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UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 • First qualifying round
Preview
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
9th place
Form
VS
20:00
11 Mar 2026
Manchester City
Manchester City
8th place
Form
AI Prediction Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Preview
Value Bets
Trends
H2H Stats

Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Wednesday, 11 March, 2026 15:00

Winner (1x2)3.54
Real Madrid to Win
Probability 63%
Total Goals1.63
Over 2.5
Probability 73%
Both Teams to Score1.52
Yes
Probability 70%
Real Madrid Total1.30
Home Over 0.5
Probability 92%
Manchester City Total1.32
Away Under 2.5
Probability 83%
Double Chance1.83
Real Madrid/Draw
Probability 82%
Asian Handicap1.30
Real Madrid +1.5
Probability 93%
Best Tip
Value
Total - Away Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Odds 1.32
Win Prob. 84.9% EV: +12.0%
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Prediction League
UEFA Champions League 2025-2026
20:00
Real Madrid W 63%
:
Manchester City W 18%

Scoring Rules

Points are calculated automatically based on your predicted score. Maximum 5 points per match.

Category Points Condition
Exact Score 5 Your prediction matches the final score exactly.
Outcome (1X2) 2 You correctly predicted the winner or a draw.
BTTS Bonus +1 You correctly predicted if both teams score (or if at least one doesn't).
Total Goals Bonus +1 You correctly predicted if total goals are Over or Under 2.5.

Examples:

  • Match result: 3:1 (Home Win, BTTS: Yes, Total: Over 2.5)
    • Prediction 3:1 → 5 points (Exact Score)
    • Prediction 2:1 → 4 points (Outcome: 2 + BTTS: +1 + Total: +1)
    • Prediction 2:0 → 2 points (Outcome: 2, BTTS: No/Yes mismatch)
    • Prediction 1:1 → 1 point (BTTS: +1, Outcome mismatch)
  • Match result: 2:0 (Home Win, BTTS: No, Total: Under 2.5)
    • Prediction 2:0 → 5 points (Exact Score)
    • Prediction 1:0 → 4 points (Outcome: 2 + BTTS: +1 + Total: +1)
    • Prediction 3:1 → 2 points (Outcome: 2, BTTS: Yes/No mismatch)
Real Madrid
w l w l w
18 Played
15 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
2.3 (41 total)
xG
2.40 (43.6 total)
Shots per Match
19.8 (356 total)
Shots on Target
7.4 (37% acc)
Corners
6.9 (124 total)
Defense
Conceded
0.8 per match
xGa
1.00 per match
Clean Sheets
6 (33%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
2.1 avg
Red Cards
0.2 (4 total)
Fouls
10.6 (190 total)
Offsides
1.4 (26 total)
19 Played
12 Wins
3 Draws
4 Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
2.1 (39 total)
xG
1.70 (32.2 total)
Shots per Match
15.9 (303 total)
Shots on Target
5.9 (37% acc)
Corners
5.6 (106 total)
Defense
Conceded
1.2 per match
xGa
1.30 per match
Clean Sheets
8 (42%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.7 avg
Red Cards
0.2 (3 total)
Fouls
10.3 (195 total)
Offsides
1.3 (25 total)
37 Played
27 Wins
3 Draws
7 Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
2.2 (80 total)
xG
2.00 (75.8 total)
Shots per Match
17.8 (659 total)
Shots on Target
6.6 (37% acc)
Corners
6.2 (230 total)
Defense
Conceded
1 per match
xGa
1.10 per match
Clean Sheets
14 (38%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.9 avg
Red Cards
0.2 (7 total)
Fouls
10.4 (385 total)
Offsides
1.4 (51 total)
Manchester City
w w w w d
20 Played
15 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
2.7 (54 total)
xG
1.80 (35.9 total)
Shots per Match
16 (320 total)
Shots on Target
6.5 (40% acc)
Corners
6.4 (127 total)
Defense
Conceded
0.8 per match
xGa
0.80 per match
Clean Sheets
9 (45%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.3 avg
Red Cards
0 (0 total)
Fouls
9.3 (185 total)
Offsides
1.1 (22 total)
18 Played
9 Wins
4 Draws
5 Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
1.7 (30 total)
xG
1.60 (29.5 total)
Shots per Match
12.7 (228 total)
Shots on Target
4.5 (36% acc)
Corners
4 (72 total)
Defense
Conceded
1.2 per match
xGa
1.30 per match
Clean Sheets
6 (33%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
2.6 avg
Red Cards
0.1 (1 total)
Fouls
10.3 (185 total)
Offsides
1.4 (25 total)
38 Played
24 Wins
7 Draws
7 Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
2.2 (84 total)
xG
1.70 (65.3 total)
Shots per Match
14.4 (548 total)
Shots on Target
5.5 (38% acc)
Corners
5.2 (199 total)
Defense
Conceded
1 per match
xGa
1.00 per match
Clean Sheets
15 (39%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.9 avg
Red Cards
0 (1 total)
Fouls
9.7 (370 total)
Offsides
1.2 (47 total)

