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English Premier League 2025/26 Season Preview

Premier League 2025/26 season preview. In-depth analysis of title contenders, transfers, new managers, and relegation battles, with data, odds, and AI predictions.

1. Introduction: The Stage is Set for Premier League 2025/26

The Premier League, widely recognized as the most competitive and watched football league globally, is gearing up for another thrilling season. The 2025/26 campaign promises intense battles across the table, from the title race to the fight for European spots and the desperate struggle for survival. Last season saw Liverpool clinch the title, ending Manchester City's four-year dominance, while Leeds United, Burnley, and Sunderland earned promotion from the Championship, adding fresh dynamics to the top flight. This preview delves into all the crucial aspects shaping the upcoming season, offering an in-depth analysis of the calendar, key intrigues, team dynamics, significant transfers, and managerial shifts.

2. Season Kick-Off: Key Dates and Calendar Insights

The Premier League 2025/26 season is officially confirmed to commence on Friday, August 15, 2025.1 The opening fixture will feature reigning champions Liverpool hosting AFC Bournemouth.3 The campaign is set to conclude on

Sunday, May 24, 2026, with all matches kicking off simultaneously as is customary for the final match round.1 This end date is strategically chosen to ensure the Premier League season concludes well in advance of the FIFA 2026 World Cup call-up period, which begins on June 11, 2026.1

The structure of the season includes 33 weekend match rounds and five midweek match rounds.1 A notable consideration for player welfare is the scheduling, which ensures no two rounds take place within 60 hours of each other.1 Furthermore, there will be no fixture played on Christmas Eve, December 24, 2025, providing a brief respite during the traditionally congested festive period.1

International breaks are scheduled throughout the season, occurring on September 6, 2025, October 11, 2025, November 15, 2025, and March 28, 2026.7 These periods allow players to represent their national teams but also disrupt club rhythms. Major international competitions will also influence the calendar. The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, held from June to July 2025, will involve two Premier League teams, potentially impacting their pre-season preparations and early-season squad availability.2 Additionally, the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, scheduled for June-July 2025 and December 2025-January 2026, will see key African players depart their clubs mid-season, creating a significant challenge for affected teams during a crucial, traditionally congested period.7 The 2026 FIFA World Cup will then follow immediately after the Premier League season concludes.2

The Premier League's explicit commitment to player rest, evident in the 60-hour rule between matches and the absence of Christmas Eve fixtures, stands in deliberate contrast to the increasing demands of the global football calendar. The expanded Club World Cup and the timing of the Africa Cup of Nations present considerable challenges for clubs. This situation suggests a concerted effort by the league to mitigate player burnout, but the broader implication is that clubs possessing deeper squads will be significantly better equipped to navigate these demanding periods. Rotation will become not merely a tactical preference but a fundamental necessity for maintaining player health and performance longevity, potentially widening the competitive gap between the elite clubs and those with less squad depth.

The occurrence of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations in December 2025 and January 2026 means Premier League clubs will lose key African players during the traditionally congested festive period. This direct consequence of the AFCON timing will inevitably lead to squad strain. The ripple effect is that teams heavily reliant on African talent will face substantial challenges, potentially impacting their league form and cup runs during this specific window. This factor could subtly influence the relegation battle or the European qualification race, as certain teams may find themselves disproportionately affected by these mid-season absences.

Key Premier League 2025/26 Season Dates

FeatureDate / Details
Season Start DateFriday, August 15, 2025
Season End DateSunday, May 24, 2026
Weekend Match Rounds33
Midweek Match Rounds5
Christmas Fixture NoteNo fixture on December 24, 2025
International BreaksSept 6, Oct 11, Nov 15 (2025); March 28 (2026) 7
Major Tournament Overlaps2025 FIFA Club World Cup (Jun-Jul 2025); 2025/26 AFCON (Dec 2025-Jan 2026); 2026 FIFA World Cup (Jun-Jul 2026) 2

3. Main Intrigues: The Battles Ahead

The 2025/26 Premier League season is poised to deliver captivating narratives across the table, from the high-stakes title race to the intense battles for European qualification and the desperate fight against relegation.

The Title Race: Who Will Be Crowned Champions?

The English Premier League Title Race
The English Premier League Title Race

The Premier League title race for 2025/26 is shaping up to be a thrilling three-horse contest, with defending champions Liverpool, perennial contenders Manchester City, and an ever-improving Arsenal leading the pack.

Liverpool enters the season as the outright favorites, with oddsmakers listing them at around 2.85 (+190).8 Their dominant 2024-25 title win, secured with four games to spare, showcased their prowess under Arne Slot, fueled by Mohamed Salah's prolific season (29 goals, 18 assists) and strong contributions from Luis Díaz and Cody Gakpo.9 The return of these key players and a league-leading goal tally of 86 with a +45 goal differential underpin their favoritism.9 AI predictions also tip Liverpool to win the league with 88 points.10

Manchester City, despite losing their grip on the title in 2024-25, remains a formidable force under Pep Guardiola. Bookmakers place them at 3.25 (+300) 8, highlighting their capability to reclaim the crown with new signings and a stacked roster. Erling Haaland's 22 goals and 25 points in 2025, alongside contributions from Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne, make them a constant threat.9 However, their 9 losses and 44 goals conceded in 2024-25 were noted as areas for improvement.9 Interestingly, one AI supercomputer predicts City to reclaim the title, citing their “machine-like system” and Haaland's predicted 36 goals.11

