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Nacional vs Tondela: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Monday, 15 December, 2025 11:30
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Upgrade to PremiumProbable Scores Heatmap
xG: 1.77 vs 1.52
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.06%
0:1
6.34%
0:2
3.32%
0:3
1.16%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.06%
1
1:0
7.84%
1:1
11.1%
🔥
1:2
7.32%
1:3
3.08%
⭐
1:4
0.95%
⭐
1:5
0.23%
⭐
2
2:0
5.07%
2:1
9.05%
2:2
7.38%
⭐
2:3
3.74%
⭐
2:4
1.35%
⭐
2:5
0.37%
⭐
3
3:0
2.19%
3:1
4.71%
3:2
4.62%
⭐
3:3
2.79%
⭐
3:4
1.18%
⭐
3:5
0.37%
⭐
4
4:0
0.71%
4:1
1.78%
⭐
4:2
2.06%
⭐
4:3
1.45%
⭐
4:4
0.71%
⭐
4:5
0.26%
5
5:0
0.18%
5:1
0.53%
⭐
5:2
0.7%
⭐
5:3
0.57%
⭐
5:4
0.32%
5:5
0.14%
Hotspot:
1:1 (11.1%)
Total Boundaries:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
Primeira Liga 2025-2026 – Group #1
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
13
3
5
5
22
21
1
14
14
3
3
7
12
18
-6
12
15
2
4
8
14
28
-14
10
16
2
3
8
7
22
-15
9
17
2
3
8
14
37
-23
9
1.75
xG
1.67
51%
Ball Possession
49%
13
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
4
8
Shots Off Goal
8
6
Corners
5
2
Yellow Cards
4
Last 6 Matches
Nacional
VS
Tondela
1/6 (17%)
Victories
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Draws
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Defeats
4/6 (67%)
0.83
PPG
0.67
1.00
Avg Goals Scored
0.50
1.33
Avg Goals Conceded
1.83
67%
BTTS %
17%
17%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
0%
1.17
Avg xG
0.87
In this exciting Primeira Liga 2025-2026 - Regular Season matchup, Nacional will take on Tondela as part of the 2025-2026 season in Primeira Liga. This match is part of Matchweek 14 and will take place on 2025-12-15 at 2025-12-15 in the famous .
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Nacional, and the visiting side, Tondela. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : draw or Tondela.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2025-12-15
Time: 17:30
Location:
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Nacional vs Tondela Monday, Dec 15th, 2025 at 11:30 Football
Value Bets
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Trends for Nacional vs Tondela Football 15 Dec, 2025 11:30
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 3 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
BTTS Magnet
Both teams score in 67% of recent matches — strong BTTS pattern
-
Toothless Attack
Tondela struggle to score — failed to find net in 5/7 recent away matches
+1 more advanced pattern is hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 3 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for Nacional vs Tondela, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner — Nacional @ 2.43 ⚠️ 
Tondela
- Relegation BattleLeague90%Tondela are currently 16th in the table (3rd from bottom)
- Not WinRecent11/1385%Tondela have not won in 11 of their last 13 Primeira Liga matches
Nacional confirm their superiority through current form statistics.
⚽ Both Teams To Score — No @ 1.99 ⚠️ 
Nacional(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague4/667%Nacional score (1.00/match) and concede (2.17/match) regularly at home - BTTS in 67% of matches (league avg: 45%)
Tondela(1 trends)
- Weak AttackLeague5/771%Tondela struggle to score in away matches (0.71/match) - fail to score in 71% of matches
🎯 Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Under 2.5 @ 1.76 ⚠️
Nacional(1 trends)
- Over 2.5 GoalsRecent12/1580%Over 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 15 Primeira Liga (Home) matches
Tondela(1 trends)
- Few GoalsRecent10/1377%Tondela scored 0-1 goals in 10 of their last 13 Primeira Liga matches
Tactical battle expected with limited scoring
🛡️ Double Chance — Nacional Win or Draw @ 1.38 ⚠️
Tondela
- Relegation BattleLeague90%Tondela are currently 16th in the table (3rd from bottom)
- Not WinRecent11/1385%Tondela have not won in 11 of their last 13 Primeira Liga matches
Nacional confirm their superiority through current form statistics.
⚡ Team Total Goals — Nacional Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.50 ⚠️ 
Tondela
- Weak AttackLeague5/771%Tondela struggle to score in away matches (0.71/match) - fail to score in 71% of matches
Despite Tondela's form, Tondela's defensive vulnerabilities suggest goals.
