.5 | 36 | 4.9 | 44 | 4.7 | 80 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | |||
| Wins | 8 | 3 | 11 | |||
| Draws | 1 | 3 | 4 | |||
| Losses | 0 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 2.4 | 22 | 1.2 | 11 | 1.8 | 33 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.8 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0.9 | 16 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.1 | 19 | 1.9 | 17 | 2 | 36 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 2 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0.4 | 4 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.4 | 7 |
| Corners | 8.7 | 78 | 4.9 | 44 | 6.8 | 122 |
| Fouls | 9.9 | 89 | 12.3 | 111 | 11.1 | 200 |
| Offsides | 2.1 | 19 | 2.3 | 21 | 2.2 | 40 |
| Shots | 14.8 | 133 | 10.8 | 97 | 12.8 | 230 |
| Shots on Goal | 6.9 | 62 | 4.3 | 39 | 5.6 | 101 |
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