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AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior: Match Preview, Predictions & Tips - Wednesday, 21 January, 2026 11:45
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13
Played
8
Wins
4
Draws
1
Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
2.2
(29 total)
xG
1.70
(21.6 total)
Shots per Match
17.5
(228 total)
Shots on Target
6.9
(39% acc)
Corners
7
(91 total)
Defense
Conceded
1.2
per match
xGa
0.70
per match
Clean Sheets
5
(38%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.9
avg
Red Cards
0
(0 total)
Fouls
9.2
(120 total)
Offsides
1.3
(17 total)
15
Played
7
Wins
1
Draws
7
Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
1.4
(21 total)
xG
1.40
(21.6 total)
Shots per Match
14
(210 total)
Shots on Target
5.1
(37% acc)
Corners
4.7
(71 total)
Defense
Conceded
1.5
per match
xGa
1.40
per match
Clean Sheets
6
(40%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
2.7
avg
Red Cards
0.2
(3 total)
Fouls
11.5
(173 total)
Offsides
1.1
(16 total)
28
Played
15
Wins
5
Draws
8
Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
1.8
(50 total)
xG
1.50
(43.2 total)
Shots per Match
15.6
(438 total)
Shots on Target
6
(38% acc)
Corners
5.8
(162 total)
Defense
Conceded
1.4
per match
xGa
1.10
per match
Clean Sheets
11
(39%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
2.3
avg
Red Cards
0.1
(3 total)
Fouls
10.5
(293 total)
Offsides
1.2
(33 total)
10
Played
4
Wins
1
Draws
5
Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
1
(10 total)
xG
1.40
(13.9 total)
Shots per Match
11.9
(119 total)
Shots on Target
3.8
(32% acc)
Corners
3.8
(38 total)
Defense
Conceded
1.2
per match
xGa
1.90
per match
Clean Sheets
3
(30%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.6
avg
Red Cards
0.3
(3 total)
Fouls
12.5
(125 total)
Offsides
1.1
(11 total)
8
Played
2
Wins
1
Draws
5
Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
1.1
(9 total)
xG
1.10
(8.8 total)
Shots per Match
11.4
(91 total)
Shots on Target
4.3
(37% acc)
Corners
4.3
(34 total)
Defense
Conceded
2.8
per match
xGa
2.00
per match
Clean Sheets
0
(0%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.5
avg
Red Cards
0
(0 total)
Fouls
13.6
(109 total)
Offsides
0.5
(4 total)
18
Played
6
Wins
2
Draws
10
Losses
Attack
Goals Scored
1.1
(19 total)
xG
1.30
(22.7 total)
Shots per Match
11.7
(210 total)
Shots on Target
4
(34% acc)
Corners
4
(72 total)
Defense
Conceded
1.9
per match
xGa
2.00
per match
Clean Sheets
3
(17%)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
1.6
avg
Red Cards
0.2
(3 total)
Fouls
13
(234 total)
Offsides
0.8
(15 total)
Probable Scores Heatmap
xG: 4.34 vs 1.59
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
0.4%
0:1
0.6%
0:2
0.45%
0:3
0.23%
0:4
0.09%
0:5
0.03%
1
1:0
1.69%
1:1
2.58%
1:2
1.98%
1:3
1.01%
1:4
0.38%
⭐
1:5
0.12%
2
2:0
3.6%
2:1
5.57%
2:2
4.31%
2:3
2.22%
⭐
2:4
0.86%
⭐
2:5
0.27%
⭐
3
3:0
5.11%
3:1
8.01%
3:2
6.27%
⭐
3:3
3.27%
⭐
3:4
1.28%
⭐
3:5
0.4%
⭐
4
4:0
5.44%
4:1
8.63%
🔥
⭐
4:2
6.84%
⭐
4:3
3.61%
⭐
4:4
1.43%
⭐
4:5
0.45%
5
5:0
4.64%
⭐
5:1
7.44%
⭐
5:2
5.96%
⭐
5:3
3.18%
⭐
5:4
1.27%
⭐
5:5
0.41%
Hotspot:
4:1 (8.6%)
Total Boundaries:
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Probability Distribution by Total Goals
Most Probable
In this exciting Eredivisie 2025-2026 matchup, AZ Alkmaar will take on Excelsior as part of the 2025-2026 season in Eredivisie. This match is part of Matchweek 1 and will take place on 2026-01-21 at 2026-01-21 in the famous AFAS Stadion.
