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Derby vs Leicester: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Saturday, 6 December, 2025 6:30
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Upgrade to PremiumDerby vs Leicester: Championship Clash Preview
Crucial Championship Encounter
This Championship clash sees Derby County hosting Leicester City, with both teams vying for crucial points in a tightly contested league. Currently, Derby sits 11th with 26 points, just ahead of Leicester in 16th place with 24 points, making this match pivotal for both teams as they aim to climb the standings.
Current Form & Trends
Both teams enter this match in contrasting form, which could heavily influence the outcome.
- Derby: Despite a recent loss to Middlesbrough, Derby has shown resilience at home with three wins in their last five matches. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded in home matches, indicating a solid defense paired with a capable attack.
- Leicester: Leicester has struggled recently, particularly away from home. They have only managed two wins in their last five matches and concede an average of 1.6 goals on the road, making them vulnerable at the back.
Head-to-Head
There is no recent head-to-head history between these two sides, as they have not faced each other in the last five competitive matches. This could lend an element of unpredictability to the fixture, as both teams will be looking to make a statement against each other.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
In terms of tactical approach, Derby is likely to focus on maintaining stability at the back while looking to exploit Leicester's defensive vulnerabilities. The absence of key forward C. Morris due to injury could impact Derby's attacking potency. Leicester will rely on the experience of defender J. Vestergaard to shore up their defense, but they will need to improve their away form to earn points.
AI Prediction
Winner Prediction: Draw.
Predicted Score: Derby 1 - 1 Leicester
Reasoning: Given Derby's home form and Leicester's struggles away, a draw seems the most likely outcome, especially with both teams averaging a similar number of goals scored and conceded.
Betting Tips
- Safe Bet: Double Chance - X2 @ 1.5 (65.8%).
- Value Bet: Goals Over/Under - Under 2.5 @ 1.67 (63%).
Bet responsibly.
Probable Scores Heatmap
xG: 1.02 vs 1.09
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
12.58%
⭐
0:1
13.27%
⭐
0:2
7.01%
0:3
2.46%
0:4
0.65%
0:5
0.14%
1
1:0
12.33%
1:1
13.51%
🔥
1:2
7.39%
1:3
2.69%
1:4
0.73%
1:5
0.16%
2
2:0
6.05%
2:1
6.86%
2:2
3.88%
2:3
1.46%
2:4
0.41%
2:5
0.09%
3
3:0
1.98%
3:1
2.32%
3:2
1.36%
3:3
0.53%
3:4
0.15%
3:5
0.04%
4
4:0
0.48%
4:1
0.59%
4:2
0.36%
4:3
0.14%
4:4
0.04%
4:5
0.01%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.12%
5:2
0.07%
5:3
0.03%
5:4
0.01%
5:5
0%
Hotspot:
1:1 (13.5%)
Total Boundaries:
0, 1, 2, 3, 4
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
Championship 2025-2026 – Group #1
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
10
6
8
4
23
20
3
26
11
7
5
6
25
25
0
26
12
7
4
7
20
22
-2
25
15
6
6
6
24
23
1
24
16
6
6
6
22
23
-1
24
17
6
5
7
18
23
-5
23
Last 6 Matches
Derby
VS
Leicester
4/6 (67%)
Victories
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Draws
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Defeats
3/6 (50%)
2.00
PPG
1.17
2.00
Avg Goals Scored
1.17
1.50
Avg Goals Conceded
1.83
100%
BTTS %
67%
17%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
0%
0.94
Avg xG
1.11
Missing Players
-
Injured - Torn knee ligaments
-
Injured - Inactive
-
Injured - Hamstring Injury
-
Injured - Injury
-
Injured - Injury
-
Injured - Calf Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Inactive
-
Injured - Knock
-
Injured - Injury
-
Injured - Hamstring Injury
-
Injured - Achilles Tendon Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Inactive
-
Injured - (questionable) Groin Injury
1.06
xG [Total: 2.14]
1.08
2
Yellow Cards [Total: 4]
2
5
Corners [Total: 9]
4
2
Offsides [Total: 3]
1
12
Fouls [Total: 22]
11
3
Shots on Goal [Total: 7]
4
In this exciting Championship 2025-2026 - Regular Season matchup, Derby will take on Leicester as part of the 2025-2026 season in Championship. This match is part of Matchweek 19 and will take place on 2025-12-06 at 2025-12-06 in the famous Pride Park Stadium.
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, Derby, and the visiting side, Leicester. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : draw or Leicester.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2025-12-06
Time: 12:30
Location: Pride Park Stadium
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for Derby vs Leicester Saturday, Dec 6th, 2025 at 6:30 Football
Value Bets
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Trends for Derby vs Leicester Football 6 Dec, 2025 6:30
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 3 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
BTTS Magnet
Both teams score in 67% of recent matches — strong BTTS pattern
-
Physical Battle Expected
High card rate in recent matches — expect aggressive, physical encounter with 4+ cards
+1 more advanced pattern is hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 3 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for Derby vs Leicester, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner — Derby @ 2.77 ⚠️ 
Derby
- Efficient ScoringRecent23/3077%Derby efficiently convert chances (high accuracy) in 23 of their last 30 Championship matches
Derby demonstrate superior form across all key metrics.
