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Southampton vs Derby: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Saturday, 11 April, 2026 9:00
No prediction data available for this match.
No betting tips available for this match.
No prediction data available for this match.
Championship 2025-2026 – Group #1
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
10
6
8
4
23
20
3
26
11
7
5
6
25
25
0
26
12
7
4
7
20
22
-2
25
13
7
4
7
22
28
-6
25
14
6
6
6
28
25
3
24
15
6
6
6
24
23
1
24
Last 6 Matches
Southampton
VS
Derby
4/6 (67%)
Victories
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Draws
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Defeats
2/6 (33%)
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.50
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
1.33
Avg Goals Conceded
1.50
67%
BTTS %
100%
50%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
17%
1.64
Avg xG
0.94
No predictions available for win/draw probability for this match.
Unable to calculate goals probability for this match due to missing prediction data.
Unable to calculate BTTS probability for this match due to missing prediction data.
Expected Points not available for this match.
1.31
xG [Total: 2.20]
0.89
1
Yellow Cards [Total: 4]
3
6
Corners [Total: 9]
4
1
Offsides [Total: 2]
1
10
Fouls [Total: 23]
13
4
Shots on Goal [Total: 6]
2
In this exciting Championship 2025-2026 - Regular Season matchup, Southampton will take on Derby as part of the 2025-2026 season in Championship. This match is part of Matchweek 42 and will take place on 2026-04-11 at 2026-04-11 in the famous St. Mary's Stadium.
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Southampton, and the visiting side, Derby. The scoreline predictions suggest .
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2026-04-11
Time: 14:00
Location: St. Mary's Stadium
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Trends for Southampton vs Derby Football 11 Apr, 2026 9:00
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 7 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
Defensive Fortress
Southampton have league's best defense — hard to break down
-
Dominant Chance Creation
Southampton create high-quality chances consistently (xG 1.5+) — strong attacking threat with quality service
+5 more advanced patterns are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 7 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for Southampton vs Derby, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner
Southampton(3 trends)
- League Best DefenseLeague8/870%Southampton concede only 0.88 goals/match at home (excellent defense)
- High xG PerformanceRecent14/14100%Southampton create many chances (xG 1.5+) in 14 of their last 14 Championship (Home) matches
- High xG PerformanceRecent30/30100%Southampton create many chances (xG 1.5+) in 30 of their last 30 Championship matches
Derby(2 trends)
- Efficient ScoringRecent12/1580%Derby efficiently convert chances (high accuracy) in 12 of their last 15 Championship (Away) matches
- Efficient ScoringRecent23/3077%Derby efficiently convert chances (high accuracy) in 23 of their last 30 Championship matches
⚽ Both Teams To Score
Southampton(1 trends)
- Strong DefenseLeague4/850%Southampton score well (1.25/match) but have strong defense at home (0.88 conceded) - opponents fail to score in 50% of matches
Derby(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague7/978%Derby score (1.44/match) and concede (1.33/match) regularly in away matches - BTTS in 78% of matches (league avg: 58%)
🛡️ Double Chance
Southampton(1 trends)
- League Best DefenseLeague8/870%Southampton concede only 0.88 goals/match at home (excellent defense)
⚡ Team Total Goals
Southampton(2 trends)
- League Best DefenseLeague8/870%Southampton concede only 0.88 goals/match at home (excellent defense)
- Defensive SolidarityRecent14/14100%Southampton rarely concede chances (xGA under 1.0) in 14 of their last 14 Championship (Home) matches
Derby(1 trends)
- Conceded Under 1.5 GoalsRecent23/3077%Derby conceded under 1.5 goals in 23 of their last 30 Championship matches
🟨 Cards Over/Under
Southampton(1 trends)