The referee for the game will be . Fans can expect an intense battle between the home team, AZ Alkmaar, and the visiting side, Excelsior. The scoreline predictions suggest Combo Double chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw and +1.5 goals.
Kickoff Details:
Date: 2026-01-21
Time: 17:45
Location: AFAS Stadion
Stay tuned to see how the teams perform in this crucial game!
Value Bets and Betting Odds Comparison for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Wednesday, Jan 21st, 2026 at 11:45 Football
AI Value Bets
10 Found
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Upgrade to PremiumTrends for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Football 21 Jan, 2026 11:45
🤖 AI Pattern Insights
Our model identified 7 recurring performance patterns influencing this matchup:
-
BTTS Magnet
Both teams score in 100% of recent matches — strong BTTS pattern
-
Dominant Chance Creation
AZ Alkmaar create high-quality chances consistently (xG 1.5+) — strong attacking threat with quality service
+5 more advanced patterns are hidden
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all 7 AI-powered insights
Unlock Premium InsightsComprehensive betting trends for AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior, grouped by market type. Including recent form and head-to-head history.
🏆 Match Winner — AZ Alkmaar @ 1.35 ⚠️ 
AZ Alkmaar
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%AZ Alkmaar score 2.57 goals/match at home (+58% above league average)
- High xG PerformanceRecent16/16100%AZ Alkmaar create many chances (xG 1.5+) in 16 of their last 16 Eredivisie matches
AZ Alkmaar demonstrate superior form across all key metrics.
⚽ Both Teams To Score — Yes @ 1.70 ⚠️ 
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague7/7100%AZ Alkmaar score (2.57/match) and concede (2.14/match) regularly at home - BTTS in 100% of matches (league avg: 62%)
Excelsior(1 trends)
- BTTS FriendlyLeague5/771%Excelsior score (1.14/match) and concede (2.43/match) regularly in away matches - BTTS in 71% of matches (league avg: 62%)
🎯 Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Under 2.5 @ 3.10 ⚠️ 
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends)
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%AZ Alkmaar score 2.57 goals/match at home (+58% above league average)
Excelsior(1 trends)
- Few GoalsRecent12/1675%Excelsior scored 0-1 goals in 12 of their last 16 Eredivisie matches
Teams average combined 2.6 goals per match • Defensive consistency suggests Under 2.5
⚡ Team Total Goals — AZ Alkmaar Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.31 ⚠️
AZ Alkmaar
- Above League AverageLeague7/775%AZ Alkmaar score 2.57 goals/match at home (+58% above league average)
AZ Alkmaar's consistent scoring makes Over 1.5 a statistically sound pick.
🟨 Cards Over/Under — Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.93 ⚠️
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends) — avg 2.1 (+28% above league)
- High Card MatchesLeague16/1690%AZ Alkmaar average 2.5 cards/match in all matches (+39% above league avg 1.8) — rank #1 in league
AZ Alkmaar aggressive drives cards - Over 3.5 Cards @ 1.93
🚩 Corners Over/Under — Over 9.5 Corners @ 1.73 ⚠️ 
AZ Alkmaar(1 trends) — avg 6.7 (+31% above league)
- Many CornersLeague7/785%AZ Alkmaar average 6.7 corners/match at home (+31% above league avg 5.1)
Excelsior(1 trends) — avg 4.3 (-16% below league)
- Few CornersLeague7/781%Excelsior average 4.3 corners/match in away matches (-16% below league avg 5.1)
Combined average: 11.0 corners/match (AZ Alkmaar 6.7 + Excelsior 4.3) • AZ Alkmaar dominance pushes total over threshold
+3 Streak trends are hidden
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Unlock Streak Trends🎯 Betting Analysis
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior
🔮 Main Prediction by Periods
⏰ First Half: AZ Alkmaar is stronger in the first half (17 vs 12).
