Premier League Saturday Insights: How Many Chances Do the Black Cats Have?

English Premier League

Stinch returns with his top betting tips for the Premier League on Saturday.

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe offers his insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 15…

Aston Villa v Arsenal Tip – Back a tight game

Aston Villa v Arsenal

This clash sees third-place Aston Villa welcoming leaders Arsenal. Villa has shown impressive form, winning eight of their last nine league matches, a marked improvement from their early-season struggles. However, their success comes with expected points of just 12.14 from their 24-point haul. Arsenal, on the other hand, is unbeaten in their last 11 league games, recording six clean sheets. This matchup is expected to be tightly contested, influenced by rotation and Arteta's tendency for low-scoring away games. Eighteen of Arsenal's last 27 away matches have seen Under 2.5 goals. Six of the last seven encounters at Villa Park also resulted in under 2.5 goals.

Bournemouth v Chelsea Tip – Back Over 2.5 goals

After four defeats in five matches, Bournemouth finds themselves struggling, having dropped from second to 14th. Despite this, they've consistently offered goals, with seven of their last nine matches hitting Over 2.5 goals. Chelsea’s recent form supports this with three or more goals in 14 of their last 18 games. With Cole Palmer back, a goal-heavy match seems likely.

Everton v Nottingham Forest Tip – Back Under 2.5 goals

I am inclined to back Under 2.5 goals in this matchup between David Moyes and Sean Dyche. Dyche returns to Everton and would relish a solid performance. Forest has seen back-to-back Under 2.5 goals matches, and historically, Dyche’s matches feature lower scoring; Everton's matches are averaging 2.66 goals per-game under his management.

David Moyes has overseen a 36% strike rate for Under 2.5 goals with Everton, the lowest in the Premier League. Out of 11 encounters during their careers, seven have concluded with fewer than three goals.

Man City v Sunderland Tip – Back Haaland to score multiple goals

Erling Haaland has netted 100 Premier League goals in just 111 appearances, achieving this milestone quicker than any player in history. This season, he has already scored 20 goals in 18 matches across all competitions. Given Sunderland's trends, particularly conceding numerous shots, this match could provide Haaland with ample opportunities to add to his tally.

The Black Cats have the third highest shots conceded per game and have underperformed defensively relative to their expected goals, making them ripe for conceding multiple goals.

Newcastle v Burnley Tip – How to back a home win at 11/10

Burnley finds themselves in dire straits with five consecutive defeats. They have conceded two or more goals in five of six recent matches while averaging the most shots conceded per game. To capitalize on Newcastle being mid-table in goals scored and xG, backing them at 11/10 with Under 3.5 goals seems prudent, given the rigorous schedule and potential rotation of key players.

Tottenham v Brentford Tip – Back goals, goals, goals

The Thomas Frank derby should promise entertainment, especially given Brentford's poor form. They've conceded multiple goals in their last four league games. Their matches have consistently produced Over 2.5 goals, with Brentford itself averaging high goal rates for and against.

Leeds v Liverpool Tip – Back Overs on Saturday night

Leeds has been part of high-scoring fixtures recently, emphasizing the expectation of more goals against a fragile Liverpool defense. With both teams averaging high goals scored and conceded this season, this match could easily surpass 2.5 goals.

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