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Lille
Lille vs Marseille: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Friday, 5 December, 2025 14:00
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Upgrade to PremiumProbable Scores Heatmap
xG: 1.55 vs 1.25
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.8%
0:1
7.76%
⭐
0:2
4.42%
0:3
1.68%
0:4
0.48%
0:5
0.11%
1
1:0
9.82%
⭐
1:1
11.95%
🔥
1:2
7.25%
1:3
2.92%
1:4
0.88%
1:5
0.21%
2
2:0
7.09%
2:1
9.17%
2:2
5.9%
2:3
2.51%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.41%
3:1
4.68%
3:2
3.18%
3:3
1.43%
3:4
0.48%
3:5
0.13%
4
4:0
1.23%
4:1
1.78%
4:2
1.28%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.21%
4:5
0.06%
5
5:0
0.36%
5:1
0.54%
5:2
0.41%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.07%
5:5
0.02%
Hotspot:
1:1 (12.0%)
Total Boundaries:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
Ligue 1 2025-2026 – Group #1
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
2
▼
9
3
2
27
12
15
30
3
▼
9
2
3
35
14
21
29
4
8
2
4
28
17
11
26
5
▲
6
6
2
24
18
6
24
Last 6 Matches
Lille
VS
Marseille
4/6 (67%)
Victories
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Draws
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Defeats
1/6 (17%)
2.00
PPG
1.83
1.67
Avg Goals Scored
2.17
0.83
Avg Goals Conceded
0.83
17%
BTTS %
50%
33%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
33%
1.92
Avg xG
1.87
Missing Players
-
Injured - Thigh Injury
-
Suspended - Red Card
-
Injured - Illness
-
Injured - Elbow Injury
-
Injured - Knee Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Muscle Injury
-
Injured - Inactive
-
Injured - Shoulder Injury
-
Injured - Ankle Injury
-
Injured - Tendon Injury
-
Injured - Thigh Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Illness
1.59
xG [Total: 2.82]
1.23
2
Yellow Cards [Total: 4]
2
6
Corners [Total: 12]
6
1
Offsides [Total: 3]
1
11
Fouls [Total: 23]
12
5
Shots on Goal [Total: 10]
5
In this exciting Ligue 1 2025-2026 - Regular Season matchup, Lille will take on Marseille as part of the 2025-2026 season in Ligue 1. This match is part of Matchweek 15 and will take place on 2025-12-05 at 2025-12-05 in the famous .
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Lille, and the visiting side, Marseille. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : Lille or draw.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2025-12-05
Time: 20:00
Location:
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Lille vs Marseille Friday, Dec 5th, 2025 at 14:00 Football
No value bets found for this match.
(Minimum EV: 1%)
Trends for Lille vs Marseille Football 5 Dec, 2025 14:00
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 6 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
Defensive Stalemate
Both teams boast solid defenses — low-scoring tactical battle expected with few goals
-
Goal Fest Potential
Both teams in high-scoring form — Over 2.5 goals likely with offensive firepower on display
+4 more advanced patterns are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 6 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for Lille vs Marseille, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner — Lille @ 2.40 ✅ 
Lille
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%Lille score 2.14 goals/match at home (+47% above league average)
- League Top ScorerLeague7/770%Lille rank 2 of 18 in scoring at home (2.14 goals/match vs league avg 2.90)
- League Best DefenseLeague7/770%Lille concede only 0.86 goals/match at home (excellent defense)
- High xG PerformanceRecent15/15100%Lille create many chances (xG 1.5+) in 15 of their last 15 Ligue 1 (Home) matches
- Good Goal RatioRecent15/15100%Lille have good goal ratio (1.5+) in 15 of their last 15 Ligue 1 (Home) matches
Strong alignment between defensive solidity and scoring consistency — Lille to win looks justified.