- High Card MatchesLeague18/1884.5%Southampton average 2.1 cards/match in all matches (+13% above league avg 1.8)
Derby(3 trends)
- High Card MatchesLeague18/1890%Derby average 2.4 cards/match in all matches (+35% above league avg 1.8) — rank #1 in league
- Many CardsRecent25/3083%Derby receive 2+ cards in 25 of their last 30 Championship matches
- Many CardsRecent12/1580%Derby receive 2+ cards in 12 of their last 15 Championship (Away) matches
Both teams show aggressive play - • H2H average: 6 total cards/match
🚩 Corners Over/Under
Southampton(3 trends) — avg 6.9 (+40% above league)
- Many CornersLeague8/885%Southampton average 6.9 corners/match at home (+40% above league avg 4.9)
- Many CornersRecent11/1479%Southampton win 6+ corners in 11 of their last 14 Championship (Home) matches
- Corner DominanceRecent11/1479%Southampton dominate corners (5+ and more than opponent) in 11 of their last 14 Championship (Home) matches
Derby(2 trends) — avg 4.4 (-11% below league)
- Few CornersLeague9/976%Derby average 4.4 corners/match in away matches (-11% below league avg 4.9)
- Few CornersRecent12/1486%Derby win 4 or fewer corners in 12 of their last 14 Championship (Away) matches
Combined average: 11.3 corners/match (Southampton 6.9 + Derby 4.4)
+18 Streak trends are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all advanced streak trends and patterns
Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
Southampton vs Derby
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
💡 Recommendation: Teams are equal in strength. Consider bets on draw or exact score.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 Southampton
Early Strength
Moderate
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.35
Pressure
0.12
✈️ Derby
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.25
Pressure
0.11
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 Southampton - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
3
Avg. Goals per Match
0.15
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
✈️ Derby - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
2
Avg. Goals per Match
0.1
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.3
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 Southampton - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
7
Comeback Goals
11
Negative Sequences
4
Killer Goals
6
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
3
Late Pressure
8
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
3
Half-time Spurts
5
Second Half Starts
4
Late Surges
8
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
7
✈️ Derby - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
3
Comeback Goals
11
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
6
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
2
Late Pressure
8
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
2
Half-time Spurts
4
Second Half Starts
4
Late Surges
8
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
5
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- Overall Result: Teams are equal in strength
- Draw: Consider draw bets
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Home +0.099
Pressure (Advantage)
Home +0.013
Timing (Advantage)
Home +0.005 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Away +0.015 (away team better)
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (Southampton):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Derby):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Teams are approximately equal in strength across all periods. Consider bets on draw, low total goals, or exact score.
Southampton vs Derby Head-to-head statistics for Sat 11 Apr, 2026 @ 9:00 Championship
Southampton vs Derby: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Home/Away: Shows home matches for Southampton and away matches for Derby
Number of goals
Number of goals
Southampton
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
0.5
20%
2
80%
8
10%
1
90%
9
1.5
50%
5
50%
5
50%
5
50%
5
2.5
70%
7
30%
3
90%
9
10%
1
3.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Southampton
Derby
Yes
70%
7
70%
7
No
30%
3
30%
3
1X2
1X2
Southampton
Derby
1
40%
4
60%
6