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the home team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
💡 Recommendation: The main advantage is on the home team's side. Consider bets on match outcome and corresponding halves.
⚔️ Team Comparison
🏠 AZ Alkmaar
Early Strength
Weak
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.01
Pressure
0.15
✈️ Excelsior
Early Strength
Strong
Matches Analyzed
20
Momentum
0.32
Pressure
0.16
⏰ Match Periods Analysis
📊 Periods Explanation:
Fast Start (0-15 min): Who starts the match better and scores in the first 15 minutes.
First Half (0-45 min): Overall team effectiveness in the first half.
Second Half (46-90 min): How teams play after the break.
Final Stage (76-90 min): Who is stronger in the final minutes of the match.
🏠 AZ Alkmaar - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
5
Avg. Goals per Match
0.25
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
17
Avg. Goals per Match
0.85
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
13
Avg. Goals per Match
0.65
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
8
Avg. Goals per Match
0.4
✈️ Excelsior - Periods
🚀 Fast Start (0-15 min)
Goals in First 15 min
7
Avg. Goals per Match
0.35
⏰ First Half (0-45 min)
First Half Goals
12
Avg. Goals per Match
0.6
🔄 Second Half (46-90 min)
Second Half Goals
13
Avg. Goals per Match
0.65
⚡ Final Stage (76-90 min)
Late Goals
7
Avg. Goals per Match
0.35
🏆 Detailed Team Analysis
🏠 AZ Alkmaar - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
4
Comeback Goals
4
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
13
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
5
Late Pressure
8
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
5
Half-time Spurts
12
Second Half Starts
5
Late Surges
8
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
4
✈️ Excelsior - Details
📈 Momentum Analysis
Positive Sequences
9
Comeback Goals
7
Negative Sequences
3
Killer Goals
9
⚡ Pressure Analysis
Early Pressure
7
Late Pressure
7
Pressure Goals
0
⏰ Timing Patterns
Fast Starts
7
Half-time Spurts
5
Second Half Starts
6
Late Surges
7
🛡️ Defensive Analysis
Early Conceded
3
Late Conceded
7
💡 Betting Recommendations by Periods
- ⏰ Home First Half: AZ Alkmaar is stronger in the first half (17 vs 12)
- First Half Result: Consider AZ Alkmaar to win the first half
- Overall Result: AZ Alkmaar has an advantage in the match
- Home Handicap: Consider AZ Alkmaar handicap
- Total Goals: Analyze team goal statistics
- Both Teams to Score: Consider defensive qualities of teams
📊 Factor Breakdown
💡 Factor Explanations:
Momentum: Team's ability to maintain and develop success. Shows how the team reacts to scored and conceded goals.
Pressure: Team's ability to create dangerous moments and score in important match moments.
Timing: Team's ability to score in specific periods of the match (start, end of half, etc.).
Defense: Defensive reliability in different periods of the match.
Momentum (Advantage)
Away +0.306
Pressure (Advantage)
Away +0.016
Timing (Advantage)
Home +0.013 (minimal)
Defense (Advantage)
Home +0.023
📝 Detailed Summary
🏠 Home Team Analysis (AZ Alkmaar):
Momentum: Weak - team may lose concentration. Pressure: Moderate - team periodically creates danger. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
✈️ Away Team Analysis (Excelsior):
Momentum: Very strong - team excellently maintains success and often scores in response. Pressure: High - team creates many dangerous moments. Defense: Vulnerable at the start of the match.
🎯 Final Betting Recommendations:
Teams are approximately equal in strength across all periods. Consider bets on draw, low total goals, or exact score.
