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AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Wednesday, 21 January, 2026 11:45
Betting Tip
+2.5 goalsNo high-confidence tip found, displaying main verdict.
Prediction League
Probable Scores Heatmap
xG: 3.98 vs 2.04
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
0.37%
⭐
0:1
0.7%
⭐
0:2
0.65%
⭐
0:3
0.4%
0:4
0.19%
0:5
0.07%
⭐
1
1:0
1.42%
1:1
2.72%
⭐
1:2
2.59%
⭐
1:3
1.65%
1:4
0.79%
⭐
1:5
0.3%
⭐
2
2:0
2.7%
2:1
5.29%
⭐
2:2
5.17%
2:3
3.36%
2:4
1.64%
⭐
2:5
0.64%
3
3:0
3.43%
3:1
6.87%
🔥
3:2
6.87%
3:3
4.57%
3:4
2.28%
⭐
3:5
0.91%
⭐
4
4:0
3.26%
4:1
6.68%
4:2
6.83%
⭐
4:3
4.65%
4:4
2.37%
⭐
4:5
0.96%
5
5:0
2.48%
⭐
5:1
5.2%
⭐
5:2
5.43%
⭐
5:3
3.78%
⭐
5:4
1.96%
5:5
0.82%
Hotspot:
3:1 (6.9%)
Total Boundaries:
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
4.84
xG
1.34
63%
Ball Possession
37%
16
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Goal
4
10
Shots Off Goal
7
7
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
2
Last 6 Matches
AZ Alkmaar
VS
Excelsior
2/6 (33%)
Victories
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Draws
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Defeats
2/6 (33%)
0.67
PPG
1.67
1.67
Avg Goals Scored
1.33
1.17
Avg Goals Conceded
1.33
33%
BTTS %
67%
33%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
0%
2.00
Avg xG
1.57
Missing Players
-
Injured - Jumpers knee
In this exciting Eredivisie 2025-2026 matchup, AZ Alkmaar will take on Excelsior as part of the 2025-2026 season in Eredivisie. This match is part of Matchweek 1 and will take place on 2026-01-21 at 2026-01-21 in the famous AFAS Stadion.
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, AZ Alkmaar, and the visiting side, Excelsior. The scoreline predictions suggest Double chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2026-01-21
Time: 17:45
Location: AFAS Stadion
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Trends for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Football 21 Jan, 2026 11:45
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 7 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
BTTS Magnet
Both teams score in 100% of recent matches — strong BTTS pattern
-
Dominant Chance Creation
AZ Alkmaar create high-quality chances consistently (xG 1.5+) — strong attacking threat with quality service
+5 more advanced patterns are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 7 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner
AZ Alkmaar(2 trends)
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%AZ Alkmaar score 2.57 goals/match at home (+58% above league average)
- High xG PerformanceRecent16/16100%AZ Alkmaar create many chances (xG 1.5+) in 16 of their last 16 Eredivisie matches
⚽ Both Teams To Score
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague7/7100%AZ Alkmaar score (2.57/match) and concede (2.14/match) regularly at home - BTTS in 100% of matches (league avg: 62%)
Excelsior(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague5/771%Excelsior score (1.14/match) and concede (2.43/match) regularly in away matches - BTTS in 71% of matches (league avg: 62%)
🎯 Over/Under 2.5 Goals
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends)
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%AZ Alkmaar score 2.57 goals/match at home (+58% above league average)
Excelsior(1 trends)
- Few GoalsRecent12/1675%Excelsior scored 0-1 goals in 12 of their last 16 Eredivisie matches
Teams average combined 2.6 goals per match
⚡ Team Total Goals
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends)
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%AZ Alkmaar score 2.57 goals/match at home (+58% above league average)
Excelsior(1 trends)
- Scored 1+Recent12/1675%Excelsior scored 1+ goals in 12 of their last 16 Eredivisie matches
🟨 Cards Over/Under
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends) — avg 2.2 (+34% above league)
- High Card MatchesLeague16/1690%AZ Alkmaar average 2.5 cards/match in all matches (+39% above league avg 1.8) — rank #1 in league
Excelsior disciplined play balances AZ Alkmaar aggression —
🚩 Corners Over/Under
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends) — avg 6.7 (+31% above league)
- Many CornersLeague7/785%AZ Alkmaar average 6.7 corners/match at home (+31% above league avg 5.1)
Excelsior(1 trends) — avg 4.3 (-16% below league)
- Few CornersLeague7/781%Excelsior average 4.3 corners/match in away matches (-16% below league avg 5.1)
Combined average: 11.0 corners/match (AZ Alkmaar 6.7 + Excelsior 4.3)
+3 Streak trends are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all advanced streak trends and patterns
Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
🚀 Match Start: Excelsior is stronger in the first 15 minutes (6 vs 3).