⚽ Both Teams To Score — Yes @ 2.01
Derby(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague6/967%Derby score (1.33/match) and concede (1.44/match) regularly at home - BTTS in 67% of matches (league avg: 59%)
Leicester(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague6/967%Leicester score (1.22/match) and concede (1.44/match) regularly in away matches - BTTS in 67% of matches (league avg: 59%)
⚡ Team Total Goals
Derby(2 trends)
- Conceded Under 1.5 GoalsRecent13/1587%Derby conceded under 1.5 goals in 13 of their last 15 Championship (Home) matches
- Conceded Under 1.5 GoalsRecent23/3077%Derby conceded under 1.5 goals in 23 of their last 30 Championship matches
🟨 Cards Over/Under — Over 3.5 Cards @ 2.12 ✅ 
Derby(3 trends)
- High Card MatchesLeague18/1890%Derby average 2.4 cards/match in all matches (+35% above league avg 1.8) — rank #1 in league
- Many CardsRecent13/1587%Derby receive 2+ cards in 13 of their last 15 Championship (Home) matches
- Many CardsRecent25/3083%Derby receive 2+ cards in 25 of their last 30 Championship matches
Leicester(1 trends)
- High Card MatchesLeague18/1881.5%Leicester average 2.0 cards/match in all matches (+11% above league avg 1.8)
Both teams show aggressive play - Over 3.5 Cards @ 2.12
+16 Streak trends are hidden
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Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
Derby vs Leicester
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
🚀 Match Start: Leicester is stronger in the first 15 minutes (5 vs 2).
⏰ First Half: Leicester is stronger in the first half (12 vs 6).
🔄 Second Half: Derby is stronger in the second half (12 vs 7).
⚡ Final Stage: Derby is stronger in the final minutes (8 vs 5).
💡 Recommendation: Teams are equal in strength. Consider bets on draw or exact score.
⏰ First Half: Leicester is stronger in the first half (12 vs 6).
🔄 Second Half: Derby is stronger in the second half (12 vs 7).
⚡ Final Stage: Derby is stronger in the final minutes (8 vs 5).
💡 Recommendation: Teams are equal in strength. Consider bets on draw or exact score.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 Derby
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.25
Pressure
0.11
✈️ Leicester
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
-0.02
Pressure
0.12
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 Derby - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
2
Avg. Goals per Match
0.1
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.3
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
✈️ Leicester - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
7
Avg. Goals per Match
0.35
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 Derby - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
3
Comeback Goals
11
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
6
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
2
Late Pressure
8
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
2
Half-time Spurts
4
Second Half Starts
4
Late Surges
8
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
5
✈️ Leicester - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
1
Comeback Goals
4
Negative Sequences
2
Killer Goals
10
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
5
Late Pressure
5
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
5
Half-time Spurts
7
Second Half Starts
2
Late Surges
5
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
4
Late Conceded
6
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- 🚀 Away Fast Start: Leicester often scores in the first 15 minutes (5 vs 2)
- First Goal Away: High probability of Leicester scoring first
- ⏰ Away First Half: Leicester is stronger in the first half (12 vs 6)
- First Half Result: Consider Leicester to win the first half
- 🔄 Second Half Dominance: Derby shows superior performance after the break (12 vs 7 goals)
- Second Half Winner: High probability of Derby winning the second half
- ⚡ Final Stage Mastery: Derby excels in the closing minutes (8 vs 5 late goals)
- Last Goal Scorer: High probability of Derby scoring the final goal
- Late Goals Market: Consider bets on goals after 75th minute
- Overall Result: Teams are equal in strength
- Draw: Consider draw bets
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Home +0.265
Pressure (Advantage)
Away +0.009
Timing (Advantage)
Away +0.003 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Home +0.023
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (Derby):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Leicester):
Momentum: Weak - team may lose concentration. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Teams are approximately equal in strength across all periods. Consider bets on draw, low total goals, or exact score.
