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Leicester vs Derby: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Monday, 29 December, 2025 14:45
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Probable Scores Heatmap
xG: 1.24 vs 1.33
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.61%
0:1
10.45%
0:2
6.35%
⭐
0:3
2.57%
⭐
0:4
0.78%
0:5
0.19%
1
1:0
9.7%
1:1
12.77%
🔥
1:2
8.36%
⭐
1:3
3.63%
⭐
1:4
1.18%
⭐
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
5.46%
2:1
7.76%
2:2
5.45%
2:3
2.53%
⭐
2:4
0.87%
2:5
0.24%
3
3:0
2.05%
3:1
3.12%
3:2
2.35%
3:3
1.16%
3:4
0.43%
3:5
0.12%
4
4:0
0.58%
4:1
0.94%
4:2
0.75%
4:3
0.39%
4:4
0.15%
4:5
0.05%
5
5:0
0.13%
5:1
0.23%
5:2
0.19%
5:3
0.11%
5:4
0.04%
5:5
0.01%
Hotspot:
1:1 (12.8%)
Total Boundaries:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
Championship 2025-2026 – Group #1
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
11
▼
8
7
7
36
31
5
31
12
8
7
7
31
30
1
31
13
▼
8
7
7
31
31
0
31
14
▼
8
5
9
30
29
1
29
0.94
xG
1.36
58%
Ball Possession
43%
13
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Goal
3
9
Shots Off Goal
6
6
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
3
Last 6 Matches
Leicester
VS
Derby
2/6 (33%)
Victories
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Draws
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Defeats
2/6 (33%)
1.17
PPG
1.33
1.83
Avg Goals Scored
1.50
2.33
Avg Goals Conceded
1.33
83%
BTTS %
83%
33%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
17%
1.07
Avg xG
1.09
Missing Players
-
Injured - Torn knee ligaments
In this exciting Championship 2025-2026 - Regular Season matchup, Leicester will take on Derby as part of the 2025-2026 season in Championship. This match is part of Matchweek 24 and will take place on 2025-12-29 at 2025-12-29 in the famous King Power Stadium.
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Leicester, and the visiting side, Derby. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : Leicester or draw.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2025-12-29
Time: 19:45
Location: King Power Stadium
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Leicester vs Derby Monday, Dec 29th, 2025 at 14:45 Football
Value Bets
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Upgrade to PremiumTrends for Leicester vs Derby Football 29 Dec, 2025 14:45
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 5 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
BTTS Magnet
Both teams score in 70% of recent matches — strong BTTS pattern
-
Clinical Finishers
Both teams convert chances efficiently (80%+ conversion) — expect goals from limited opportunities
+3 more advanced patterns are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 5 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for Leicester vs Derby, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner — Derby @ 3.90 ✅ 
Derby
- Above League AverageLeague10/1070.5%Derby score 1.60 goals/match in away matches (+21% above league average)
- Efficient ScoringRecent20/2291%Derby efficiently convert chances (high accuracy) in 20 of their last 22 Championship matches
Derby demonstrate superior form across all key metrics.
⚽ Both Teams To Score — Yes @ 1.95 ⚠️ 
Leicester(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague7/1070%Leicester score (1.40/match) and concede (1.10/match) regularly at home - BTTS in 70% of matches (league avg: 60%)
Derby(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague7/1070%Derby score (1.60/match) and concede (1.20/match) regularly in away matches - BTTS in 70% of matches (league avg: 60%)
🎯 Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Under 2.5 @ 1.65 ⚠️
Derby(1 trends)
- Above League AverageLeague10/1070.5%Derby score 1.60 goals/match in away matches (+21% above league average)
Combined 1.6 goals per match average • Low scoring average but offensive form suggests potential for goals
⚡ Team Total Goals — Derby Over 1.5 Goals @ 3.64 ⚠️ 
Derby
- Above League AverageLeague10/1070.5%Derby score 1.60 goals/match in away matches (+21% above league average)
Derby's consistent scoring makes Over 1.5 a statistically sound pick.
🟨 Cards Over/Under
Derby(1 trends) — avg 2.3 (+17% above league)
- High Card MatchesLeague22/2290%Derby average 2.3 cards/match in all matches (+26% above league avg 1.8) — rank #1 in league
Leicester disciplined play balances Derby aggression —
🚩 Corners Over/Under — Over 9.5 Corners @ 1.70 ⚠️
Leicester(1 trends) — avg 6.6 (+32% above league)
- Many CornersLeague10/1085%Leicester average 6.6 corners/match at home (+32% above league avg 5.0)
Derby(1 trends) — avg 4.4 (-11% below league)
- Few CornersLeague10/1076%Derby average 4.4 corners/match in away matches (-11% below league avg 5.0)
Combined average: 11.0 corners/match (Leicester 6.6 + Derby 4.4) • Leicester dominance pushes total over threshold
+11 Streak trends are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all advanced streak trends and patterns
Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
Leicester vs Derby
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
🚀 Match Start: Leicester is stronger in the first 15 minutes (6 vs 1).