Arsenal under Mikel Arteta continues to gain momentum, having narrowly missed out on the title in previous seasons. They are priced at 3.50 (+225).8 Their 2024-25 season saw them finish runner-up with a 20-14-4 record and a league-best defense, conceding only 34 goals.9 Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard's combined 18 assists highlight their creative prowess.9 AI predictions consistently place Arsenal second, just behind Liverpool or City.10

Beyond these three, Newcastle United (15.00), Chelsea (19.00), and Manchester United (29.00) are considered outside contenders.8 Chelsea, in particular, showed promise with a FIFA Club World Cup final victory over PSG.9

The varying AI predictions for the title race, with some models favoring Liverpool 10 and others Manchester City 11, underscore the inherent uncertainty in forecasting outcomes in a league as competitive as the Premier League. This divergence in predictive analytics demonstrates that even with sophisticated AI models, the multitude of variables—such as injuries, fluctuations in player form, the integration of new signings, and the impact of managerial decisions—mean that the final outcome remains highly unpredictable. This serves to emphasize the thrilling and often surprising nature of the Premier League season.

Arsenal's impressive defensive record in 2024-25, conceding only 34 goals, was significantly better than Manchester City's 44 goals conceded and Liverpool's 86 goals scored.9 While Liverpool led in offensive output and City benefits from Erling Haaland's individual brilliance, Arsenal's defensive solidity, combined with their consistent second-place finishes, suggests that even a marginal improvement in their attacking efficiency could be enough to push them over the line for the title. This indicates that defensive stability, often overshadowed by attacking flair, could prove to be the decisive differentiator in what is expected to be a tightly contested title race, particularly for a team that has consistently been on the cusp of championship glory.

European Ambitions: Chasing Continental Glory

The Premier League will have a strong contingent in European competitions for 2025/26, reflecting its top UEFA coefficient ranking.12

Champions League: Six English teams have qualified for the Champions League League Phase: Liverpool (League Champions), Arsenal (2nd), Manchester City (3rd), Chelsea (4th), Newcastle United (5th), and Tottenham Hotspur (Europa League winners).13

Europa League: Aston Villa (6th) and Crystal Palace (FA Cup winners) have qualified for the Europa League League Phase.14

Conference League: Nottingham Forest (7th) qualified for the Conference League Play-off round.14

With six teams competing in the Champions League, two in the Europa League, and one in the Conference League 13, the Premier League schedule will be exceptionally demanding for these clubs. The general impact of European football on domestic performance is well-documented, often leading to fixture congestion, potential player fatigue, and increased injury risk.12 This creates a direct challenge for teams to manage their resources effectively. The deeper implication is that squad depth will be more critical than ever, necessitating robust rotation. Teams lacking sufficient depth may be compelled to prioritize either European progress or domestic league performance, potentially leading to unexpected results in the league, especially against teams not burdened by continental commitments. AI predictions, for instance, specifically note that “Newcastle will be hampered by European fatigue and injury spells” 11, illustrating this potential strain.

The Relegation Dogfight: Survival of the Fittest

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The battle to avoid the drop is expected to be fierce, with the newly promoted sides typically facing the toughest challenge.

Newly Promoted Sides: Leeds United (Championship winners), Burnley (2nd in Championship), and Sunderland (4th in Championship) have earned promotion to the top flight.10 The recent trend has seen all three newly promoted sides relegated in each of the last two Premier League seasons.18 Bookmakers reflect this pattern, giving Burnley (1/3), Sunderland (2/5), and Leeds (10/11) the shortest odds for relegation.18 AI predictions also consistently place Leeds (20th), Burnley (19th), and Sunderland (17th or 19th) in the relegation zone.10

While the historical trend of all three promoted sides immediately returning to the Championship is strong, there is an emerging perspective that this particular trio might defy the pattern. The research indicates that “this trio is clearly stronger” and suggests that “at least one of Leeds and Sunderland should be able to avoid the drop with the quality the latter have added and the dominance the former showed last season”.18 This suggests that while the historical precedent is a significant factor, the perceived quality of these promoted teams and their ambition in the transfer market (as seen with Sunderland's activity) introduce a nuanced element, making the relegation battle even more intriguing than a simple adherence to past trends.

Other Contenders for Survival: Wolves (3/1), Brentford (10/3), and West Ham (6/1) are also considered vulnerable.18 Wolves exhibited a worrying trend with a -14.5 expected goal difference (xGD) in 2024-25.18 West Ham finished 14th last season with a -12.7 xGD, and their fortunes under new manager Graham Potter are uncertain.10 Brentford faces significant losses, with Bryan Mbeumo (to Man Utd), Christian Norgaard (to Arsenal), and Mark Flekken (to Leverkusen) departing, which is described as a “knockout blow” to their squad.18 Everton (7/1), Fulham (7/1), Crystal Palace (15/2), and Nottingham Forest (8/1) are also mentioned as potential longshots or teams to monitor, particularly if the rigors of European football stretch their squads to breaking point.18

The significant player departures from Brentford, including Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard, and Mark Flekken, are explicitly identified as a “knockout blow” to the club.18 Concurrently, West Ham's situation is characterized as a “gamble with Potter”.18 This establishes a direct link between substantial player losses or new managerial appointments and an increased risk of relegation. The deeper implication is that for teams hovering near the relegation zone, stability in player retention and the success of new managerial gambles can be a decisive factor, potentially overriding underlying statistical models like expected goal difference or historical performance. This suggests that the human element of coaching and the cohesion within the squad will play a magnified role in the fight for Premier League survival.

