The Four Phases of the 2024-25 Premier League Season So Far

As we enter the enchanting relentlessness of football’s festive season, it’s easy to overlook the sporadic rhythm of the opening months, characterized by brief fixtures interrupted by the four words that most Premier League fans dread hearing: “It’s another international break.”

Fans may feel disheartened as their beloved players scatter across the globe three times in as many months, but these enforced pauses help segment the season into four tidy phases, which many managers leverage by focusing on a block of matches as a concentrated mini-season. For those of us observing from the sidelines, dividing the campaign into smaller segments provides more clarity than merely checking the league standings, especially as the season unfolds.

Welcome, then, to The Four Seasons of the Premier League So Far.

Season One: August 16-September 1

The weeks leading up to the new season were filled with the same burning questions. Could anyone derail Manchester City? How would Liverpool manage without Jurgen Klopp? What made Fulham a candidate for the top five? When the games finally commenced, it felt surprisingly familiar: Pep Guardiola’s team secured victories in their first three matches, with Erling Haaland netting hat-tricks in two of them. Liverpool also triumphed in their opening three games without conceding a single goal. Meanwhile, the promoted sides — along with Everton — faced struggles, and the sentiment as September began, with players departing for international duties, echoed fears that we were merely witnessing a rerun. However, intriguingly, in a world captivated by the term “delaying the restart,” the real excitement was yet to unfold.

Fifty-four per cent of Haaland’s Premier League goals this season came in August (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Match of the season: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-6 Chelsea

If there was one match in the first season (and yes, this terminology is sticking, so get accustomed to it) that hinted at the narratives that would unfold in 2024-25, it was Chelsea’s visit to Molineux. A hat-trick of assists from Cole Palmer wasn’t shocking. An actual hat-trick from Noni Madueke was only slightly more surprising. However, the fact that Wolves “won” the game on expected goals (xG) yet still fell 6-2 suggested that Gary O’Neil’s team was headed for a season filled with unusual misfortunes, while Enzo Maresca might devise a strategy to make the most of Chelsea’s talented squad.

Season Two: September 14-October 6

It’s easy to visualize the league standings after three games because that was indeed the state of affairs at that point, but from here on, each Premier League ‘season’ will reveal alternative narratives and truths.

There’s Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur posting the highest xG of Season Two (10.2) yet losing as many matches as they won (including that 3-2 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion, making Spurs the first team in Premier League history to lose 10-plus matches from a two-goal lead).

Then there was Arsenal’s record-setting 36 shots against Leicester City, a match they should have easily won, but it required a stoppage-time own goal from Wilfred Ndidi to reclaim the lead. Leicester themselves had the lowest xG for and the highest xG against in Season Two, yet they managed to secure five points from four matches. That could shout: Steve Cooper, but it also conveys: Potential Route To Survival. But not for Cooper. And perhaps not for Leicester.

Meanwhile, Manchester United’s Season Two record of W1 D2 L1 was par for the course this season, but it marked the beginning of the end for Erik ten Hag.

And what of Bournemouth, who garnered just three points from four outings in Season Two yet boasted solid underlying stats? That’s right, they were bound to be just fine.

A Season Two low point for Ange Postecoglou at Brighton (Bryn Lennon/Getty Images)

Match of the season: Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal

Only Chelsea matched Arsenal’s tally of 10 points in Season Two, with the 2-2 draw at Manchester City being the only match Mikel Arteta’s squad did not win during this segment of the campaign. Normally, securing a point against the reigning champions, while being down to 10 men for the entire second half, would be considered a solid outcome — and it may still turn out to be — but this encounter was pivotal more for Rodri’s severe knee injury than for the captivating attack-vs-defence spectacle that unfolded in the latter period of the game.

City concluded the match with a ‘field tilt’ of 90 percent, yet the day’s events left them facing an uphill struggle.

Season Three: October 19-November 10

Liverpool has held the Premier League’s top spot for much of 2024-25, but even accounting for Storm Darragh, Season Three is the only phase where they’ve indisputably outperformed every other squad. Their three victories included what might prove to be a critical 2-1 win against Chelsea and a potentially significant 2-2 draw at Arsenal.

Following them are Nottingham Forest (no player surpassed Chris Wood’s tally of four goals in Season Three, despite experiencing further jetlag for the New Zealand international) and, perplexingly, Manchester United. The confusion arises because this was when INEOS determined that the Ten Hag tenure had run its course. However, he oversaw only two matches in Season Three, one of which was the 2-1 loss to West Ham. Following this defeat, Ten Hag was dismissed due to lackluster performances in Seasons One and Two, and caretaker manager Ruud van Nistelrooy guided the team for the next two Season Three matches, achieving one win and one draw.

The inconsistency observed throughout the Premier League has sparked interest, and Season Three seems to epitomize that unpredictability. Seventeen of the teams won either one or two of their games, and no team boasted a goal difference better than +4 or worse than -5. How significant will this stretch be for Arsenal’s season? They failed to secure a victory in this section, relinquishing eight points to Liverpool in the title race.

Manchester United’s defeat at West Ham proved costly for Erik ten Hag (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Match of the season: Brentford 4-3 Ipswich Town

This match was a thrilling showcase of Premier League excitement and a testament to what is (narrowly) Brentford’s most remarkable Premier League season to date. No team scored more than their nine goals during this phase, and no team conceded more either. If you’re aiming for a mid-table finish, you might as well be incredibly entertaining, and this is precisely how Thomas Frank has developed his squad this season.

The only downside from this match was that Harry Clarke missed out on the exceedingly rare ‘Bednarek Treble’ (an own goal, a penalty conceded, and a red card in the same game) when the own goal was later attributed to Yoane Wissa.

Season Four: November 23-December 22

Now we enter a significant stretch of six matches (or five, if you happen to be Everton or Liverpool). Speaking of Arne Slot’s squad, it’s important to note that even three points from the postponed Goodison derby wouldn’t have made them the top team of Season Four. That distinction goes to Chelsea, who emerged victorious in every game they played except, notably, their visit to Goodison Park. Sean Dyche’s team had the lowest xG in Season Four but was commendable in terms of the second-best xG conceded. As every local DJ knows, you play the hits when it gets close to Christmas.

Forest accumulated 12 points despite recording a negative goal difference and xG, representing both positive (they secured precious points and climbed into the top four overall) and negative angles (is this consistent performance sustainable for a club vying for a Champions League spot?). The four worst teams were Southampton, Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and… Manchester City. This early 2000s revival is inching beyond control.

Match of the season: Newcastle United 3-3 Liverpool

There are few places better to be at Christmas than four points clear at the top with a game in hand, but there are several signs indicating that Liverpool’s previously smooth season is becoming more turbulent — and it certainly fluctuated in Season Four. Arne Slot’s team conceded three in a thrilling 6-3 victory at Tottenham just days prior, followed by two at home against Fulham, two away at Southampton, and three in this electrifying clash against Newcastle at the onset of December. Interestingly, the only team not to score against Liverpool in Season Four was Manchester City. Curious, indeed.

So there we have it: the autumn. Four seasons encapsulated within a single season, each with its own identity and stories. They illustrate Manchester City’s lively downturn, Bournemouth’s consistent evolution, Chelsea’s steady ascent, and Arsenal’s potentially disastrous winless span between the second and third international breaks (which may one day be branded as such).

Future installments of the 2024-25 season will encompass Christmas and New Year, the FA Cup-interrupted January and February, and, just in case you are savoring club football a tad too much, another international break in March.

(Top photo: Mohamed Salah scoring for Liverpool against Chelsea in October; by John Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images)