⚽ Both Teams To Score — No @ 2.41 
Lille(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague4/757%Lille score (2.14/match) and concede (0.86/match) regularly at home - BTTS in 57% of matches (league avg: 51%)
Marseille(1 trends)
- Strong DefenseLeague4/757%Marseille score well (1.71/match) but have strong defense in away matches (0.86 conceded) - opponents fail to score in 57% of matches
🎯 Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Under 2.5 @ 2.18 ✅ 
Lille(3 trends)
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%Lille score 2.14 goals/match at home (+47% above league average)
- League Top ScorerLeague7/770%Lille rank 2 of 18 in scoring at home (2.14 goals/match vs league avg 2.90)
- Good Goal RatioRecent15/15100%Lille have good goal ratio (1.5+) in 15 of their last 15 Ligue 1 (Home) matches
Marseille(2 trends)
- Few GoalsH2H7/888%Marseille scored 0-1 goals in 7 of their last 8 Ligue 1 matches vs Lille
- League Top ScorerLeague7/775%Marseille rank 1 of 18 in scoring in away matches (1.71 goals/match vs league avg 2.90)
Combined 2.1 goals per match average • Defensive strength dominates - Under 2.5 likely
🛡️ Double Chance — Marseille Win or Draw @ 1.68 ✅
Marseille
- Undefeated at HTH2H6/875%Marseille are undefeated at half time in their last 6 8 matches vs Lille
- League Best DefenseLeague7/770%Marseille concede only 0.86 goals/match in away matches (excellent defense)
- Top Table FormLeague65%Marseille are currently 3rd in the table (Top 3)
- Undefeated at HTRecent23/3077%Marseille are undefeated at half time in 23 of their last 30 Ligue 1 matches
Marseille demonstrate superior form across all key metrics.
⚡ Team Total Goals — Lille Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.08 ✅
Lille
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%Lille score 2.14 goals/match at home (+47% above league average)
- League Top ScorerLeague7/770%Lille rank 2 of 18 in scoring at home (2.14 goals/match vs league avg 2.90)
Lille's consistent scoring makes Over 1.5 a statistically sound pick.
🟨 Cards Over/Under — Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.44 ✅
Lille(2 trends)
- Many CardsH2H6/875%Lille receive 2+ cards in 6 of their last 8 Ligue 1 matches vs Marseille
- High Card MatchesLeague14/1489%Lille average 2.4 cards/match in all matches (+16% above league avg 2.0) — rank #3 in league
Marseille(2 trends)
- Many CardsH2H7/888%Marseille receive 2+ cards in 7 of their last 8 Ligue 1 matches vs Lille
- High Card MatchesLeague14/1489%Marseille average 2.4 cards/match in all matches (+16% above league avg 2.0) — rank #5 in league
Both teams show aggressive play - Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.44 • H2H average: 5.4 total cards/match
🚩 Corners Over/Under — Over 9.5 Corners @ 2.18 ✅
Lille(2 trends) — avg 6.4 (+37% above league)
- Few CornersH2H6/875%Lille win 4 or fewer corners in 6 of their last 8 Ligue 1 matches vs Marseille
- Many CornersLeague7/785%Lille average 6.4 corners/match at home (+37% above league avg 4.7)
Marseille(1 trends) — avg 5.9 (+25% above league)
- Many CornersLeague7/785%Marseille average 5.9 corners/match in away matches (+25% above league avg 4.7)
Combined average: 12.3 corners/match (Lille 6.4 + Marseille 5.9) • Lille dominance pushes total over threshold
+13 Streak trends are hidden
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Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
Lille vs Marseille
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
🚀 Match Start: Marseille is stronger in the first 15 minutes (4 vs 0).
⚡ Final Stage: Lille is stronger in the final minutes (15 vs 12).
💡 Recommendation: Teams are equal in strength. Consider bets on draw or exact score.
⚡ Final Stage: Lille is stronger in the final minutes (15 vs 12).