4. Key Clubs Under the Microscope

This section provides a deeper dive into five pivotal clubs, analyzing their recent activities, coaching dynamics, and season aspirations.

Liverpool

Reinforcements: Arne Slot's “title-winning debut campaign” 20 was rewarded with a significant summer spending spree, potentially exceeding £400m.20 Key arrivals include Florian Wirtz (£116m from Bayer Leverkusen), a British record signing; Alexander Isak (potential £135m from Newcastle), arguably the best striker in the EPL; Jeremie Frimpong (£29.5m from Bayer Leverkusen); Milos Kerkez (£40m from Bournemouth); Hugo Ekitike (£69.4m from Eintracht Frankfurt); Armin Pecsi (£1.5m from Puskas Akademia); and Freddie Woodman (free from Preston North End).20

Losses: Notable departures include Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.3m to Real Madrid), Caoimhin Kelleher (£12.5m to Brentford), Jarell Quansah (£35m to Bayer Leverkusen), Luis Diaz (£65.5m to Bayern Munich), and Tyler Morton (£15m to Lyon).20 Harvey Elliott was also linked with RB Leipzig.21

Coach: Arne Slot, who started on June 1, 2024.22 His tactical vision emphasizes “high pressing, quick transitions, flexible roles”.24 His offensive transition focuses on “verticality and speed to progress,” with players immediately attacking spaces upon regaining possession.25 Wing play is a strong asset, utilizing one-on-one duels, overlapping runs, and strategic positioning in the penalty area.25

Ambitions: To defend their Premier League title and build on their success.20 The record-breaking acquisition of Wirtz and other high-profile signings suggest a clear intent to maintain dominance and go “back-to-back” in the league.10

Liverpool's substantial investment in attacking talent, including Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak, and Hugo Ekitike 20, directly aligns with Arne Slot's tactical philosophy, which prioritizes “verticality and speed to progress” and immediately attacking spaces upon regaining possession.25 This indicates that the club's transfer strategy is not merely about acquiring high-profile players but specifically targeting individuals who fit and enhance Slot's system. This suggests a highly cohesive and well-planned squad evolution, aiming for sustained success and not just a singular title defense.

The departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold 20, a player renowned for his offensive contributions, is a significant change. However, the simultaneous arrival of full-backs like Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez 20 suggests a strategic rebalancing of the defensive unit. Slot's system emphasizes defensive solidity through a narrow 1-4-2-4 formation and maintaining numerical superiority at the back.25 This indicates that the club is adapting its squad to better meet the defensive demands of Slot's high-pressing, transition-focused system, potentially trading some of Alexander-Arnold's unique offensive output for greater defensive stability and overall tactical versatility.

Manchester City

Reinforcements: City has made several strategic signings, spending around £155.6m.26 Key additions include Tijjani Reijnders (£46.3m from AC Milan), Rayan Cherki (£34m from Lyon), Rayan Aït-Nouri (£36.3m from Wolves), James Trafford (£31m from Burnley), Marcus Bettinelli (free from Chelsea), Sverre Nypan (£12.5m from Rosenborg), Omar Marmoush (£59m from Frankfurt), Nico González (£50m from Porto), and Abdukodir Khusanov (£33.6m from Lens).26

Losses: Notable departures include Kevin De Bruyne (free to Napoli), Yan Couto (£25.2m to Borussia Dortmund), Jacob Wright (£2.3m to Norwich City), Scott Carson (released), Maximo Perrone (£13m to Como), and Kyle Walker (£5m to Burnley).19

Coach: Pep Guardiola, who started on July 1, 2016.22 He is the longest-serving Premier League manager.23 His tactics are defined by “possession-based attacking football,” “high pressing,” and “fluid positional play,” emphasizing ball retention and constant movement.28 His system creates “deep overloads to attract pressure leading to larger spaces to go direct into the front three”.29

Ambitions: To remain competitive at the highest level across all competitions, aiming to reclaim the Premier League title and continue their dominance.8 Despite a “trophyless 2024/25,” their “machine-like system” is expected to keep them dominant.10

Despite being a “reigning juggernaut” 8 and operating with a “machine-like system” 11, it was anticipated that Manchester City's squad would require a major overhaul in the summer to maintain competitiveness at the highest level.26 Their significant spending and numerous arrivals confirm this proactive approach. This demonstrates that even a dominant team like City recognizes the imperative for continuous evolution to stay ahead. The implication is that their ambition extends beyond simply winning; it involves sustaining success by proactively addressing potential stagnation or weaknesses before they become critical, a strategy that contrasts with teams that only react to poor performance.

The departure of Kevin De Bruyne 27 represents a major loss of a creative linchpin for Manchester City. However, the signings of midfielders such as Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, and Nico González 26 indicate a strategic shift to compensate for his absence. Pep Guardiola's philosophy emphasizes fluid positional play and creating numerical superiority through collective effort.28 This suggests that City is transitioning from a reliance on individual brilliance, such as De Bruyne's, to a more collective, system-driven creativity involving multiple versatile midfielders. This approach aims to ensure the “machine-like system” can continue to function effectively without depending on a single irreplaceable player.