⏰ First Half: Leicester is stronger in the first half (16 vs 5).
🔄 Second Half: Derby is stronger in the second half (10 vs 6).
⚡ Final Stage: Derby is stronger in the final minutes (7 vs 3).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the away team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⏰ First Half: Leicester is stronger in the first half (16 vs 5).
🔄 Second Half: Derby is stronger in the second half (10 vs 6).
⚡ Final Stage: Derby is stronger in the final minutes (7 vs 3).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the away team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 Leicester
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.05
Pressure
0.11
✈️ Derby
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.19
Pressure
0.06
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 Leicester - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.3
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
16
Avg. Goals per Match
0.8
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.3
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
3
Avg. Goals per Match
0.15
✈️ Derby - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
1
Avg. Goals per Match
0.05
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
10
Avg. Goals per Match
0.5
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
7
Avg. Goals per Match
0.35
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 Leicester - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
3
Comeback Goals
6
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
11
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
6
Late Pressure
3
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
6
Half-time Spurts
10
Second Half Starts
3
Late Surges
3
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
6
Late Conceded
7
✈️ Derby - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
1
Comeback Goals
11
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
5
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
1
Late Pressure
7
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
1
Half-time Spurts
4
Second Half Starts
3
Late Surges
7
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
5
Late Conceded
4
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- 🚀 Home Fast Start: Leicester often scores in the first 15 minutes (6 vs 1)
- First Goal Home: High probability of Leicester scoring first
- ⏰ Home First Half: Leicester is stronger in the first half (16 vs 5)
- First Half Result: Consider Leicester to win the first half
- 🔄 Second Half Dominance: Derby shows superior performance after the break (10 vs 6 goals)
- Second Half Winner: High probability of Derby winning the second half
- ⚡ Final Stage Mastery: Derby excels in the closing minutes (7 vs 3 late goals)
- Last Goal Scorer: High probability of Derby scoring the final goal
- Late Goals Market: Consider bets on goals after 75th minute
- Overall Result: Derby has an advantage in the match
- Away Handicap: Consider Derby handicap
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.132
Pressure (Advantage)
Home +0.046
Timing (Advantage)
Home +0.018 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Away +0.038 (away team better)
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (Leicester):
Momentum: Moderate - team shows stable play. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Derby):
Momentum: Strong - team reacts well to changes in the match. Pressure: Low - team rarely creates dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Away team is stronger in the final minutes of the match. Consider bets on late goals, last goal scorer, and away team victory.
Leicester vs Derby Head-to-head statistics for Mon 29 Dec, 2025 @ 14:45 Championship
Leicester vs Derby: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams ℹ️
Home/Away: Shows home matches for Leicester and away matches for Derby
Number of goals
Leicester
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
0.5
20%
2
80%
8
0%
0
100%
10
1.5
40%
4
60%
6
40%
4
60%
6
2.5
80%
8
20%
2
80%
8
20%
2
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Leicester
Derby
Yes
80%
8
90%
9
No
20%
2
10%
1
1X2
Leicester
Derby
1
40%
4
50%
5
X
20%
2
20%
2
2
40%
4
30%
3
Double Chance
Leicester
Derby
12
80%
8
80%
8
1X
60%
6
70%
7
X2
60%
6
50%
5
Total Goals
Leicester
Derby
0-1
0%
0
0%
0
2-3
50%
5
70%
7
4+
50%
5
30%
3
Total Corners
Leicester
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
7.5
100%
10
0%
0
70%
7
30%
3
8.5
100%
10
0%
0
80%
8
20%
2
9.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