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Head-to-head statistics for Wed 21 Jan, 2026 @ 11:45 Eredivisie
Team comparison
Prediction
AZ Alkmaar Over 1.5 Goals
Under/Over:
+1.5*
Goals Home:
+1.5*
Goals Away:
-2.5*
* -1.5 means that there will be a maximum of 1.5 goals in the fixture, i.e : 1 goal
Who Will Win
AZ Alkmaar
VS
Excelsior
Last 1 Head-to-Head Matches
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Wins
Attack
Goals Scored
1 (1)
1 (1)
Shots
11 (11)
15 (15)
Shots on Target
4 (4)
5 (5)
Corners
7 (7)
3 (3)
Defense
Conceded
1 (1)
1 (1)
Discipline
Yellow Cards
3 (3)
2 (2)
Fouls
9 (9)
11 (11)
Offsides
1 (1)
1 (1)
Last 6 Matches
AZ Alkmaar
VS
Excelsior
2/6 (33%)
Victories
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Draws
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Defeats
2/6 (33%)
0.67
PPG
1.67
1.67
Avg Goals Scored
1.33
1.50
Avg Goals Conceded
1.83
50%
BTTS %
67%
33%
Over 2.5 Goals Scored %
0%
2.12
Avg xG
1.15
AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior: Pre-match Stats Comparison
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams ℹ️
Home/Away: Shows home matches for AZ Alkmaar and away matches for Excelsior
Number of goals
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
0.5
20%
2
80%
8
20%
2
80%
8
1.5
60%
6
40%
4
60%
6
40%
4
2.5
80%
8
20%
2
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
50%
5
60%
6
No
50%
5
40%
4
1X2
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
1
30%
3
40%
4
X
20%
2
20%
2
2
50%
5
40%
4
Double Chance
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
12
80%
8
80%
8
1X
50%
5
60%
6
X2
70%
7
60%
6
Total Goals
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
0-1
30%
3
20%
2
2-3
20%
2
50%
5
4+
50%
5
30%
3
Total Corners
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
7.5
60%
6
40%
4
90%
9
10%
1
8.5
90%
9
10%
1
90%
9
10%
1
9.5
90%
9
10%
1
90%
9
10%
1
10.5
90%
9
10%
1
100%
10
0%
0
Clean Sheet
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
40%
4
20%
2
No
60%
6
80%
8
1X2 HT - FT
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
HT 1 - FT 1
20%
2
40%
4
HT 1 - FT 2
0%
0
10%
1
HT 1 - FT X
10%
1
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 1
0%
0
0%
0
HT 2 - FT 2
30%
3
10%
1
HT 2 - FT X
0%
0
10%
1
HT X - FT 1
10%
1
0%
0
HT X - FT 2
20%
2
20%
2
HT X - FT X
10%
1
10%
1
xG(xGa)
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
xG
1.61
1.31
xGa
1.1
1.82
Number of goals
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
30%
3
70%
7
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
100%
10
0%
0
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
30%
3
20%
2
No
70%
7
80%
8
1X2
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
1
30%
3
50%
5
X
40%
4
30%
3
2
30%
3
20%
2
Double Chance
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
12
60%
6
70%
7
1X
70%
7
80%
8
X2
70%
7
50%
5
Total Goals
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
0-1
50%
5
80%
8
2-3
30%
3
10%
1
4+
20%
2
10%
1
Clean Sheet
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
50%
5
80%
8
No
50%
5
20%
2
Number of goals
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Excelsior
Under
Over
0.5
50%
5
50%
5
60%
6
40%
4
1.5
80%
8
20%
2
90%
9
10%
1
2.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
3.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
4.5
100%
10
0%
0
100%
10
0%
0
Both teams to score
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
30%
3
30%
3
No
70%
7
70%
7
1X2
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
1
20%
2
10%
1
X
40%
4
50%
5
2
40%
4
40%
4
Double Chance
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
12
60%
6
50%
5
1X
60%
6
60%
6
X2
80%
8
90%
9
Total Goals
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
0-1
40%
4
40%
4
2-3
60%
6
50%
5
4+
0%
0
10%
1
Clean Sheet
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Yes
40%
4
30%
3
No
60%
6
70%
7
Missing Players
-
Injured - Ankle Injury
-
Injured - Injury
-
Injured - Groin Injury
-
Injured - (questionable) Injury
-
Injured - Jumpers knee
4.10
xG
1.26
63%
Ball Possession
38%
16
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Goal
4
9
Shots Off Goal
7
7
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
2
No Posts Found