Derby vs Leicester Head-to-head statistics for Sat 6 Dec, 2025 @ 6:30 Championship
Derby vs Leicester: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Home/Away: Shows home matches for Derby and away matches for Leicester
Number of goals
Number of goals
Derby
Under
Over
Leicester
Under
Over
0.5
10%
1
90%
9
30%
3
70%
7
1.5
50%
5
50%
5
60%
6
40%
4
2.5
90%
9
10%
1
90%
9
10%
1
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Derby
Leicester
Yes
70%
7
70%
7
No
30%
3
30%
3
1X2
1X2
Derby
Leicester
1
60%
6
30%
3
X
10%
1
20%
2
2
30%
3
50%
5
Double Chance
Double Chance
Derby
Leicester
12
90%
9
80%
8
1X
70%
7
50%
5
X2
40%
4
70%
7
Total Goals
Total Goals
Derby
Leicester
0-1
30%
3
10%
1
2-3
50%
5
70%
7
4+
20%
2
20%
2
Total Corners
Total Corners
Derby
Under
Over
Leicester
Under
Over
7.5
70%
7
30%
3
80%
8
20%
2
8.5
80%
8
20%
2
80%
8
20%
2
9.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
10.5
100%
10
0%
0
90%
9
10%
1
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Derby
Leicester
Yes
20%
2
0%
0
No
80%
8
100%
10
1X2 HT - FT
1X2 HT - FT
Derby
Leicester
HT 1 - FT 1
50%
5
20%
2
HT 1 - FT 2
20%
2
0%
0
HT 1 - FT X
0%
0
20%
2
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
10%
1
50%
5
HT 2 - FT X
0%
0
0%
0
HT X - FT 1
10%
1
10%
1
HT X - FT 2
0%
0
0%
0
HT X - FT X
10%
1
0%
0
xG(xGa)
xG(xGa)
Derby
Leicester
xG
0.98
1.14
xGa
1.28
1.33
Number of goals
Number of goals
Derby
Under
Over
Leicester
Under
Over
0.5
20%
2
80%
8
60%
6
40%
4
1.5
90%
9
10%
1
90%
9
10%
1
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Derby
Leicester
Yes
10%
1
0%
0
No
90%
9
100%
10
1X2
1X2
Derby
Leicester
1
70%
7
40%
4
X
20%
2
10%
1
2
10%
1
50%
5
Double Chance
Double Chance
Derby
Leicester
12
80%
8
90%
9
1X
90%
9
50%
5
X2
30%
3
60%
6
Total Goals
Total Goals
Derby
Leicester
0-1
80%
8
60%
6
2-3
20%
2
40%
4
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Derby
Leicester
Yes
80%
8
50%
5
No
20%
2
50%
5
Number of goals
Number of goals
Derby
Under
Over
Leicester
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
60%
6
40%
4
1.5
90%
9
10%
1
70%
7
30%
3
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Derby
Leicester
Yes
40%
4
20%
2
No
60%
6
80%
8
1X2
1X2
Derby
Leicester
1
20%
2
40%
4
X
50%
5
20%
2
2
30%
3
40%
4
Double Chance
Double Chance
Derby
Leicester
12
50%
5
80%
8
1X
70%
7
60%
6
X2
80%
8
60%
6
Total Goals
Total Goals
Derby
Leicester
0-1
50%
5
70%
7
2-3
40%
4
30%
3
4+
10%
1
0%
0
Clean Sheet
Clean Sheet
Derby
Leicester
Yes
40%
4
40%
4
No
60%
6
60%
6
Team comparison
Prediction
-2.5 goals
Goals Home:
-2.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions
Legend: High ConfidenceMedium ConfidenceLow Confidence
📊 Asian Handicap Details
- Total outcomes: 20
- Sum of probabilities: 1,000.00%
- Expected: ~300% (multiple independent pairs)
- ⚠️ High total - this is normal for Asian Handicap (multiple independent pairs)
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
Team Total Predictions
| Team | Outcome | Probability | Confidence | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Over 1.5 | 27.14% | Low | 3.00 |
| Under 1.5 | 72.86% | High | 1.42 | |
| Away | Over 1.5 | 29.89% | Low | 2.97 |
| Under 1.5 | 70.11% | High | 1.44 | |
| Home | Over 2.5 | 8.39% | Low | 8.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 91.61% | High | 1.10 | |
| Away | Over 2.5 | 9.85% | Low | 8.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 90.15% | High | 1.10 |
Team Total Details
- Thresholds: 1.5, 2.5 goals
- Markets: Total - Home, Total - Away
- Each team has Over/Under predictions for each threshold
Derby
Leicester
Played:
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Wins
0
0
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | |||
| Wins | 3 | 4 | 7 | |||
| Draws | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||
| Losses | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.3 | 12 | 1.4 | 13 | 1.4 | 25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 13 | 1.3 | 12 | 1.4 | 25 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.2 | 20 | 2.7 | 24 | 2.4 | 44 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Clean Sheets | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 3 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 44 | 3.9 | 35 | 4.4 | 79 |
| Fouls | 11.8 | 106 | 13 | 117 | 12.4 | 223 |
| Offsides | 1.9 | 17 | 0.9 | 8 | 1.4 | 25 |
| Shots | 9.1 | 82 | 7 | 63 | 8.1 | 145 |
| Shots on Goal | 3 | 27 | 2.4 | 22 | 2.7 | 49 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | |||
| Wins | 3 | 3 | 6 | |||
| Draws | 4 | 2 | 6 | |||
| Losses | 2 | 4 | 6 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 1.2 | 11 | 1.2 | 11 | 1.2 | 22 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 10 | 1.4 | 13 | 1.3 | 23 |
| Yellow Cards | 2.3 | 21 | 1.4 | 13 | 1.9 | 34 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 2 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 3 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 53 | 4.7 | 42 | 5.3 | 95 |
| Fouls | 10.8 | 97 | 10.7 | 96 | 10.7 | 193 |
| Offsides | 0.9 | 8 | 1.1 | 10 | 1 | 18 |
| Shots | 13.4 | 121 | 11.7 | 105 | 12.6 | 226 |
| Shots on Goal | 4.2 | 38 | 3.6 | 32 | 3.9 | 70 |
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