⏰ First Half: AZ Alkmaar is stronger in the first half (15 vs 10).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the home team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⏰ First Half: AZ Alkmaar is stronger in the first half (15 vs 10).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the home team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 AZ Alkmaar
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.05
Pressure
0.11
✈️ Excelsior
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.14
Pressure
0.14
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 AZ Alkmaar - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
3
Avg. Goals per Match
0.15
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
15
Avg. Goals per Match
0.75
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
7
Avg. Goals per Match
0.35
✈️ Excelsior - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.3
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
10
Avg. Goals per Match
0.5
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
6
Avg. Goals per Match
0.3
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 AZ Alkmaar - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
4
Comeback Goals
5
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
12
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
3
Late Pressure
7
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
3
Half-time Spurts
12
Second Half Starts
5
Late Surges
7
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
4
Late Conceded
6
✈️ Excelsior - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
6
Comeback Goals
6
Negative Sequences
4
Killer Goals
8
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
6
Late Pressure
6
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
6
Half-time Spurts
4
Second Half Starts
6
Late Surges
6
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
6
Late Conceded
7
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- 🚀 Away Fast Start: Excelsior often scores in the first 15 minutes (6 vs 3)
- First Goal Away: High probability of Excelsior scoring first
- ⏰ Home First Half: AZ Alkmaar is stronger in the first half (15 vs 10)
- First Half Result: Consider AZ Alkmaar to win the first half
- Overall Result: AZ Alkmaar has an advantage in the match
- Home Handicap: Consider AZ Alkmaar handicap
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.093
Pressure (Advantage)
Away +0.029
Timing (Advantage)
Home +0.013 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Home +0.038
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (AZ Alkmaar):
Momentum: Moderate - team shows stable play. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Excelsior):
Momentum: Strong - team reacts well to changes in the match. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Teams are approximately equal in strength across all periods. Consider bets on draw, low total goals, or exact score.
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Head-to-head statistics for Wed 21 Jan, 2026 @ 11:45 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams ℹ️
Home/Away: Shows home matches for AZ Alkmaar and away matches for Excelsior
Number of goals
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
0.5
20%
2
80%
8
20%
2
80%
8
1.5
60%
6
40%
4
70%
7
30%
3
2.5
80%
8
20%
2
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
50%
5
60%
6
No
50%
5
40%
4
1X2
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
1
30%
3
40%
4
X
20%
2
10%
1
2
50%
5
50%
5
Double Chance
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
12
80%
8
90%
9
1X
50%
5
50%
5
X2
70%
7
60%
6
Total Goals
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
0-1
30%
3
20%
2
2-3
20%
2
70%
7
4+
50%
5
10%
1
Total Corners
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
7.5
50%
5
50%
5
90%
9
10%
1
8.5
80%
8
20%
2
90%
9
10%
1
9.5
90%
9
10%
1
90%
9
10%
1
10.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
Clean Sheet
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
40%
4
20%
2
No
60%
6
80%
8
1X2 HT - FT
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
HT 1 - FT 1
10%
1
40%
4
HT 1 - FT 2
0%
0
20%
2
HT 1 - FT X
10%
1
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
30%
3
0%
0
HT 2 - FT X
0%
0
10%
1
HT X - FT 1
20%
2
0%
0
HT X - FT 2
20%
2
30%
3
HT X - FT X
10%
1
0%
0
xG(xGa)
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