🟨 Cards Over/Under
Tondela(2 trends)
- Many CardsRecent6/786%Tondela receive 2+ cards in 6 of their last 7 Primeira Liga (Away) matches
- Many CardsRecent10/1377%Tondela receive 2+ cards in 10 of their last 13 Primeira Liga matches
Nacional disciplined play balances Tondela aggression —
🚩 Corners Over/Under — Under 9.5 Corners @ 2.00 ⚠️ 
Tondela(2 trends) — avg 3.9 (-15% below league)
- Few CornersLeague7/780%Tondela average 3.9 corners/match in away matches (-15% below league avg 4.6)
- Few CornersRecent11/1385%Tondela win 4 or fewer corners in 11 of their last 13 Primeira Liga matches
Low corner activity in recent matches - Under 9.5 Corners @ 2.00
+6 Streak trends are hidden
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Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
Nacional vs Tondela
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
🚀 Match Start: Nacional is stronger in the first 15 minutes (3 vs 0).
🔄 Second Half: Nacional is stronger in the second half (9 vs 4).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the home team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
🔄 Second Half: Nacional is stronger in the second half (9 vs 4).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the home team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 Nacional
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.01
Pressure
0.07
✈️ Tondela
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
13
Momentum
0.03
Pressure
0.05
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 Nacional - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
3
Avg. Goals per Match
0.15
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
4
Avg. Goals per Match
0.2
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
9
Avg. Goals per Match
0.45
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25
✈️ Tondela - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
0
Avg. Goals per Match
0
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.46
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
4
Avg. Goals per Match
0.31
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
4
Avg. Goals per Match
0.31
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 Nacional - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
1
Comeback Goals
8
Negative Sequences
5
Killer Goals
5
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
3
Late Pressure
5
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
3
Half-time Spurts
1
Second Half Starts
4
Late Surges
5
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
4
Late Conceded
10
✈️ Tondela - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
1
Comeback Goals
3
Negative Sequences
2
Killer Goals
2
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
0
Late Pressure
4
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
0
Half-time Spurts
6
Second Half Starts
0
Late Surges
4
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
1
Late Conceded
3
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- 🚀 Home Fast Start: Nacional often scores in the first 15 minutes (3 vs 0)
- First Goal Home: High probability of Nacional scoring first
- 🔄 Second Half Dominance: Nacional shows superior performance after the break (9 vs 4 goals)
- Second Half Winner: High probability of Nacional winning the second half
- Overall Result: Nacional has an advantage in the match
- Home Handicap: Consider Nacional handicap
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.022
Pressure (Advantage)
Home +0.021
Timing (Advantage)
Away +0.006 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Away +0.077 (away team better)
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (Nacional):
Momentum: Weak - team may lose concentration. Pressure: Low - team rarely creates dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Tondela):
Momentum: Weak - team may lose concentration. Pressure: Low - team rarely creates dangerous moments. Defense: Reliable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Teams are approximately equal in strength across all periods. Consider bets on draw, low total goals, or exact score.
Nacional vs Tondela Head-to-head statistics for Mon 15 Dec, 2025 @ 11:30 Primeira Liga
Nacional vs Tondela: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Home/Away: Shows home matches for Nacional and away matches for Tondela
Number of goals
Number of goals
Nacional
Under
Over
Tondela
Under
Over
0.5
30%
3
70%
7
60%
6
40%
4
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
70%
7
30%
3
2.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Nacional
Tondela
Yes
50%
5
30%
3
No
50%
5
70%
7
1X2
1X2
Nacional
Tondela
1
30%
3
20%
2
X
20%
2
30%
3
2
50%
5
50%
5
Double Chance
Double Chance
Nacional
Tondela
12
80%
8
70%
7
1X
50%
5
50%
5
X2
70%
7
80%
8