💡 Recommendation: Teams are equal in strength. Consider bets on draw or exact score.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 Lille
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.25
Pressure
0.15
✈️ Marseille
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.4
Pressure
0.17
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 Lille - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
0
Avg. Goals per Match
0
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
20
Avg. Goals per Match
1
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
15
Avg. Goals per Match
0.75
✈️ Marseille - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
4
Avg. Goals per Match
0.2
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
9
Avg. Goals per Match
0.45
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
18
Avg. Goals per Match
0.9
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 Lille - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
7
Comeback Goals
10
Negative Sequences
6
Killer Goals
4
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
0
Late Pressure
15
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
0
Half-time Spurts
8
Second Half Starts
5
Late Surges
15
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
5
Late Conceded
9
✈️ Marseille - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
12
Comeback Goals
9
Negative Sequences
2
Killer Goals
7
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
4
Late Pressure
12
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
4
Half-time Spurts
5
Second Half Starts
6
Late Surges
12
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
5
Late Conceded
8
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- 🚀 Away Fast Start: Marseille often scores in the first 15 minutes (4 vs 0)
- First Goal Away: High probability of Marseille scoring first
- ⚡ Final Stage Mastery: Lille excels in the closing minutes (15 vs 12 late goals)
- Last Goal Scorer: High probability of Lille scoring the final goal
- Late Goals Market: Consider bets on goals after 75th minute
- Overall Result: Teams are equal in strength
- Draw: Consider draw bets
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.154
Pressure (Advantage)
Away +0.022
Timing (Advantage)
Home +0.002 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Away +0.008 (away team better)
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (Lille):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: High - team creates many dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Marseille):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: High - team creates many dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Teams are approximately equal in strength across all periods. Consider bets on draw, low total goals, or exact score.
Lille vs Marseille Head-to-head statistics for Fri 5 Dec, 2025 @ 14:00 Ligue 1
Lille vs Marseille: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Home/Away: Shows home matches for Lille and away matches for Marseille
Number of goals
Number of goals
Lille
Under
Over
Marseille
Under
Over
0.5
30%
3
70%
7
10%
1
90%
9
1.5
50%
5
50%
5
40%
4
60%
6
2.5
60%
6
40%
4
70%
7
30%
3
3.5
70%
7
30%
3
80%
8
20%
2
4.5
90%
9
10%
1
80%
8
20%
2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Lille
Marseille
Yes
30%
3
70%
7
No
70%
7
30%
3
1X2
1X2
Lille
Marseille
1
60%
6
50%
5
X
0%
0
20%
2
2
40%
4
30%
3
Double Chance
Double Chance
Lille
Marseille
12
100%
10
80%
8
1X
60%
6
70%
7
X2
40%
4
50%
5
Total Goals
Total Goals
Lille
Marseille
0-1
30%
3
20%
2
2-3
30%
3
40%
4
4+
40%
4
40%
4
Total Corners
Total Corners
Lille
Under
Over
Marseille
Under
Over
7.5
50%
5
50%
5
70%
7
30%
3
8.5
60%
6
40%
4
80%
8
20%
2
9.5
80%
8
20%
2
90%
9
10%
1
10.5
80%
8
20%
2
90%
9
10%
1
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Lille
Marseille
Yes
40%
4
20%
2
No
60%
6
80%
8
1X2 HT - FT
1X2 HT - FT
Lille
Marseille
HT 1 - FT 1
40%
4
30%
3
HT 1 - FT 2
0%
0
10%
1
HT 1 - FT X
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
10%
1
HT 2 - FT 2
30%
3
0%
0
HT 2 - FT X
0%
0
20%
2
HT X - FT 1
20%
2
10%
1
HT X - FT 2
10%
1
20%
2
HT X - FT X
0%
0
0%
0
xG(xGa)
xG(xGa)
Lille
Marseille
xG
1.91
1.71
xGa
1.12
0.98
Number of goals
Number of goals
Lille
Under
Over
Marseille
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
40%
4
60%
6
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
