Form
Form
La Liga 2025-2026 • Matchweek 38
Preview
Alaves
Alaves
Form
VS
19:00
23 May 2026
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Form
Estadio de Mendizorroza
AI Prediction Double chance : Alaves or draw
1 2.5 X 3.5 2 3.13
Preview
Value Bets
Trends
H2H Stats

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Saturday, 23 May, 2026 15:00

Winner (1x2)3.13
Rayo Vallecano to Win
Probability 40%
Total Goals1.92
Under 2.5
Probability 53%
Both Teams to Score1.75
Yes
Probability 54%
Alaves Total1.29
Home Over 0.5
Probability 70%
Rayo Vallecano Total1.35
Away Over 0.5
Probability 74%
Double Chance1.61
Draw/Rayo Vallecano
Probability 67%
Asian Handicap1.30
Rayo Vallecano +1
Probability 77%
<
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Best Tip PREMIUM

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Prediction League
La Liga 2025-2026
• 19:00
Alaves W 33%
:
Rayo Vallecano W 40%

Match has started. Predictions are locked.

Scoring Rules

Points are calculated automatically based on your predicted score. Maximum 5 points per match.

Category Points Condition
Exact Score 5 Your prediction matches the final score exactly.
Outcome (1X2) 2 You correctly predicted the winner or a draw.
BTTS Bonus +1 You correctly predicted if both teams score (or if at least one doesn't).
Total Goals Bonus +1 You correctly predicted if total goals are Over or Under 2.5.

Examples:

  • Match result: 3:1 (Home Win, BTTS: Yes, Total: Over 2.5)
    • Prediction 3:1 → 5 points (Exact Score)
    • Prediction 2:1 → 4 points (Outcome: 2 + BTTS: +1 + Total: +1)
    • Prediction 2:0 → 2 points (Outcome: 2, BTTS: No/Yes mismatch)
    • Prediction 1:1 → 1 point (BTTS: +1, Outcome mismatch)
  • Match result: 2:0 (Home Win, BTTS: No, Total: Under 2.5)
    • Prediction 2:0 → 5 points (Exact Score)
    • Prediction 1:0 → 4 points (Outcome: 2 + BTTS: +1 + Total: +1)
    • Prediction 3:1 → 2 points (Outcome: 2, BTTS: Yes/No mismatch)

Probable Scores Heatmap

xG: 1.21 vs 1.36
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
9.32%
⭐
0:1
10.88%
⭐
0:2
6.35%
0:3
2.47%
0:4
0.72%
⭐
0:5
0.17%
1
1:0
9.48%
1:1
12.86%
🔥
1:2
8.56%
⭐
1:3
3.74%
1:4
1.21%
⭐
1:5
0.31%
2
2:0
4.82%
2:1
7.46%
2:2
5.59%
2:3
2.72%
2:4
0.98%
⭐
2:5
0.27%
⭐
3
3:0
1.64%
3:1
2.84%
3:2
2.37%
3:3
1.28%
3:4
0.51%
⭐
3:5
0.16%
⭐
4
4:0
0.42%
4:1
0.8%
4:2
0.74%
4:3
0.44%
4:4
0.19%
⭐
4:5
0.06%
5
5:0
0.08%
5:1
0.18%
5:2
0.18%
5:3
0.12%
5:4
0.06%
5:5
0.02%
Hotspot: 1:1 (12.9%)
Total Boundaries: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Probability Distribution by Total Goals

9.3%
0
20.4%
1
24.0%
2
20.1%
3
13.3%
4
7.4%
5
3.5%
6
1.4%
7
0.5%
8
0.1%
9
0.0%
10
Most Probable

🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions

AlavesHDPRayo Vallecano
4.3%
Very Low@ 10.00
-2.5
6.4%
@ 12.00Very Low
8.8%
Very Low@ 8.20
-2
12.3%
Very Low
13.4%
Very Low@ 5.00
-1.5
18.1%
@ 6.00Very Low
23.1%
Low@ 4.05
-1
29.1%
@ 5.20Low
32.9%
Low@ 2.47
-0.5
40.0%
@ 2.96Medium
60.0%
Medium@ 1.45
+0.5
67.2%
@ 1.64High
70.9%
High@ 1.19
+1
76.9%
@ 1.30High
81.9%
Very High@ 1.13
+1.5
86.6%
@ 1.18Very High
87.8%
Very High
+2
91.2%
@ 1.02Very High
93.6%
Very High@ 1.02
+2.5
95.7%
@ 1.05Very High

⚽ Team Total Predictions

AlavesOutcomeRayo Vallecano
34.1%
Low@ 2.41
Over 1.5
39.4%
@ 2.76Low
65.9%
High@ 1.62
Under 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.47High
12.3%
Very Low@ 6.50
Over 2.5
15.7%
@ 7.00Very Low
87.7%
Very High@ 1.15
Under 2.5
84.3%
@ 1.12Very High

Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Saturday, May 23rd, 2026 at 15:00 Football

AI Value Bets

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

6 Found

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Double Chance X2
Value
1.61
Prob 69.1%
EV +11.2%
Stake $4.10
Bet Now
Double Chance X2
Value
1.61
Prob 66.7%
EV +7.4%
Stake $4.10
Bet Now
Home Total Alaves Under 1.5
Value
1.62
Prob 65.9%
EV +6.8%
Stake $4.03
Bet Now
Goals Over/under Under 2.5
Value
1.92
Prob 53.5%
EV +2.7%
Stake $2.72
Bet Now
Asian Handicap Rayo Vallecano +1.5
Value
1.18
Prob 86.6%
EV +2.2%
Stake $10.00
Bet Now
Win to Nil Alaves NOT Win to Nil
Value
1.21
Prob 83.6%
EV +1.2%
Stake $10.00
Bet Now
Sorted by: Ev
Odds Comparison
Updated: 2026-05-22 02:34:17
Home Draw Away
10Bet 2.46 3.30 2.75
William Hill 2.38 3.20 2.90
Bet365 2.45 3.40 2.88
Unibet 2.40 3.25 3.00
Betfair 2.50 3.40 2.90
Pinnacle 2.47 3.40 2.99
SBO 2.28 3.06 2.75
Betano 2.45 3.50 2.82
888Sport 2.30 3.20 3.00
Dafabet 2.47 3.40 2.90
spinner

Trends for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Football 23 May, 2026 15:00

Team Form Comparison

Alaves Home
Form Index 48
Goals 8:8
PPG 1.60
Rayo Vallecano Away
Form Index 41
Goals 5:7
PPG 1.40
VILDOSADMALWBILLBARW
MALLAEKLGETWSTRWVALD
2/5
Won
2/5
5/5
Scored
4/5
3/5
Scored 2+
1/5
1/5
Clean sheet
2/5
2/5
Conceded 2+
2/5
3/5
Over 2.5
2/5
4/5
BTTS
2/5

Alaves

VILDOSADMALWBILLBARW
Won 2/5
Scored 5/5
Scored 2+ 3/5
Clean sheet 1/5
Conceded 2+ 2/5
Over 2.5 3/5
BTTS 4/5

Rayo Vallecano

MALLAEKLGETWSTRWVALD
Won 2/5
Scored 4/5
Scored 2+ 1/5
Clean sheet 2/5
Conceded 2+ 2/5
Over 2.5 2/5
BTTS 2/5
Head-to-Head · Last 7
BTTS 0/7
Over 2.5 0/7
Rayo Vallecano unbeaten 3/3

🤖 AI Pattern Insights

Our model identified 4 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:

  • 🚫
    Scoring Concern

    Rayo Vallecano failed to score in 10/15 recent away matches, consistent with a 67% weak-attack profile this season

  • 🔐
    Chance Suppression

    Alaves rarely concede quality chances (0.71 xGA avg) — disciplined defensive structure

+2 more advanced patterns are hidden

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Period Timing Analysis

Goal timing patterns across match periods for betting insights.