Arsenal

Reinforcements: Arsenal has been active in strengthening their squad.30 Key arrivals include Viktor Gyokeres (£63.5m from Sporting Lisbon), who became their sixth new signing; Noni Madueke (£52m from Chelsea); Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5m from Chelsea); Martin Zubimendi (£60m from Real Sociedad); Christian Norgaard (£12m/£15m from Brentford); and Cristhian Mosquera (£17m from Valencia).19

Losses: Notable departures include Jorginho (free to Flamengo), Thomas Partey (released), Nuno Tavares (£4.3m to Lazio), and Kieran Tierney (free to Celtic).19 Takehiro Tomiyasu was also released.30

Coach: Mikel Arteta, who started on December 22, 2019.22 He is the second longest-serving manager in the Premier League.23 His philosophy is a “structured yet fluid playing style” characterized by “rigorous discipline, strategic flexibility”.32 He emphasizes building from the back, high pressing, and dominating possession.32 His favored formation is a 4-2-3-1, focusing on defensive solidity and creative attack with positional interchange.32 The signing of Gyokeres is seen as massive, allowing for deeper defensive lines and more space for midfielders.33

Ambitions: To finally end their title drought dating back to 2004 8 and challenge for top honors.32 They are “knocking loudly on the champion's door” 8 and expect a “serious title challenge”.10

Arsenal's consistent second-place finishes 9 indicate their proximity to winning the Premier League title. The acquisition of Viktor Gyokeres 30 is highlighted as a “massive” potential difference-maker due to his ability to make direct runs to goal, which can pull defensive lines deeper and create more space for other attackers.33 This suggests that Arsenal's strategic recruitment is not merely adding talent but specifically addressing a perceived missing piece in their attacking puzzle—a more direct, goal-focused striker. This tactical enhancement aims to convert their strong possession and defensive solidity into more decisive wins, potentially helping them overcome the issue of “dropping a few crucial points in the run-in” that AI models have identified.11

Chelsea

Reinforcements: Chelsea has been proactive in securing promising young talents.34 Key arrivals include Joao Pedro (£60m from Brighton), who made an instant impact in the Club World Cup; Jamie Gittens (£55m from Borussia Dortmund); Liam Delap (£30m from Ipswich Town); Dario Essugo (£18.5m from Sporting); Mamadou Sarr (£12m from Strasbourg); and Jorrel Hato (from Ajax).34 Additionally, Estevao (from Palmeiras) and Kendry Paez (from Independiente del Valle) are set to officially join in July 2025.34

Losses: Notable departures include Noni Madueke (£52m to Arsenal), Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5m to Arsenal), Marcus Bettinelli (to Man City), Joao Felix (to Al-Nassr), and Bashir Humphreys (to Burnley).19 Jadon Sancho also departed.35

Coach: Enzo Maresca, who started on June 3, 2024.22 His tactical setup is built around flexibility, with a base 4-2-3-1 that shifts into a 3-2-4-1 in build-up, utilizing an inverted full-back to overload the center and dominate possession through short passes.37 He emphasizes immediate counter-pressing (gegenpressing) upon losing possession, followed by a reversion to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 block if possession is not quickly regained.37

Ambitions: To compete in the Champions League once again after a solid debut season under Maresca.10 They aim to become “serious title threats” with their dynamic young core.8

Chelsea's transfer activity is heavily concentrated on acquiring young, promising talents such as Estevao, Kendry Paez, Jamie Gittens, and Liam Delap.34 This strategic approach indicates the club's commitment to a long-term rebuild and development strategy under Enzo Maresca, rather than focusing solely on immediate fixes. While this provides significant potential for future success and aligns with a sustainable model, it also carries the inherent risk of inconsistency in the short term as these young players adapt to the rigorous demands of the Premier League. This could explain why AI predictions anticipate Chelsea might “just miss the top four” 10 despite their undeniable talent.

Maresca's tactical reliance on inverted full-backs to overload the midfield 37 creates a numerical advantage in central areas, facilitating possession dominance. However, this approach inherently “creates gaps in wide areas, especially during defensive transitions”.38 This represents a direct consequence of the tactical choice. The implication is that while Chelsea aims for central control and ball retention, they may be susceptible to quick counter-attacks down the flanks, particularly against teams with fast wingers who can exploit the vacated spaces. This structural vulnerability suggests that opponents will likely target these wide areas, making Chelsea's defensive transitions and the tracking back of their wingers crucial for their overall success and stability.

Manchester United

Reinforcements: Manchester United have made several key signings under Ruben Amorim.39 Key arrivals include Bryan Mbeumo (£71m from Brentford), Matheus Cunha (£62.5m from Wolves), Diego Leon (£3m from Cerro Porteno).19 Enzo Kana-Biyik also signed as a free agent but was loaned out.39

Losses: Significant departures include Marcus Rashford (loan to Barcelona), Christian Eriksen (released), Jonny Evans (retired), and Victor Lindelof (released).19

Coach: Ruben Amorim, who started on November 11, 2024.22 His philosophy focuses on “dynamic build-up play, compact defending, and effective transitions,” often utilizing a 1-3-4-3 formation that can rotate into a 1-4-2-3-1 or 1-3-2-5.41 He prioritizes playing through the middle, creating numerical superiority in midfield, and immediate counter-pressing.41

Ambitions: To bounce back from recent inconsistencies and challenge for European spots, with historical pedigree making them a “tempting underdog pick” for the title.8 AI predicts they will “improve significantly but lack the identity or consistency needed for the top four,” citing a “leaky defence and inconsistent attack”.11