10.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Leicester
Derby
Yes
0%
0
10%
1
No
100%
10
90%
9
1X2 HT - FT
Leicester
Derby
HT 1 - FT 1
30%
3
50%
5
HT 1 - FT 2
0%
0
20%
2
HT 1 - FT X
20%
2
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
40%
4
10%
1
HT 2 - FT X
0%
0
0%
0
HT X - FT 1
10%
1
0%
0
HT X - FT 2
0%
0
0%
0
HT X - FT X
0%
0
20%
2
xG(xGa)
Leicester
Derby
xG
1.16
1.02
xGa
1.47
1.07
Number of goals
Leicester
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
20%
2
80%
8
1.5
60%
6
40%
4
90%
9
10%
1
2.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Leicester
Derby
Yes
0%
0
10%
1
No
100%
10
90%
9
1X2
Leicester
Derby
1
50%
5
70%
7
X
10%
1
20%
2
2
40%
4
10%
1
Double Chance
Leicester
Derby
12
90%
9
80%
8
1X
60%
6
90%
9
X2
50%
5
30%
3
Total Goals
Leicester
Derby
0-1
30%
3
70%
7
2-3
60%
6
30%
3
4+
10%
1
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Leicester
Derby
Yes
60%
6
80%
8
No
40%
4
20%
2
Number of goals
Leicester
Under
Over
Derby
Under
Over
0.5
60%
6
40%
4
30%
3
70%
7
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
80%
8
20%
2
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Leicester
Derby
Yes
20%
2
50%
5
No
80%
8
50%
5
1X2
Leicester
Derby
1
30%
3
30%
3
X
20%
2
40%
4
2
50%
5
30%
3
Double Chance
Leicester
Derby
12
80%
8
60%
6
1X
50%
5
70%
7
X2
70%
7
70%
7
Total Goals
Leicester
Derby
0-1
60%
6
30%
3
2-3
40%
4
60%
6
4+
0%
0
10%
1
Clean Sheet
Leicester
Derby
Yes
30%
3
30%
3
No
70%
7
70%
7
Team comparison
Prediction
Double chance : Leicester or draw
Goals Home:
-2.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions
Legend: High ConfidenceMedium ConfidenceLow Confidence
📊 Asian Handicap Details
- Total outcomes: 20
- Sum of probabilities: 999.98%
- Expected: ~300% (multiple independent pairs)
- ⚠️ High total - this is normal for Asian Handicap (multiple independent pairs)
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
Team Total Predictions
| Team | Outcome | Probability | Confidence | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Over 1.5 | 35.27% | Low | 2.27 |
| Under 1.5 | 64.73% | Medium | 1.61 | |
| Away | Over 1.5 | 38.39% | Low | 3.64 |
| Under 1.5 | 61.61% | Medium | 1.27 | |
| Home | Over 2.5 | 12.99% | Low | 5.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 87.01% | High | 1.15 | |
| Away | Over 2.5 | 14.99% | Low | 10.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 85.01% | High | 1.04 |
Team Total Details
- Thresholds: 1.5, 2.5 goals
- Markets: Total - Home, Total - Away
- Each team has Over/Under predictions for each threshold
Leicester
Derby
Played:
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
0
0
Wins
0
0
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
3
3
Goals
1
1
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
3
2
2
Yellow Cards
3
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Clean Sheets
0
2
2
Corners
5
5
11
11
Fouls
10
10
1
1
Offsides
2
2
4
4
Shots
17
17
4
4
Shots on Goal
4
4
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 10 | 12 | 22 | |||
| Wins | 4 | 4 | 8 | |||
| Draws | 4 | 3 | 7 | |||
| Losses | 2 | 5 | 7 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.4 | 14 | 1.4 | 17 | 1.4 | 31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 11 | 1.7 | 20 | 1.4 | 31 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.2 | 22 | 1.7 | 20 | 1.9 | 42 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 2 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.1 | 3 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 59 | 4.1 | 49 | 4.9 | 108 |
| Fouls | 10.6 | 106 | 11.3 | 135 | 11 | 241 |
| Offsides | 1.1 | 11 | 1.2 | 14 | 1.1 | 25 |
| Shots | 13.2 | 132 | 10.7 | 128 | 11.8 | 260 |
| Shots on Goal | 4.2 | 42 | 3.5 | 42 | 3.8 | 84 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 12 | 10 | 22 | |||
| Wins | 3 | 5 | 8 | |||
| Draws | 5 | 2 | 7 | |||
| Losses | 4 | 3 | 7 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.3 | 15 | 1.6 | 16 | 1.4 | 31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 18 | 1.2 | 12 | 1.4 | 30 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.2 | 26 | 2.5 | 25 | 2.3 | 51 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Clean Sheets | 0.2 | 2 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.2 | 4 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 64 | 4 | 40 | 4.7 | 104 |
| Fouls | 10.9 | 131 | 12.5 | 125 | 11.6 | 256 |
| Offsides | 1.9 | 23 | 0.9 | 9 | 1.5 | 32 |
| Shots | 10.3 | 123 | 7.8 | 78 | 9.1 | 201 |
| Shots on Goal | 3.3 | 40 | 2.9 | 29 | 3.1 | 69 |
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