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Parma vs Fiorentina: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Saturday, 27 December, 2025 5:30
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Upgrade to PremiumParma vs Fiorentina: A Crucial Clash in Serie A
Stakes Are High for Both Teams
This match between Parma and Fiorentina is pivotal for both sides as they occupy the lower end of the Serie A table. Currently, Parma sits in 17th place with 14 points, while Fiorentina is struggling at the bottom in 20th with just 9 points. A win for either team could provide a much-needed boost in their fight against relegation.
Current Form & Trends
Both teams are in dire form, but recent performances tell different stories.
- Parma: The home side has struggled significantly at their fortress, going winless in their last five home matches. They have managed only two draws and three losses, scoring a mere 0.6 goals per game while conceding 1.6, which highlights their vulnerability at the back.
- Fiorentina: The visitors have seen a mixed bag of results recently, with their last match being a resounding 5-1 victory against Udinese. However, their away form has been poor, as they have not secured a win in their last five away games, averaging only 0.8 goals scored while conceding 2.4.
Head-to-Head
The historical matchups between these two teams have been closely contested, with no wins for either side in the last two games. Both encounters ended in draws (0-0 and 1-1), indicating a tendency for stalemates when they meet.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Parma will need to solidify their defense, especially with A. Circati ruled out due to injury. The home side's reliance on a disciplined backline will be tested against Fiorentina's attacking prowess. Fiorentina, meanwhile, will look to exploit their midfield presence, particularly with N. Fagioli available after injury. His ability to control the tempo could be crucial as they seek to break down Parma's defense. Without R. Mandragora, Fiorentina might lack some balance, but the return of Fagioli offers a glimmer of hope.
AI Prediction
Winner Prediction: Draw. The statistical model indicates a fairly evenly matched contest with probabilities suggesting a tight game.
Predicted Score: 1:1.
Reasoning: Given both teams' struggles to secure wins and the lack of firepower in their recent performances, a draw seems the most plausible outcome, especially with the head-to-head history favoring stalemates.
Betting Tips
Analyzing the provided statistics reveals some intriguing betting opportunities.
- Safe Bet (High Confidence): Goals Over/Under - Under 1.5 @ 1.58 (63.7%). This bet reflects the statistical model's confidence in a low-scoring affair given both teams' recent goal-scoring woes.
- Value Bet: Match Winner - Draw @ 3.25 (28%). The implied probability for a draw is significantly lower than the statistical prediction, making it a valuable bet despite its lower confidence level.
Bet responsibly.
Prediction League
Probable Scores Heatmap
xG: 1.15 vs 1.30
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.69%
0:1
11.23%
0:2
7.26%
0:3
3.13%
0:4
1.01%
0:5
0.26%
1
1:0
9.93%
⭐
1:1
12.93%
🔥
1:2
8.42%
1:3
3.65%
1:4
1.19%
1:5
0.31%
2
2:0
5.67%
⭐
2:1
7.44%
⭐
2:2
4.89%
2:3
2.14%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.18%
3
3:0
2.16%
⭐
3:1
2.86%
3:2
1.89%
3:3
0.83%
3:4
0.28%
3:5
0.07%
4
4:0
0.62%
⭐
4:1
0.82%
⭐
4:2
0.55%
⭐
4:3
0.24%
4:4
0.08%
4:5
0.02%
5
5:0
0.14%
⭐
5:1
0.19%
⭐
5:2
0.13%
⭐
5:3
0.06%
5:4
0.02%
5:5
0.01%
Hotspot:
1:1 (12.9%)
Total Boundaries:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
0.89
xG
1.26
45%
Ball Possession
55%
11
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Goal
4
8
Shots Off Goal
9
4
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
3
Last 6 Matches
Parma
VS
Fiorentina
2/6 (33%)
Victories
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Draws
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Defeats
4/6 (67%)
1.17
PPG
0.83
1.00
Avg Goals Scored
1.50
1.50
Avg Goals Conceded
1.67
50%
BTTS %
67%
0%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
17%
1.14
Avg xG
1.68
Missing Players
-
Injured - Leg Injury
-
Injured - Knee Injury
-
Injured - Groin Injury
-
Injured - Finger Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Injury
-
Injured - Ankle Injury
-
Injured - Thigh Injury
-
Injured - Knee Injury
-
Suspended - Yellow Cards
-
Injured - (questionable) Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Calf Injury
In this exciting Serie A 2025-2026 matchup, Parma will take on Fiorentina as part of the 2025-2026 season in Serie A. This match is part of Matchweek 17 and will take place on 2025-12-27 at 2025-12-27 in the famous Stadio Ennio Tardini.