80%
8
20%
2
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Lille
Marseille
Yes
10%
1
20%
2
No
90%
9
80%
8
1X2
1X2
Lille
Marseille
1
40%
4
40%
4
X
30%
3
30%
3
2
30%
3
30%
3
Double Chance
Double Chance
Lille
Marseille
12
70%
7
70%
7
1X
70%
7
70%
7
X2
60%
6
60%
6
Total Goals
Total Goals
Lille
Marseille
0-1
60%
6
60%
6
2-3
40%
4
40%
4
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Lille
Marseille
Yes
60%
6
50%
5
No
40%
4
50%
5
Number of goals
Number of goals
Lille
Under
Over
Marseille
Under
Over
0.5
40%
4
60%
6
40%
4
60%
6
1.5
60%
6
40%
4
50%
5
50%
5
2.5
70%
7
30%
3
80%
8
20%
2
3.5
90%
9
10%
1
90%
9
10%
1
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Lille
Marseille
Yes
30%
3
40%
4
No
70%
7
60%
6
1X2
1X2
Lille
Marseille
1
60%
6
60%
6
X
10%
1
10%
1
2
30%
3
30%
3
Double Chance
Double Chance
Lille
Marseille
12
90%
9
90%
9
1X
70%
7
70%
7
X2
40%
4
40%
4
Total Goals
Total Goals
Lille
Marseille
0-1
60%
6
40%
4
2-3
10%
1
40%
4
4+
30%
3
20%
2
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Lille
Marseille
Yes
40%
4
30%
3
No
60%
6
70%
7
Team comparison
Prediction
Lille or Draw
Goals Home:
-2.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions
Legend: High ConfidenceMedium ConfidenceLow Confidence
📊 Asian Handicap Details
- Total outcomes: 20
- Sum of probabilities: 999.95%
- Expected: ~300% (multiple independent pairs)
- ⚠️ High total - this is normal for Asian Handicap (multiple independent pairs)
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
Team Total Predictions
| Team | Outcome | Probability | Confidence | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Over 1.5 | 46.04% | Low | 2.08 |
| Under 1.5 | 53.96% | Medium | 1.79 | |
| Away | Over 1.5 | 35.59% | Low | 2.52 |
| Under 1.5 | 64.41% | Medium | 1.57 | |
| Home | Over 2.5 | 20.51% | Low | 4.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 79.49% | High | 1.22 | |
| Away | Over 2.5 | 13.19% | Low | 6.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 86.81% | High | 1.14 |
Team Total Details
- Thresholds: 1.5, 2.5 goals
- Markets: Total - Home, Total - Away
- Each team has Over/Under predictions for each threshold
Lille
Marseille
Played:
8
Wins
3
3
Draws
4
4
Wins
1
1
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
11
1.4
Goals
0.9
7
7
0.9
Goals Conceded
1.4
11
19
2.4
Yellow Cards
2.6
21
1
0.1
Red Cards
0.3
2
2
0.3
Clean Sheets
0.1
1
33
4.1
Corners
5
40
96
12
Fouls
14.4
115
20
2.5
Offsides
2.1
17
75
9.4
Shots
12
96
28
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.3
34
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 7 | 7 | 14 | |||
| Wins | 5 | 3 | 8 | |||
| Draws | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Losses | 1 | 3 | 4 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 2.1 | 15 | 1.9 | 13 | 2 | 28 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 6 | 1.6 | 11 | 1.2 | 17 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.9 | 13 | 2.6 | 18 | 2.2 | 31 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.1 | 2 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0.3 | 2 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.3 | 4 |
| Corners | 6.4 | 45 | 6.7 | 47 | 6.6 | 92 |
| Fouls | 12.1 | 85 | 13.7 | 96 | 12.9 | 181 |
| Offsides | 1.1 | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 1.4 | 19 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 110 | 14.6 | 102 | 15.1 | 212 |
| Shots on Goal | 5.1 | 36 | 5 | 35 | 5.1 | 71 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 7 | 7 | 14 | |||
| Wins | 5 | 4 | 9 | |||
| Draws | 2 | 0 | 2 | |||
| Losses | 0 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 3.3 | 23 | 1.7 | 12 | 2.5 | 35 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 8 | 0.9 | 6 | 1 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.9 | 13 | 2.4 | 17 | 2.1 | 30 |
| Red Cards | 0.1 | 1 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.2 | 3 |
| Clean Sheets | 0.4 | 3 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.4 | 5 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 38 | 5.9 | 41 | 5.6 | 79 |
| Fouls | 12.7 | 89 | 10.7 | 75 | 11.7 | 164 |
| Offsides | 1.3 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1.1 | 16 |
| Shots | 14.1 | 99 | 14 | 98 | 14.1 | 197 |
| Shots on Goal | 6.1 | 43 | 5.3 | 37 | 5.7 | 80 |
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