Ruben Amorim's preferred 3-4-3 formation 41 is noted to be “very easily counter-attacked”.42 While his system aims for a high defensive line and immediate counter-pressing 41, discussions indicate concerns about the defense staying back and the midfield appearing empty, potentially creating 3v2 situations for opponents.42 This highlights a direct consequence of the tactical formation. The deeper implication is that despite Amorim's structured approach and focus on central overloads, Manchester United might continue to struggle with defensive transitions and be exposed by direct attacks, particularly against top teams capable of exploiting the spaces left by their high press and midfield compactness. This could be a significant factor in their predicted struggle to break into the top four.11

AI predicts Manchester United's attack to be “dependent on moments of brilliance from Bruno Fernandes”.11 This observation contrasts with Ruben Amorim's stated philosophy of structured play and creating chances through specific tactical principles like the third-man principle and attacking half-spaces.41 This suggests a potential disconnect between the coach's ideal systemic approach and the current squad's execution or reliance on individual players to provide decisive moments. The implication is that while Amorim is actively implementing a new tactical identity, the team's ability to consistently perform might still hinge on individual quality rather than a fully cohesive and self-sufficient system. This reliance could hinder their overall consistency and prevent a sustained challenge for a top-four position.

Key Club Overview: Reinforcements, Coach, Ambitions

Club NameKey ReinforcementsKey LossesCoach (Start Date)Coaching Philosophy (Brief)Stated Ambitions
LiverpoolF. Wirtz (£116m), A. Isak (£135m), J. Frimpong (£29.5m), M. Kerkez (£40m), H. Ekitike (£69.4m) 20T. Alexander-Arnold (£8.3m), L. Diaz (£65.5m), J. Quansah (£35m) 20Arne Slot (Jun 1, 2024) 22High pressing, quick transitions, verticality, speed 24Defend PL title, sustained dominance 10
Manchester CityT. Reijnders (£46.3m), R. Cherki (£34m), R. Ait-Nouri (£36.3m), J. Trafford (£31m), O. Marmoush (£59m) 26K. De Bruyne (free), Y. Couto (£25.2m), K. Walker (£5m) 19Pep Guardiola (Jul 1, 2016) 22Possession-based, high pressing, fluid positional play, deep overloads 28Reclaim PL title, remain competitive at highest level 8
ArsenalV. Gyokeres (£63.5m), N. Madueke (£52m), K. Arrizabalaga (£5m), M. Zubimendi (£60m), C. Norgaard (£15m) 30Jorginho (free), T. Partey (released), N. Tavares (£4.3m), K. Tierney (free) 30Mikel Arteta (Dec 22, 2019) 22Structured yet fluid, high pressing, possession dominance, 4-2-3-1 32End title drought, serious title challenge 8
ChelseaJ. Pedro (£60m), J. Gittens (£55m), L. Delap (£30m), D. Essugo (£18.5m), M. Sarr (£12m) 34N. Madueke (£52m), K. Arrizabalaga (£5m), J. Felix (Al-Nassr), J. Sancho (free) 34Enzo Maresca (Jun 3, 2024) 22Flexible 4-2-3-1 (shifts to 3-2-4-1), inverted full-backs, counter-pressing 37Compete in CL, become serious title threats 8
Manchester UnitedB. Mbeumo (£71m), M. Cunha (£62.5m), D. Leon (£3m) 39M. Rashford (loan), C. Eriksen (released), J. Evans (retired), V. Lindelof (released) 39Ruben Amorim (Nov 11, 2024) 22Dynamic build-up, compact defending, effective transitions, 1-3-4-3 41Bounce back, challenge for European spots 8

5. Summer Transfer Window 2025: Ins and Outs

The summer 2025 transfer window has seen significant activity across the Premier League, with clubs reinforcing their squads, addressing weaknesses, and offloading surplus players.

Key Transfers In:

  • Liverpool: Florian Wirtz (£116m from Bayer Leverkusen), Jeremie Frimpong (£29.5m from Bayer Leverkusen), Milos Kerkez (£40m from Bournemouth), Hugo Ekitike (£69.4m from Eintracht Frankfurt), Alexander Isak (potential £135m from Newcastle).20
  • Manchester City: Tijjani Reijnders (£46m from AC Milan), Rayan Cherki (£34m from Lyon), Rayan Ait-Nouri (£31m from Wolves), James Trafford (£31m from Burnley), Omar Marmoush (£59m from Frankfurt), Nico González (£50m from Porto), Abdukodir Khusanov (£33.6m from Lens).26
  • Arsenal: Viktor Gyokeres (£63.5m from Sporting), Noni Madueke (£52m from Chelsea), Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5m from Chelsea), Martin Zubimendi (£60m from Real Sociedad), Christian Norgaard (£15m from Brentford), Cristhian Mosquera (£17m from Valencia).30
  • Manchester United: Bryan Mbeumo (£71m from Brentford), Matheus Cunha (£62.5m from Wolves), Diego Leon (£3m from Cerro Porteno).39
  • Chelsea: Joao Pedro (£60m from Brighton), Jamie Gittens (£55m from Dortmund), Liam Delap (£30m from Ipswich), Dario Essugo (£18.5m from Sporting), Mamadou Sarr (£12m from Strasbourg), Jorrel Hato (Ajax), Estevao (Palmeiras), Kendry Paez (Del Valle).34
  • Other Notable Arrivals: Anthony Elanga (£55m to Newcastle from Nott'm Forest), Aaron Ramsdale (loan to Newcastle from Southampton), Dan Ndoye (£34m to Nott'm Forest from Bologna), Sunderland signed midfielder Xhaka from Leverkusen.19