Total Goals
Total Goals
Nacional
Tondela
0-1
40%
4
40%
4
2-3
50%
5
40%
4
4+
10%
1
20%
2
Total Corners
Total Corners
Nacional
Under
Over
Tondela
Under
Over
7.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
8.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
9.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
10.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Nacional
Tondela
Yes
20%
2
20%
2
No
80%
8
80%
8
1X2 HT - FT
1X2 HT - FT
Nacional
Tondela
HT 1 - FT 1
20%
2
10%
1
HT 1 - FT 2
0%
0
0%
0
HT 1 - FT X
20%
2
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
20%
2
30%
3
HT 2 - FT X
0%
0
10%
1
HT X - FT 1
10%
1
10%
1
HT X - FT 2
30%
3
20%
2
HT X - FT X
0%
0
20%
2
xG(xGa)
xG(xGa)
Nacional
Tondela
xG
1.16
1.22
xGa
1.59
1.6
Number of goals
Number of goals
Nacional
Under
Over
Tondela
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
80%
8
20%
2
1.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Nacional
Tondela
Yes
10%
1
10%
1
No
90%
9
90%
9
1X2
1X2
Nacional
Tondela
1
40%
4
10%
1
X
40%
4
50%
5
2
20%
2
40%
4
Double Chance
Double Chance
Nacional
Tondela
12
60%
6
50%
5
1X
80%
8
60%
6
X2
60%
6
90%
9
Total Goals
Total Goals
Nacional
Tondela
0-1
80%
8
80%
8
2-3
20%
2
20%
2
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Nacional
Tondela
Yes
70%
7
50%
5
No
30%
3
50%
5
Number of goals
Number of goals
Nacional
Under
Over
Tondela
Under
Over
0.5
70%
7
30%
3
70%
7
30%
3
1.5
90%
9
10%
1
80%
8
20%
2
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Nacional
Tondela
Yes
30%
3
30%
3
No
70%
7
70%
7
1X2
1X2
Nacional
Tondela
1
10%
1
20%
2
X
40%
4
40%
4
2
50%
5
40%
4
Double Chance
Double Chance
Nacional
Tondela
12
60%
6
60%
6
1X
50%
5
60%
6
X2
90%
9
80%
8
Total Goals
Total Goals
Nacional
Tondela
0-1
70%
7
50%
5
2-3
30%
3
50%
5
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Nacional
Tondela
Yes
40%
4
30%
3
No
60%
6
70%
7
Team comparison
Prediction
Both Teams to Score
Goals Home:
-2.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions
Legend: High ConfidenceMedium ConfidenceLow Confidence
📊 Asian Handicap Details
- Total outcomes: 20
- Sum of probabilities: 999.84%
- Expected: ~300% (multiple independent pairs)
- ⚠️ High total - this is normal for Asian Handicap (multiple independent pairs)
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
Team Total Predictions
| Team | Outcome | Probability | Confidence | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Over 1.5 | 54.26% | Medium | 2.50 |
| Under 1.5 | 45.74% | Low | 1.57 | |
| Away | Over 1.5 | 46.78% | Low | 3.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 53.22% | Medium | 1.40 | |
| Home | Over 2.5 | 27.43% | Low | 6.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 72.57% | High | 1.15 | |
| Away | Over 2.5 | 21.08% | Low | 8.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 78.92% | High | 1.08 |
Team Total Details
- Thresholds: 1.5, 2.5 goals
- Markets: Total - Home, Total - Away
- Each team has Over/Under predictions for each threshold
Nacional
Tondela
Played:
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Wins
0
0
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 6 | 7 | 13 | |||
| Wins | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Draws | 0 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Losses | 5 | 2 | 7 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1 | 6 | 0.9 | 6 | 0.9 | 12 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.2 | 13 | 0.7 | 5 | 1.4 | 18 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.3 | 14 | 2.9 | 20 | 2.6 | 34 |
| Red Cards | 0.5 | 3 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.3 | 4 |
| Clean Sheets | 0 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.2 | 2 | |
| Corners | 4.3 | 26 | 4.3 | 30 | 4.3 | 56 |
| Fouls | 14 | 84 | 15 | 105 | 14.5 | 189 |
| Offsides | 2.5 | 15 | 1.4 | 10 | 1.9 | 25 |
| Shots | 10.2 | 61 | 11.9 | 83 | 11.1 | 144 |
| Shots on Goal | 3.8 | 23 | 3.6 | 25 | 3.7 | 48 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 6 | 7 | 13 | |||
| Wins | 0 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Draws | 2 | 1 | 3 | |||
| Losses | 4 | 4 | 8 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 0.3 | 2 | 0.7 | 5 | 0.5 | 7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 9 | 1.9 | 13 | 1.7 | 22 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.2 | 13 | 3 | 21 | 2.6 | 34 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0.2 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 2 |
| Corners | 2.7 | 16 | 3.9 | 27 | 3.3 | 43 |
| Fouls | 12.5 | 75 | 15.4 | 108 | 14.1 | 183 |
| Offsides | 3.2 | 19 | 2.3 | 16 | 2.7 | 35 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 77 | 9.3 | 65 | 10.9 | 142 |
| Shots on Goal | 3.8 | 23 | 3.4 | 24 | 3.6 | 47 |
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