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Parma, and the visiting side, Fiorentina. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : Parma or draw.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2025-12-27
Time: 11:30
Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Parma vs Fiorentina Saturday, Dec 27th, 2025 at 5:30 Football
Value Bets
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Trends for Parma vs Fiorentina Football 27 Dec, 2025 5:30
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 1 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
Physical Battle Expected
High card rate in recent matches — expect aggressive, physical encounter with 4+ cards
Comprehensive betting trends for Parma vs Fiorentina, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner — Parma @ 3.54 ✅ 
Parma
- UnbeatenH2H2/2100%Parma are unbeaten in their last 2 2 matches
Fiorentina
- DrawH2H2/2100%Fiorentina have drawn their last 2 2 matches
- Relegation BattleLeague90%Fiorentina are currently last in the table (last from bottom)
- Not WinRecent15/1694%Fiorentina have not won in 15 of their last 16 Serie A matches
Strong alignment between stats and historical dominance — Parma to win looks justified.
🎯 Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Under 2.5 @ 1.73 ✅ 
Parma(1 trends)
- Few GoalsRecent12/1580%Parma scored 0-1 goals in 12 of their last 15 Serie A matches
Fiorentina(1 trends)
- Few GoalsRecent13/1681%Fiorentina scored 0-1 goals in 13 of their last 16 Serie A matches
Head-to-Head(1 trends)
- Under 2.5 GoalsH2H2/2100%Under 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2 H2H matches (100.0%%)
Both teams score 0-1 goals frequently (80% + 81%) • Low scoring patterns strongly support Under 2.5
🛡️ Double Chance — Parma Win or Draw @ 1.67 ✅ 
Parma
- UnbeatenH2H2/2100%Parma are unbeaten in their last 2 2 matches
- Undefeated at HTH2H2/2100%Parma are undefeated at half time in their last 2 2 matches
Fiorentina
- Relegation BattleLeague90%Fiorentina are currently last in the table (last from bottom)
- Not WinRecent15/1694%Fiorentina have not won in 15 of their last 16 Serie A matches
Strong alignment between stats and historical dominance — Parma to win looks justified.