Alaves Home
Rayo Vallecano Away
Main Prediction by Periods
  • Second half: Alaves is stronger (14 vs 9).

Recommendation: Main advantage is on the away team side. Consider match result and corresponding half markets.

Home Early Strength Strong 20 matches
Away Early Strength Weak 20 matches
Home Momentum 0.18 factor
Home Pressure 0.13 Away 0.07

Match Periods

Goals scored in sample Avg / match
5 0.25
Fast Start (0–15)
3 0.15
10 0.50
First Half (0–45)
10 0.50
14 0.70
Second Half (46–90)
9 0.45
6 0.30
Final Stage (76–90)
5 0.25

Fast start = 0–15 · First half ≈ early + half-time spurts · Second half ≈ restart + late surge · Final stage = 76–90.

Factor Breakdown

Momentum Away +0.060 Moderate
Pressure Home +0.058 Moderate
Timing Home +0.013 Weak
Defense Away +0.075 Moderate

Momentum

Alaves Metric Rayo Vallecano
5 Positive Sequences 3
10 Comeback Goals 6
4 Negative Sequences 0
13 Killer Goals 5

Pressure

Alaves Metric Rayo Vallecano
5 Early Pressure 3
6 Late Pressure 5
0 Pressure Goals 0
0 Set Pieces 0

Timing Patterns

Alaves Metric Rayo Vallecano
5 Fast Starts 3
5 Half-time Spurts 7
8 Second Half Starts 4
6 Late Surges 5

Defense

Alaves Metric Rayo Vallecano
3 Early Conceded 1
9 Late Conceded 3
0 Set Piece Conceded 0
0 Pressure Conceded 0

Betting Recommendations

  • Second half winner: high probability of Alaves winning the second half.
  • Match outcome: Rayo Vallecano holds the overall timing advantage.

Summary

Alaves

Momentum: strong — reacts well to match swings. Pressure: moderate — periodically threatens. Defense: vulnerable early in matches.

Rayo Vallecano

Momentum: very strong — maintains success and responds well. Pressure: low — rarely creates clear chances. Defense: reliable at the start of matches.

Final advice

Teams look evenly matched across periods. Consider draw, low totals, or exact score.

Alaves
Rayo Vallecano

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-head statistics for Sat 23 May, 2026 @ 15:00 La Liga

18 Played 18
39% 7-6-5 Win Rate 22% 4-4-10
48 Form Index 41
6.81 Team Rating 6.67
74 eScored Comparison Category scores Margin-weighted average per category, then averaged. Alaves Rayo Vallecano Results 75 25 Attack 80 20 Defense 72 28 Control 47 53 Discipline 78 22 Efficiency 90 10 Average 74 26 26

Attack

1.33
Goals
0.83
1.23
Expected Goals
1.06
12.3
Shots
10.6
4.1
Shots on Target
3.5
5.8
Corners
4.7

Defense

1.28
Conceded
1.56
1.03
Expected Goals Against
1.51
10.3
Shots Allowed
12.3
+0.06
Goal Difference
-0.72
17%
Clean Sheets
22%

Possession & Passing

49%
Possession
52%
81%
Pass Accuracy
83%
398
Passes
413
322
Accurate Passes
344

Discipline

2
Yellow Cards
3.11
0.11
Red Cards
0.28
14.3
Fouls
14
1.8
Offsides
2

Efficiency

1.50
PPG
0.89
+0.10
Goals vs xG
-0.22
11%
Shot Conversion
8%
67%
Save %
62%
Team comparison
Prediction
Double chance : Alaves or draw
Goals Home: -2.5*
Goals Away: -2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano: Pre-match Stats Comparison