X
20%
2
10%
1
2
40%
4
30%
3
Double Chance
Double Chance
Southampton
Derby
12
80%
8
90%
9
1X
60%
6
70%
7
X2
60%
6
40%
4
Total Goals
Total Goals
Southampton
Derby
0-1
10%
1
30%
3
2-3
50%
5
50%
5
4+
40%
4
20%
2
Total Corners
Total Corners
Southampton
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
7.5
80%
8
20%
2
70%
7
30%
3
8.5
90%
9
10%
1
80%
8
20%
2
9.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
10.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Southampton
Derby
Yes
20%
2
20%
2
No
80%
8
80%
8
1X2 HT - FT
1X2 HT - FT
Southampton
Derby
HT 1 - FT 1
30%
3
50%
5
HT 1 - FT 2
10%
1
20%
2
HT 1 - FT X
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
10%
1
10%
1
HT 2 - FT X
0%
0
0%
0
HT X - FT 1
10%
1
10%
1
HT X - FT 2
20%
2
0%
0
HT X - FT X
20%
2
10%
1
xG(xGa)
xG(xGa)
Southampton
Derby
xG
1.72
0.98
xGa
1.29
1.28
Number of goals
Number of goals
Southampton
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
0.5
40%
4
60%
6
20%
2
80%
8
1.5
70%
7
30%
3
90%
9
10%
1
2.5
80%
8
20%
2
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Southampton
Derby
Yes
40%
4
10%
1
No
60%
6
90%
9
1X2
1X2
Southampton
Derby
1
40%
4
70%
7
X
50%
5
20%
2
2
10%
1
10%
1
Double Chance
Double Chance
Southampton
Derby
12
50%
5
80%
8
1X
90%
9
90%
9
X2
60%
6
30%
3
Total Goals
Total Goals
Southampton
Derby
0-1
50%
5
80%
8
2-3
40%
4
20%
2
4+
10%
1
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Southampton
Derby
Yes
50%
5
80%
8
No
50%
5
20%
2
Number of goals
Number of goals
Southampton
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
0.5
70%
7
30%
3
50%
5
50%
5
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
90%
9
10%
1
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Southampton
Derby
Yes
20%
2
40%
4
No
80%
8
60%
6
1X2
1X2
Southampton
Derby
1
20%
2
20%
2
X
40%
4
50%
5
2
40%
4
30%
3
Double Chance
Double Chance
Southampton
Derby
12
60%
6
50%
5
1X
60%
6
70%
7
X2
80%
8
80%
8
Total Goals
Total Goals
Southampton
Derby
0-1
60%
6
50%
5
2-3
30%
3
40%
4
4+
10%
1
10%
1
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Southampton
Derby
Yes
50%
5
40%
4
No
50%
5
60%
6
No predictions available for this match
No predictions available for this match
Southampton
Derby
Played:
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
1
1
Wins
0
0
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
1
1
Goals
1
1
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
1
2
2
Yellow Cards
4
4
0
Red Cards
0
0
Clean Sheets
0
3
3
Corners
3
3
8
8
Fouls
11
11
2
2
Offsides
1
1
11
11
Shots
9
9
5
5
Shots on Goal
5
5
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 8 | 10 | 18 | |||
| Wins | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||
| Draws | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||
| Losses | 2 | 4 | 6 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.3 | 10 | 1.8 | 18 | 1.6 | 28 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 7 | 1.8 | 18 | 1.4 | 25 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.5 | 12 | 2.4 | 24 | 2 | 36 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0.4 | 3 | 0 | 0.2 | 3 | |
| Corners | 6.9 | 55 | 4.3 | 43 | 5.4 | 98 |
| Fouls | 9.9 | 79 | 10.8 | 108 | 10.4 | 187 |
| Offsides | 1.1 | 9 | 2.2 | 22 | 1.7 | 31 |
| Shots | 15.4 | 123 | 12.7 | 127 | 13.9 | 250 |
| Shots on Goal | 4.8 | 38 | 5.3 | 53 | 5.1 | 91 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | |||
| Wins | 3 | 4 | 7 | |||
| Draws | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||
| Losses | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.3 | 12 | 1.4 | 13 | 1.4 | 25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 13 | 1.3 | 12 | 1.4 | 25 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.2 | 20 | 2.7 | 24 | 2.4 | 44 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Clean Sheets | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 3 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 44 | 3.9 | 35 | 4.4 | 79 |
| Fouls | 11.8 | 106 | 13 | 117 | 12.4 | 223 |
| Offsides | 1.9 | 17 | 0.9 | 8 | 1.4 | 25 |
| Shots | 9.1 | 82 | 7 | 63 | 8.1 | 145 |
| Shots on Goal | 3 | 27 | 2.4 | 22 | 2.7 | 49 |
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