Key Losses/Departures:

  • Liverpool: Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.3m to Real Madrid), Luis Diaz (£65.5m to Bayern Munich), Jarell Quansah (£35m to Bayer Leverkusen), Caoimhin Kelleher (£12.5m to Brentford), Tyler Morton (£15m to Lyon).20
  • Manchester City: Kevin De Bruyne (free to Napoli), Yan Couto (£25.2m to Borussia Dortmund), Kyle Walker (£5m to Burnley).19
  • Arsenal: Jorginho (free to Flamengo), Thomas Partey (released), Nuno Tavares (£4.3m to Lazio), Kieran Tierney (free to Celtic), Takehiro Tomiyasu (released).30
  • Manchester United: Marcus Rashford (loan to Barcelona), Christian Eriksen (released), Jonny Evans (retired), Victor Lindelof (released).39
  • Chelsea: Noni Madueke (£52m to Arsenal), Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5m to Arsenal), Marcus Bettinelli (to Man City), Joao Felix (to Al-Nassr), Jadon Sancho (free to Man Utd).35
  • Other Notable Departures: Bryan Mbeumo (£71m from Brentford to Man Utd), Christian Norgaard (£15m from Brentford to Arsenal), Mark Flekken (£11m from Brentford to Bayer Leverkusen), Anthony Elanga (£55m from Nott'm Forest to Newcastle), Callum Wilson (free from Newcastle to West Ham), Sean Longstaff (£12m from Newcastle to Leeds).19

Analysis of Movements:

The transfer window has seen a clear trend of top clubs investing heavily in attacking and midfield talent, particularly Liverpool and Manchester City, signaling their intent to maintain or reclaim dominance. Arsenal's strategic signings like Gyokeres and Madueke aim to add more directness and cutting edge. The significant departures from Brentford (Mbeumo, Norgaard, Flekken) are a major concern for their survival hopes, indicating a potential weakening of their core.18 Chelsea's focus on young, high-potential players suggests a long-term vision, while Manchester United's acquisitions of Mbeumo and Cunha aim to bolster their attack under a new manager.

The sheer volume and financial scale of transfers by Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United 20 indicate a clear strategy to reinforce their squads with top-tier talent. This aggressive spending by the traditional “Big Six” (or emerging top contenders like Newcastle) will likely further polarize the league, making it even harder for mid-table and promoted teams to compete. This could lead to fewer upsets against top teams and potentially a more predictable top half, while intensifying the competition in the lower half as teams struggle to keep pace with the escalating standards.

While top clubs are actively acquiring talent, some mid-table teams are simultaneously losing key players to these larger clubs. Brentford's losses of Mbeumo and Norgaard 18 are explicitly described as a “knockout blow”.18 This indicates that the transfer market is not solely about strengthening the top tier but also about the potential destabilization of mid-table clubs. Their ability to effectively replace these key players will be crucial for maintaining their league position, and a failure to do so could see them dragged into the relegation battle. This dynamic reinforces the perception that the “rich get richer” in the Premier League, as financial power enables top clubs to cherry-pick talent, impacting the competitive balance throughout the league.

Notable Summer 2025 Transfers (Ins & Outs)

Player NameOld ClubNew ClubTransfer TypeFee (Approx.)Position
Key Arrivals
Florian WirtzBayer LeverkusenLiverpoolPermanent£116m 20Midfielder
Alexander IsakNewcastle UnitedLiverpoolPotential Permanent£135m 20Forward
Bryan MbeumoBrentfordManchester UnitedPermanent£71m 19Forward
Viktor GyokeresSporting CPArsenalPermanent£63.5m 19Forward
Matheus CunhaWolvesManchester UnitedPermanent£62.5m 19Forward
Joao PedroBrighton & Hove AlbionChelseaPermanent£60m 34Forward
Martin ZubimendiReal SociedadArsenalPermanent£60m 30Midfielder
Omar MarmoushFrankfurtManchester CityPermanent£59m 26Forward
Jamie GittensBorussia DortmundChelseaPermanent£55m 34Winger
Anthony ElangaNottingham ForestNewcastle UnitedPermanent£55m 19Winger
Noni MaduekeChelseaArsenalPermanent£52m 19Winger
Nico GonzálezPortoManchester CityPermanent£50m 26Midfielder
Tijjani ReijndersAC MilanManchester CityPermanent£46.3m 26Midfielder
Milos KerkezBournemouthLiverpoolPermanent£40m 20Defender
Rayan Ait-NouriWolvesManchester CityPermanent£31m 26Defender
James TraffordBurnleyManchester CityPermanent£31m 26Goalkeeper
Liam DelapIpswich TownChelseaPermanent£30m 34Striker
Jeremie FrimpongBayer LeverkusenLiverpoolPermanent£29.5m 20Defender
Dario EssugoSporting CPChelseaPermanent£18.5m 34Midfielder
Cristhian MosqueraValenciaArsenalPermanent£17m 30Defender
Christian NorgaardBrentfordArsenalPermanent£15m 19Midfielder
Mamadou SarrStrasbourgChelseaPermanent£12m 34Defender
Sverre NypanRosenborgManchester CityPermanent£12.5m 26Midfielder
Key Departures
Luis DiazLiverpoolBayern MunichPermanent£65.5m 20Winger
Noni MaduekeChelseaArsenalPermanent£52m 19Winger
Kevin De BruyneManchester CityNapoliFreeFree 27Midfielder
Anthony ElangaNottingham ForestNewcastle UnitedPermanent£55m 19Winger
Jarell QuansahLiverpoolBayer LeverkusenPermanent£35m 20Defender
Yan CoutoManchester CityBorussia DortmundPermanent£25.2m 27Defender
Caoimhin KelleherLiverpoolBrentfordPermanent£12.5m 20Goalkeeper
Trent Alexander-ArnoldLiverpoolReal MadridPermanent£8.3m 20Defender
Marcus RashfordManchester UnitedBarcelonaLoanLoan 39Forward
JorginhoArsenalFlamengoFreeFree 30Midfielder
Thomas ParteyArsenalReleasedReleasedFree 30Midfielder
Christian EriksenManchester UnitedReleasedReleasedFree 39Midfielder
Victor LindelofManchester UnitedReleasedReleasedFree 39Defender
Joao FelixChelseaAl-NassrPermanentTransfer 36Forward
Bryan MbeumoBrentfordManchester UnitedPermanent£71m 19Forward
Christian NorgaardBrentfordArsenalPermanent£15m 19Midfielder
Mark FlekkenBrentfordBayer LeverkusenPermanent£11m 19Goalkeeper