Probable Scores Heatmap

xG: 2.58 vs 1.40
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.51%
0:1
3.16%
0:2
1.53%
0:3
0.53%
0:4
0.14%
0:5
0.03%
1
1:0
6.52%
1:1
7.3%
1:2
4.45%
1:3
1.73%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.11%
2
2:0
6.95%
2:1
9.48%
🔥
2:2
6.29%
2:3
2.71%
2:4
0.86%
2:5
0.22%
3
3:0
5.15%
3:1
7.85%
3:2
5.79%
3:3
2.76%
3:4
0.96%
3:5
0.26%
4
4:0
2.86%
4:1
4.82%
4:2
3.92%
4:3
2.05%
4:4
0.78%
4:5
0.23%
5
5:0
1.27%
5:1
2.35%
5:2
2.09%
5:3
1.19%
5:4
0.49%
5:5
0.16%
Hotspot: 2:1 (9.5%)
Total Boundaries: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Probability Distribution by Total Goals

2.5%
0
9.7%
1
15.8%
2
19.6%
3
18.9%
4
15.1%
5
10.0%
6
5.3%
7
2.2%
8
0.7%
9
0.2%
10
Most Probable

🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions

Real MadridHDPManchester City
19.2%
Very Low@ 16.00
-2.5
2.1%
@ 7.00Very Low
28.3%
Low@ 14.50
-2
4.6%
@ 5.90Very Low
37.4%
Low@ 7.00
-1.5
7.2%
@ 4.03Very Low
48.9%
Medium@ 6.60
-1
13.2%
@ 3.10Very Low
60.3%
High@ 3.55
-0.5
19.2%
@ 2.05Very Low
80.8%
Very High@ 1.90
+0.5
39.7%
@ 1.48Low
86.8%
Very High@ 1.45
+1
51.2%
@ 1.11Medium
92.9%
Very High@ 1.30
+1.5
62.6%
@ 1.10High
95.4%
Very High@ 1.13
+2
71.7%
@ 1.02High
97.9%
Very High@ 1.10
+2.5
80.8%
@ 1.02Very High

Team Total Predictions

Real MadridOutcomeManchester City
66.0%
High@ 2.50
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 1.83Low
34.1%
Low@ 1.58
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 2.10High
40.2%
Medium@ 6.00
Over 2.5
15.1%
@ 3.50Very Low
59.8%
Medium@ 1.14
Under 2.5
84.9%
@ 1.30Very High
In this exciting UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 - Qualifying rounds matchup, Real Madrid will take on Manchester City as part of the 2025-2026 season in UEFA Champions League. This match is part of Matchweek 1 and will take place on 2026-03-11 at 2026-03-11 in the famous . The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Real Madrid, and the visiting side, Manchester City. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : Real Madrid or draw. Kickoff Details: Date: 2026-03-11 Time: 20:00 Location: Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!

Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Real Madrid vs Manchester City Wednesday, Mar 11th, 2026 at 15:00 Football

AI Value Bets
10 Found

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Match Winner Real Madrid
High Value
Prob: 63.2%
EV: +123.8%
Stake: $0.98
3.54
Home Total Real Madrid Over 1.5
High Value
Prob: 66%
EV: +64.9%
Stake: $1.67
2.50
Double Chance 1X
High Value
Prob: 81.6%
EV: +49.4%
Stake: $3.01
1.83
Asian Handicap Real Madrid +1
High Value
Prob: 86.8%
EV: +25.9%
Stake: $5.56
1.45
Correct Score 2:1
High Value
Prob: 9%
EV: +22.7%
Stake: $0.20
13.63
Goals O/U Over 2.5
High Value
Prob: 73.5%
EV: +21.9%
Stake: $3.79
1.66
Asian Handicap Real Madrid +1.5
High Value
Prob: 93%
EV: +20.9%
Stake: $8.33
1.30
Total Home Over 0.5
High Value
Prob: 92.4%
EV: +20.1%
Stake: $8.33
1.30
Win to Nil Manchester City NOT Win to Nil
High Value
Prob: 94.7%
EV: +15.6%
Stake: $10.00
1.22
Win To Nil Away No
Value
Prob: 94.9%
EV: +14.8%
Stake: $10.00
1.21
Odds Comparison
Updated: 2026-03-09 18:03:18
spinner

Trends for Real Madrid vs Manchester City Football 11 Mar, 2026 15:00

🤖 AI Pattern Insights

Our model identified 7 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:

  • 🎯
    Goal Fest Potential

    Both teams in high-scoring form — Over 2.5 goals likely with offensive firepower on display

  • 📈
    Chance Creation Masterclass

    Both teams create high-quality chances (xG 1.5+) — expect end-to-end attacking football with multiple big chances

+5 more advanced patterns are hidden

Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 7 AI-powered insights

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🎯 Betting Analysis

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

🔮 Main Prediction by Periods

⏰ First Half: Manchester City is stronger in the first half (16 vs 10).
🔄 Second Half: Real Madrid is stronger in the second half (17 vs 11).
⚡ Final Stage: Real Madrid is stronger in the final minutes (9 vs 5).

💡 Recommendation: Teams are equal in strength. Consider bets on draw or exact score.

⚔️ Team Comparison

🏠 Real Madrid

Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.25
Pressure
0.14

✈️ Manchester City

Early Strength
Moderate
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.3
Pressure
0.12

⏰ Match Periods Analysis

📊 Periods Explanation:

Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.

First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.

Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.

Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.

🏠 Real Madrid - Periods

🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
4
Avg. Goals per Match
0.2
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
10
Avg. Goals per Match
0.5
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
17
Avg. Goals per Match
0.85
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
9
Avg. Goals per Match
0.45

✈️ Manchester City - Periods

🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
16
Avg. Goals per Match
0.8
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
11
Avg. Goals per Match
0.55
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25

🏆 Detailed Team Analysis

🏠 Real Madrid - Details

📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
8
Comeback Goals
6
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
9
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
4
Late Pressure
9
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
4
Half-time Spurts
6
Second Half Starts
8
Late Surges
9
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
5

✈️ Manchester City - Details

📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
11
Comeback Goals
7
Negative Sequences
5
Killer Goals
9
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
5
Late Pressure
5
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
5
Half-time Spurts
11
Second Half Starts
6
Late Surges
5
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
1
Late Conceded
7

💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods

  • ⏰ Away First Half: Manchester City is stronger in the first half (16 vs 10)
  • First Half Result: Consider Manchester City to win the first half
  • 🔄 Second Half Dominance: Real Madrid shows superior performance after the break (17 vs 11 goals)
  • Second Half Winner: High probability of Real Madrid winning the second half
  • ⚡ Final Stage Mastery: Real Madrid excels in the closing minutes (9 vs 5 late goals)
  • Last Goal Scorer: High probability of Real Madrid scoring the final goal
  • Late Goals Market: Consider bets on goals after 75th minute
  • Overall Result: Teams are equal in strength
  • Draw: Consider draw bets
  • Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
  • Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams

📊 Factor Breakdown

💡 Factor Explanations:

Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.

Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.

Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).

Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.

Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.048
Pressure (Advantage)
Home +0.027
Timing (Advantage)
Away +0 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Away +0.015 (away team better)

📝 Detailed Summary

🏠 Home Team Analysis (Real Madrid):

Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.

✈️ Away Team Analysis (Manchester City):

Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Reliable at the start of the match.

🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:

Home team has a significant advantage in the second half and final stage. We recommend bets on second half result, late goals, and home team victory.

Real Madrid
Manchester City

Real Madrid vs Manchester City Head-to-head statistics for Wed 11 Mar, 2026 @ 15:00 UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions League

#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
Team comparison
Prediction
Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Goals Home: -3.5*
Goals Away: -2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Real Madrid
VS
Manchester City
Last 5 Head-to-Head Matches
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Wins
Attack
Goals Scored
2.6 (13)
2 (10)
xG
2.20
1.80
Shots
15 (75)
13 (65)
Shots on Target
5.4 (27)
6.4 (32)
Corners
4.2 (21)
5.6 (28)
Defense
Conceded
2 (10)
2.6 (13)
xGa
1.80
2.20
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.8 (9)
2 (10)
Fouls
9.6 (48)
12.8 (64)
Offsides
1.4 (7)
1.8 (9)
10 Dec
- 20:00
Real Madrid
Manchester City
1.40
xG
2.53
1
2
Prob 64%
Double Chance 1X
Odd 1.68
19 Feb
- 20:00
Real Madrid
Manchester City
1.80
xG
1.32
3
1
11 Feb
- 20:00
Manchester City
Real Madrid
1.60
xG
3.30
2
3
4 May
- 19:00
Real Madrid
Manchester City
3
1
AET
26 Apr
- 19:00
Manchester City
Real Madrid
4
3
Last 6 Matches
Real Madrid
VS
Manchester City
4/6 (67%) Victories 4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%) Draws 2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%) Defeats 0/6 (0%)
2.00 PPG 2.00
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 2.00
1.00 Avg Goals Conceded 1.00
67% BTTS % 67%
17% Over 2.5 Goals Scored % 17%
1.54 Avg xG 1.81
Real Madrid
W L W L W
La Liga 2025-2026
6 Mar 2026 - 20:00
Celta Vigo
1 2
Real Madrid
La Liga 2025-2026
2 Mar 2026 - 20:00
Real Madrid
0 1
Getafe
UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 - Qualifying rounds
25 Feb 2026 - 20:00
Real Madrid
2 1
Benfica
La Liga 2025-2026
21 Feb 2026 - 17:30
Osasuna
2 1
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 - Qualifying rounds
17 Feb 2026 - 20:00
Benfica
0 1
Real Madrid
La Liga 2025-2026
14 Feb 2026 - 20:00
Real Madrid
4 1
Real Sociedad
Manchester City
W W W W D
Premier League 2025-2026
4 Mar 2026 - 19:30
Manchester City
2 2
Nottingham Forest
Premier League 2025-2026
28 Feb 2026 - 17:30
Leeds
0 1
Manchester City
Premier League 2025-2026
21 Feb 2026 - 20:00
Manchester City
2 1
Newcastle
Premier League 2025-2026
11 Feb 2026 - 19:30
Manchester City
3 0
Fulham
Premier League 2025-2026
8 Feb 2026 - 16:30
Liverpool
1 2
Manchester City
Premier League 2025-2026
1 Feb 2026 - 16:30
Tottenham
2 2
Manchester City

Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Pre-match Stats Comparison

This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams ℹ️

Home/Away: Shows home matches for Real Madrid and away matches for Manchester City