This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams ℹ️

Home/Away: Shows home matches for Alaves and away matches for Rayo Vallecano

Number of goals
Alaves
Under
Over
Rayo Vallecano
Under
Over
0.5
0% 0
100% 10
10% 1
90% 9
1.5
50% 5
50% 5
70% 7
30% 3
2.5
80% 8
20% 2
90% 9
10% 1
3.5
90% 9
10% 1
100% 10
0% 0
4.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Both teams to score
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Yes
80% 8
40% 4
No
20% 2
60% 6
1X2
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
40% 4
50% 5
X
40% 4
30% 3
2
20% 2
20% 2
Double Chance
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
12
60% 6
70% 7
1X
80% 8
80% 8
X2
60% 6
50% 5
Total Goals
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0-1
20% 2
30% 3
2-3
40% 4
50% 5
4+
40% 4
20% 2
Total Corners
Alaves
Under
Over
Rayo Vallecano
Under
Over
7.5
90% 9
10% 1
90% 9
10% 1
8.5
90% 9
10% 1
90% 9
10% 1
9.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
10.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Clean Sheet
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Yes
20% 2
50% 5
No
80% 8
50% 5
1X2 HT - FT
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
HT 1 - FT 1
20% 2
30% 3
HT 1 - FT 2
10% 1
0% 0
HT 1 - FT X
10% 1
0% 0
HT 2 - FT 1
20% 2
0% 0
HT 2 - FT 2
10% 1
20% 2
HT 2 - FT X
0% 0
0% 0
HT X - FT 1
0% 0
20% 2
HT X - FT 2
0% 0
0% 0
HT X - FT X
30% 3
30% 3
xG(xGa)
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
xG
1.24
1.44
xGa
0.95
1.4
Number of goals
Alaves
Under
Over
Rayo Vallecano
Under
Over
0.5
30% 3
70% 7
50% 5
50% 5
1.5
90% 9
10% 1
100% 10
0% 0
2.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
3.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
4.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Both teams to score
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Yes
30% 3
20% 2
No
70% 7
80% 8
1X2
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
40% 4
30% 3
X
30% 3
50% 5
2
30% 3
20% 2
Double Chance
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
12
70% 7
50% 5
1X
70% 7
80% 8
X2
60% 6
70% 7
Total Goals
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0-1
70% 7
60% 6
2-3
10% 1
40% 4
4+
20% 2
0% 0
Clean Sheet
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Yes
50% 5
60% 6
No
50% 5
40% 4
Number of goals
Alaves
Under
Over
Rayo Vallecano
Under
Over
0.5
30% 3
70% 7
30% 3
70% 7
1.5
80% 8
20% 2
90% 9
10% 1
2.5
90% 9
10% 1
100% 10
0% 0
3.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
4.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Both teams to score
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Yes
50% 5
30% 3
No
50% 5
70% 7
1X2
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
1
20% 2
40% 4
X
60% 6
50% 5
2
20% 2
10% 1
Double Chance
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
12
40% 4
50% 5
1X
80% 8
90% 9
X2
80% 8
60% 6
Total Goals
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
0-1
30% 3
70% 7
2-3
60% 6
20% 2
4+
10% 1
10% 1
Clean Sheet
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Yes
40% 4
60% 6
No
60% 6
40% 4
Missing Players
Alaves
2
d
F. Garcés
- Injured - Suspended
Rayo Vallecano
I. Akhomach
- Injured - Muscle Injury
17
m
Unai López
- Suspended - Yellow Cards
5
d
Luiz Felipe
- Injured - Hamstring Injury
29
m
Diego Méndez
- Injured - Knee Injury
7
m
Isi Palazón
- Suspended - Red Card
3
d
Pep Chavarría
- Injured - (questionable) Injury
18
m
Álvaro García
- Injured - (questionable) Injury
1.12 Expected goals 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Goal 4
8 Shots Off Goal 8
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
No Posts Found
In this exciting La Liga 2025-2026 matchup, Alaves will take on Rayo Vallecano as part of the 2025-2026 season in La Liga. This match is part of Matchweek 38 and will take place on 2026-05-23 at 2026-05-23 in the famous Estadio de Mendizorroza. The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Alaves, and the visiting side, Rayo Vallecano. The scoreline predictions suggest Draw or Rayo Vallecano. Kickoff Details: Date: 2026-05-23 Time: 19:00 Location: Estadio de Mendizorroza Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!

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