🟨 Cards Over/Under — Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.38 ✅
Parma(1 trends) — avg 2.1 (-5% below league)
- Many CardsH2H2/2100%Parma receive 2+ cards in 2 of their last 2 Serie A matches
Fiorentina(2 trends) — avg 2.4 (+9% above league)
- High Card MatchesLeague16/1690%Fiorentina average 2.4 cards/match in all matches (+17% above league avg 2.0) — rank #5 in league
- Many CardsRecent12/1675%Fiorentina receive 2+ cards in 12 of their last 16 Serie A matches
Head-to-Head(1 trends)
- High Card MatchesH2H%Average 5.0 cards per match in their last 2 H2H matches
Both teams show aggressive play - Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.38
🚩 Corners Over/Under — Under 9.5 Corners @ 1.67 ✅
Parma(3 trends) — avg 3.1 (-29% below league)
- Few CornersH2H2/2100%Parma win 4 or fewer corners in 2 of their last 2 Serie A matches
- Few CornersLeague8/885%Parma average 3.1 corners/match at home (-29% below league avg 4.4)
- Few CornersRecent11/1385%Parma win 4 or fewer corners in 11 of their last 13 Serie A matches
Low corner activity in recent matches - Under 9.5 Corners @ 1.67
+3 Streak trends are hidden
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Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
Parma vs Fiorentina
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the away team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 Parma
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.2
Pressure
0.07
✈️ Fiorentina
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.25
Pressure
0.11
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 Parma - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
2
Avg. Goals per Match
0.1
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
7
Avg. Goals per Match
0.35
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
7
Avg. Goals per Match
0.35
✈️ Fiorentina - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
4
Avg. Goals per Match
0.2
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
11
Avg. Goals per Match
0.55
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.3
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 Parma - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
2
Comeback Goals
6
Negative Sequences
0
Killer Goals
6
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
2
Late Pressure
7
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
2
Half-time Spurts
5
Second Half Starts
1
Late Surges
7
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
7
✈️ Fiorentina - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
3
Comeback Goals
9
Negative Sequences
2
Killer Goals
4
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
4
Late Pressure
6
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
4
Half-time Spurts
4
Second Half Starts
5
Late Surges
6
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
4
Late Conceded
2
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- Overall Result: Fiorentina has an advantage in the match
- Away Handicap: Consider Fiorentina handicap
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.054
Pressure (Advantage)
Away +0.04
Timing (Advantage)
Away +0.01 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Away +0.023 (away team better)
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (Parma):
Momentum: Strong - team reacts well to changes in the match. Pressure: Low - team rarely creates dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Fiorentina):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Teams are approximately equal in strength across all periods. Consider bets on draw, low total goals, or exact score.
Parma vs Fiorentina Head-to-head statistics for Sat 27 Dec, 2025 @ 5:30 Serie A
Parma vs Fiorentina: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams ℹ️
Home/Away: Shows home matches for Parma and away matches for Fiorentina
Number of goals
Parma
Under
Over
Fiorentina
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
30%
3
70%
7
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
70%
7
30%
3
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
Both teams to score
Parma
Fiorentina
Yes
40%
4
70%
7
No
60%
6
30%
3
1X2
Parma
Fiorentina
1
20%
2
20%
2
X
30%
3
20%
2
2
50%
5
60%
6
Double Chance
Parma
Fiorentina
12
70%
7
80%
8
1X
50%
5
40%
4
X2
80%
8
80%
8
Total Goals
Parma
Fiorentina
0-1
50%
5
20%
2
2-3
30%
3
50%
5
4+
20%
2
30%
3
Total Corners
Parma
Under
Over
Fiorentina
Under
Over
7.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
8.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