6. New Faces in the Dugout: Managerial Changes

The 2025/26 Premier League season sees several prominent managerial changes, bringing new tactical philosophies and fresh ambitions to various clubs.

Key Appointments and Departures:

  • Liverpool: Arne Slot (started June 1, 2024), replacing Jürgen Klopp.22
  • Manchester United: Ruben Amorim (started November 11, 2024), replacing Erik ten Hag.22
  • Chelsea: Enzo Maresca (started June 3, 2024), replacing Mauricio Pochettino.22
  • Tottenham Hotspur: Thomas Frank (started June 12, 2025), replacing Ange Postecoglou.22
  • Burnley: Scott Parker (started July 5, 2024), replacing Vincent Kompany.22
  • Everton: David Moyes (started January 11, 2025), replacing Sean Dyche.22
  • Brentford: Keith Andrews (started June 27, 2025), replacing Thomas Frank.22
  • Brighton: Fabian Hurzeler (started June 15, 2024), replacing Roberto De Zerbi.22
  • Sunderland: Regis Le Bris (started July 1, 2024).22
  • Wolves: Vitor Pereira (started December 19, 2024).22
  • West Ham: Graham Potter (started January 9, 2025).22

Assessment of Capabilities and Potential Impact:

  • Arne Slot (Liverpool): Rewarded for a “title-winning debut campaign” 20, Slot's high-pressing, quick-transition style 24 has already proven effective. His challenge will be to sustain this success in his second season.
  • Ruben Amorim (Manchester United): Known for his “structured yet attacking style” and 3-4-3 formation 41, Amorim is tasked with bringing a “fresh tactical identity” 41 and consistency to United, who finished 15th last season.14
  • Enzo Maresca (Chelsea): His “solid debut season” saw Chelsea qualify for the Champions League.10 Maresca's possession-based, inverted full-back system 37 aims to dominate games.
  • Thomas Frank (Tottenham): Having moved from Brentford, Frank is “tasked with building a new era” at Spurs.23 His analytical approach and ability to overcome player departures at Brentford 18 suggest he could bring stability and progress.
  • Graham Potter (West Ham): His appointment is seen as a “gamble” 18 for West Ham, who finished 14th last season.10 His ability to get it right could lead to top-half upside, but a relegation scrap is also possible.18
  • David Moyes (Everton): Took Everton from relegation danger to mid-table comfort 10, and another solid campaign is expected.
  • Keith Andrews (Brentford): Inherits a team that lost key players (Mbeumo, Norgaard, Flekken) 18, facing a significant challenge to maintain their Premier League status.

Numerous clubs, including Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, and West Ham, have relatively new managers.22 While some, like Arne Slot and Enzo Maresca, have experienced successful initial periods, others such as Ruben Amorim and Graham Potter are still in the early stages of implementing their philosophies.18 This dynamic creates a scenario where an initial boost from a new appointment could be observed, but the long-term success will depend on how effectively these coaches can embed their systems and adapt to the Premier League's unique demands. The broader implication is that early-season form for these clubs might be volatile as players adjust to new tactical approaches, potentially leading to unexpected results and a more open league landscape.

Pep Guardiola at Manchester City and Mikel Arteta at Arsenal stand out as the two longest-serving managers in the Premier League 23, with tenures of over eight and five years, respectively. Their clubs consistently occupy the top positions in the league.8 This demonstrates a clear correlation: managerial longevity fosters tactical consistency and squad cohesion, which in turn leads to sustained top performance. The broader implication is that while new appointments generate excitement, the stability and long-term vision provided by established managers like Guardiola and Arteta offer their clubs a significant competitive advantage. This allows for continuous refinement of their playing styles and a deeper understanding within the squad, crucial factors for navigating the demanding Premier League schedule and maintaining elite status.