Number of goals
Real Madrid
Under
Over
Manchester City
Under
Over
0.5
10% 1
90% 9
10% 1
90% 9
1.5
30% 3
70% 7
30% 3
70% 7
2.5
90% 9
10% 1
90% 9
10% 1
3.5
90% 9
10% 1
100% 10
0% 0
4.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Both teams to score
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Yes
60% 6
50% 5
No
40% 4
50% 5
1X2
Real Madrid
Manchester City
1
70% 7
60% 6
X
0% 0
20% 2
2
30% 3
20% 2
Double Chance
Real Madrid
Manchester City
12
100% 10
80% 8
1X
70% 7
80% 8
X2
30% 3
40% 4
Total Goals
Real Madrid
Manchester City
0-1
20% 2
10% 1
2-3
60% 6
60% 6
4+
20% 2
30% 3
Total Corners
Real Madrid
Under
Over
Manchester City
Under
Over
7.5
70% 7
30% 3
90% 9
10% 1
8.5
80% 8
20% 2
90% 9
10% 1
9.5
90% 9
10% 1
100% 10
0% 0
10.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Clean Sheet
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Yes
30% 3
40% 4
No
70% 7
60% 6
1X2 HT - FT
Real Madrid
Manchester City
HT 1 - FT 1
20% 2
50% 5
HT 1 - FT 2
0% 0
0% 0
HT 1 - FT X
0% 0
20% 2
HT 2 - FT 1
0% 0
0% 0
HT 2 - FT 2
30% 3
10% 1
HT 2 - FT X
0% 0
0% 0
HT X - FT 1
50% 5
10% 1
HT X - FT 2
0% 0
10% 1
HT X - FT X
0% 0
0% 0
xG(xGa)
Real Madrid
Manchester City
xG
1.47
1.5
xGa
1.22
1
Number of goals
Real Madrid
Under
Over
Manchester City
Under
Over
0.5
50% 5
50% 5
30% 3
70% 7
1.5
90% 9
10% 1
50% 5
50% 5
2.5
90% 9
10% 1
90% 9
10% 1
3.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
4.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Both teams to score
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Yes
40% 4
10% 1
No
60% 6
90% 9
1X2
Real Madrid
Manchester City
1
20% 2
70% 7
X
50% 5
20% 2
2
30% 3
10% 1
Double Chance
Real Madrid
Manchester City
12
50% 5
80% 8
1X
70% 7
90% 9
X2
80% 8
30% 3
Total Goals
Real Madrid
Manchester City
0-1
60% 6
40% 4
2-3
30% 3
60% 6
4+
10% 1
0% 0
Clean Sheet
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Yes
40% 4
80% 8
No
60% 6
20% 2
Number of goals
Real Madrid
Under
Over
Manchester City
Under
Over
0.5
10% 1
90% 9
70% 7
30% 3
1.5
80% 8
20% 2
90% 9
10% 1
2.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
3.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
4.5
100% 10
0% 0
100% 10
0% 0
Both teams to score
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Yes
30% 3
30% 3
No
70% 7
70% 7
1X2
Real Madrid
Manchester City
1
60% 6
10% 1
X
30% 3
60% 6
2
10% 1
30% 3
Double Chance
Real Madrid
Manchester City
12
70% 7
40% 4
1X
90% 9
70% 7
X2
40% 4
90% 9
Total Goals
Real Madrid
Manchester City
0-1
50% 5
50% 5
2-3
50% 5
50% 5
4+
0% 0
0% 0
Clean Sheet
Real Madrid
Manchester City
Yes
70% 7
50% 5
No
30% 3
50% 5
Missing Players
Real Madrid
4
d
- Injured - Calf Injury
- Injured - Hamstring Injury
- Injured - Tooth injury
- Injured - Muscle Injury
- Injured - Hamstring Injury
10
f
- Injured - Knee Injury
11
m
- Injured - Knee Injury
Manchester City
- Injured - Broken Leg
- Injured - Heel Injury
41
m
- Injured - Inactive
2.51 xG 1.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Goal 5
9 Shots Off Goal 8
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
Reports: Liverpool and Man City Keeping a Close Eye on 'Exceptional' Bundesliga Star
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Third Real Madrid Player Sent Off from the Bench Against Celta Vigo
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Real Madrid Player Assists Off the Field Due to Injury Against Celta Vigo
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Real Madrid vs. Celta in La Liga: Start Time, Broadcast Details, and Team Line-ups on
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Guardiola: "I’m confident in my ability to secure the Premier League title without arrogance"
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Presenter Demands Accountability from Sunderland After Loss at Etihad -
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9 Players We’re Surprised Missed The Athletic’s List of 100 Greatest Footballers Ever
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Liverpool Targeting £40-50m "Top Player" While Barcelona Express Strong Interest
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Premier League Odds: Manchester City Reduced to 13/10 for Title After Arsenal's Defeat to Villa
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Gary Neville shares new Premier League title insight following Arsenal's defeat and Manchester City's victory on.
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