9.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
10.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Parma
Fiorentina
Yes
30%
3
0%
0
No
70%
7
100%
10
1X2 HT - FT
Parma
Fiorentina
HT 1 - FT 1
20%
2
20%
2
HT 1 - FT 2
0%
0
10%
1
HT 1 - FT X
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
20%
2
40%
4
HT 2 - FT X
10%
1
10%
1
HT X - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT X - FT 2
30%
3
10%
1
HT X - FT X
20%
2
10%
1
xG(xGa)
Parma
Fiorentina
xG
0.95
1.48
xGa
1.32
1.22
Number of goals
Parma
Under
Over
Fiorentina
Under
Over
0.5
60%
6
40%
4
50%
5
50%
5
1.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Parma
Fiorentina
Yes
20%
2
20%
2
No
80%
8
80%
8
1X2
Parma
Fiorentina
1
20%
2
30%
3
X
50%
5
20%
2
2
30%
3
50%
5
Double Chance
Parma
Fiorentina
12
50%
5
80%
8
1X
70%
7
50%
5
X2
80%
8
70%
7
Total Goals
Parma
Fiorentina
0-1
80%
8
70%
7
2-3
20%
2
30%
3
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Parma
Fiorentina
Yes
60%
6
40%
4
No
40%
4
60%
6
Number of goals
Parma
Under
Over
Fiorentina
Under
Over
0.5
70%
7
30%
3
50%
5
50%
5
1.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Parma
Fiorentina
Yes
20%
2
40%
4
No
80%
8
60%
6
1X2
Parma
Fiorentina
1
10%
1
20%
2
X
50%
5
40%
4
2
40%
4
40%
4
Double Chance
Parma
Fiorentina
12
50%
5
60%
6
1X
60%
6
60%
6
X2
90%
9
80%
8
Total Goals
Parma
Fiorentina
0-1
70%
7
50%
5
2-3
30%
3
50%
5
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Parma
Fiorentina
Yes
50%
5
20%
2
No
50%
5
80%
8
Team comparison
Prediction
Fiorentina Under 1.5 Goals
Goals Home:
-2.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions
Legend: High ConfidenceMedium ConfidenceLow Confidence
📊 Asian Handicap Details
- Total outcomes: 20
- Sum of probabilities: 999.99%
- Expected: ~300% (multiple independent pairs)
- ⚠️ High total - this is normal for Asian Handicap (multiple independent pairs)
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
Team Total Predictions
| Team | Outcome | Probability | Confidence | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Over 1.5 | 30.23% | Low | 3.30 |
| Under 1.5 | 69.77% | Medium | 1.41 | |
| Away | Over 1.5 | 35.68% | Low | 2.54 |
| Under 1.5 | 64.32% | Medium | 1.58 | |
| Home | Over 2.5 | 10.03% | Low | 10.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 89.97% | High | 1.07 | |
| Away | Over 2.5 | 13.24% | Low | 6.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 86.76% | High | 1.14 |
Team Total Details
- Thresholds: 1.5, 2.5 goals
- Markets: Total - Home, Total - Away
- Each team has Over/Under predictions for each threshold
Parma
Fiorentina
Played:
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
2
2
Wins
0
0
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
1
0.5
Goals
0.5
1
1
0.5
Goals Conceded
0.5
1
8
4
Yellow Cards
0.5
1
0
Red Cards
0.5
1
1
0.5
Clean Sheets
0.5
1
6
3
Corners
5.5
11
34
17
Fouls
9.5
19
2
1
Offsides
3.5
7
21
10.5
Shots
12
24
9
4.5
Shots on Goal
5
10
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 8 | 7 | 15 | |||
| Wins | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Draws | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||
| Losses | 4 | 3 | 7 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 0.8 | 6 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.7 | 10 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 1.2 | 18 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.5 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 1.7 | 26 |
| Red Cards | 0.3 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 3 |
| Clean Sheets | 0.1 | 1 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.3 | 4 |
| Corners | 3.1 | 25 | 2.7 | 19 | 2.9 | 44 |
| Fouls | 11 | 88 | 10.3 | 72 | 10.7 | 160 |
| Offsides | 1.8 | 14 | 0.7 | 5 | 1.3 | 19 |
| Shots | 11.5 | 92 | 10.1 | 71 | 10.9 | 163 |
| Shots on Goal | 2.8 | 22 | 3.4 | 24 | 3.1 | 46 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 8 | 8 | 16 | |||
| Wins | 1 | 0 | 1 | |||
| Draws | 2 | 4 | 6 | |||
| Losses | 5 | 4 | 9 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.5 | 12 | 0.6 | 5 | 1.1 | 17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.8 | 14 | 1.6 | 13 | 1.7 | 27 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.3 | 18 | 2.4 | 19 | 2.3 | 37 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.1 | 2 | |
| Corners | 4.9 | 39 | 4 | 32 | 4.4 | 71 |
| Fouls | 13 | 104 | 12.5 | 100 | 12.8 | 204 |
| Offsides | 1.6 | 13 | 2.1 | 17 | 1.9 | 30 |
| Shots | 15 | 120 | 9.8 | 78 | 12.4 | 198 |
| Shots on Goal | 3.8 | 30 | 2.1 | 17 | 2.9 | 47 |
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