xG
1.67
1.39
xGa
1.37
1.92
Number of goals
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
0.5
60%
6
40%
4
20%
2
80%
8
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
100%
10
0%
0
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
30%
3
20%
2
No
70%
7
80%
8
1X2
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
1
20%
2
60%
6
X
50%
5
30%
3
2
30%
3
10%
1
Double Chance
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
12
50%
5
70%
7
1X
70%
7
90%
9
X2
80%
8
40%
4
Total Goals
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
0-1
50%
5
80%
8
2-3
30%
3
20%
2
4+
20%
2
0%
0
Clean Sheet
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
50%
5
80%
8
No
50%
5
20%
2
Number of goals
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
0.5
40%
4
60%
6
70%
7
30%
3
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
100%
10
0%
0
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
30%
3
20%
2
No
70%
7
80%
8
1X2
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
1
30%
3
10%
1
X
30%
3
40%
4
2
40%
4
50%
5
Double Chance
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
12
70%
7
60%
6
1X
60%
6
50%
5
X2
70%
7
90%
9
Total Goals
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
0-1
40%
4
40%
4
2-3
60%
6
60%
6
4+
0%
0
0%
0
Clean Sheet
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
40%
4
30%
3
No
60%
6
70%
7
Team comparison
Prediction
+2.5 goals
Goals Home:
+1.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
🎯 Asian Handicap Predictions
Legend: High ConfidenceMedium ConfidenceLow Confidence
📊 Asian Handicap Details
- Total outcomes: 20
- Sum of probabilities: 999.74%
- Expected: ~300% (multiple independent pairs)
- ⚠️ High total - this is normal for Asian Handicap (multiple independent pairs)
Match Prediction: Home vs Away
Team Total Predictions
| Team | Outcome | Probability | Confidence | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Over 1.5 | 90.69% | High | N/A |
| Under 1.5 | 9.31% | Low | N/A | |
| Away | Over 1.5 | 60.47% | Medium | N/A |
| Under 1.5 | 39.53% | Low | N/A | |
| Home | Over 2.5 | 75.90% | High | N/A |
| Under 2.5 | 24.10% | Low | N/A | |
| Away | Over 2.5 | 33.41% | Low | N/A |
| Under 2.5 | 66.59% | Medium | N/A |
Team Total Details
- Thresholds: 1.5, 2.5 goals
- Markets: Total - Home, Total - Away
- Each team has Over/Under predictions for each threshold
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Played:
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
1
1
Wins
0
0
Total
Per Match
Per Match
Total
1
1
Goals
1
1
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
1
3
3
Yellow Cards
2
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Clean Sheets
0
7
7
Corners
3
3
9
9
Fouls
11
11
1
1
Offsides
1
1
11
11
Shots
15
15
4
4
Shots on Goal
5
5
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 7 | 9 | 16 | |||
| Wins | 3 | 4 | 7 | |||
| Draws | 3 | 1 | 4 | |||
| Losses | 1 | 4 | 5 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 2.6 | 18 | 1.4 | 13 | 1.9 | 31 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.1 | 15 | 1.4 | 13 | 1.8 | 28 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 14 | 2.8 | 25 | 2.4 | 39 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.2 | 3 | |
| Corners | 6.7 | 47 | 5.9 | 53 | 6.3 | 100 |
| Fouls | 8.4 | 59 | 11.4 | 103 | 10.1 | 162 |
| Offsides | 0.7 | 5 | 1.1 | 10 | 0.9 | 15 |
| Shots | 17.3 | 121 | 15.9 | 143 | 16.5 | 264 |
| Shots on Goal | 6.3 | 44 | 5.8 | 52 | 6 | 96 |
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Played | 9 | 7 | 16 | |||
| Wins | 4 | 2 | 6 | |||
| Draws | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Losses | 5 | 4 | 9 | |||
| Home | Away | All | ||||
| Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | Per Match | Total | |
| Goals | 0.9 | 8 | 1.1 | 8 | 1 | 16 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 10 | 2.4 | 17 | 1.7 | 27 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.4 | 13 | 1.6 | 11 | 1.5 | 24 |
| Red Cards | 0.3 | 3 | 0 | 0.2 | 3 | |
| Clean Sheets | 0.3 | 3 | 0 | 0.2 | 3 | |
| Corners | 3.9 | 35 | 4.3 | 30 | 4.1 | 65 |
| Fouls | 12.8 | 115 | 14.6 | 102 | 13.6 | 217 |
| Offsides | 1.1 | 10 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.8 | 13 |
| Shots | 11.8 | 106 | 11.9 | 83 | 11.8 | 189 |
| Shots on Goal | 3.9 | 35 | 4.4 | 31 | 4.1 | 66 |
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