Premier League Managerial Changes 2025/26

Club NameNew ManagerStart DatePrevious Manager (if applicable)Brief Note on Impact/Style
LiverpoolArne SlotJun 1, 2024 22Jürgen KloppSustained success after title-winning debut; high-pressing, quick transitions 20
Manchester UnitedRuben AmorimNov 11, 2024 22Erik ten HagBringing structured, attacking 3-4-3 identity; aims for consistency 41
ChelseaEnzo MarescaJun 3, 2024 22Mauricio PochettinoPossession-based, inverted full-back system; qualified for CL 37
Tottenham HotspurThomas FrankJun 12, 2025 22Ange PostecoglouTasked with building new era; known for analytical approach and resilience 18
BurnleyScott ParkerJul 5, 2024 22Vincent KompanyLeads newly promoted side; faces challenge of retaining PL status 18
EvertonDavid MoyesJan 11, 2025 22Sean DycheStabilized club; expected to maintain mid-table comfort 10
BrentfordKeith AndrewsJun 27, 2025 22Thomas FrankInherits team with key player losses; significant challenge ahead 18
Brighton & Hove AlbionFabian HurzelerJun 15, 2024 22Roberto De ZerbiYoungest PL manager; focus on progressive football 23
SunderlandRegis Le BrisJul 1, 2024 22Leads newly promoted side; ambition in transfer market noted 18
WolvesVitor PereiraDec 19, 2024 22Gary O'NeilTasked with arresting slide; underlying numbers a concern 18
West Ham UnitedGraham PotterJan 9, 2025 22David MoyesConsidered a “gamble”; potential for top-half or relegation scrap 18

7. European Competitions: Balancing Domestic and Continental Demands

The Premier League's strong performance in European competitions is evident, with the league currently ranked first in the UEFA coefficient rankings.12 This success, however, comes with the inherent challenge of managing fixture congestion and maintaining squad depth.

Premier League Teams in European Competitions:

  • Champions League (6 teams): Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur.13 Tottenham qualified by winning the Europa League, and Crystal Palace by winning the FA Cup.14
  • Europa League (2 teams): Aston Villa, Crystal Palace.14
  • Conference League (1 team): Nottingham Forest.14

Coping with the Workload:

The ability to rotate players without a significant drop in quality is paramount for teams competing on multiple fronts.43 Clubs like Manchester City and Liverpool, with their extensive transfer spending and large, high-quality squads, are generally better equipped to handle the demands of multiple competitions.20 Arsenal has strengthened their midfield with Zubimendi and Norgaard, and attack with Gyokeres and Madueke, adding crucial depth.30 Chelsea's focus on young talents like Joao Pedro, Jamie Gittens, and Liam Delap, alongside their existing core, aims to build sustainable depth.34 Manchester United's additions of Mbeumo and Cunha also aim to bolster their options.39

Historically, English clubs have faced challenges balancing domestic and European commitments, though the Premier League's financial strength and improved infrastructure have helped mitigate some of these issues.16 AI predictions specifically mention that “Newcastle will be hampered by European fatigue and injury spells” 11, indicating that even top-half teams can struggle with the added demands if their depth is not sufficiently robust. For teams like Nottingham Forest, participating in the Conference League, with its additional fixtures and travel, could be a significant stretch on their squad, potentially impacting their league form.18 The increased travel demands inherent in European competitions can also lead to player fatigue and reduced recovery time, which in turn can affect performance in subsequent domestic fixtures.

While European qualification is a clear mark of success and brings financial benefits 16, for clubs like Newcastle and Nottingham Forest 14, it presents a significant challenge. AI explicitly states that Newcastle will be “hampered by European fatigue and injury spells”.11 This indicates that increased European participation directly leads to an increased workload, which can negatively impact domestic league performance. The broader implication is that for teams outside the traditional financial elite, European success can become a burden, potentially forcing them to prioritize one competition over another or risking a decline in league form. This phenomenon, often referred to as a “European hangover,” can significantly alter a team's trajectory within the domestic league.

The research material consistently points to squad depth 43 as crucial for managing the demands of European competition. However, the sheer volume of high-quality transfers by top clubs 20 suggests that the definition of “depth” in modern football has evolved. It now implies having multiple elite-level players available for each position, rather than simply competent backups. This escalating standard is a direct consequence of increased competition and financial investment. The broader implication is that the financial arms race in the Premier League is pushing the requirement for “squad depth” to unprecedented levels, making it increasingly difficult for even established Premier League teams to compete effectively on all fronts without substantial and continuous investment. This dynamic further exacerbates the competitive gap between the top clubs and the rest of the league.

8. Predictions and Odds: Our Analytical Outlook

Forecasting the Premier League is always a challenge, but combining expert analysis with AI models and bookmakers' odds provides a comprehensive outlook for the 2025/26 season.

Power Ranking Table

The following table synthesizes bookmakers' odds 8, AI predictions 10, and overall squad strength, managerial quality, and transfer activity to present a projected final league standing.

Premier League 2025/26 Predicted Final Standings (eScored)

PositionTeamPredicted Points (AI)Last Season's Position 10Key Notes
1Liverpool88 101stTitle favorites, strong reinforcements, aiming for back-to-back CL qualification
2Arsenal84 102ndStrong title contenders, best defense last season, CL qualification
3Manchester City80 103rdPerennial title threat, significant transfers, CL qualification
4Newcastle United68 105thStrong contenders for CL spot, but European fatigue a concern 11
5Chelsea60 104thYoung core, CL qualification, predicted to just miss top four by some AI 10
6Aston Villa58 106thEuropa League qualification, consistent under Emery
7Brentford56 1010thPredicted to avoid drop despite key losses, potential for European push 18
8Nottingham Forest54 107thConference League qualification, aiming to maintain top-half status 18
9Crystal Palace48 1012thEuropa League qualification (FA Cup), potential for top-half finish 18
10Everton46 1013thExpected solid campaign under Moyes 10
11Manchester United44 1015thPredicted to improve but miss top four, inconsistent attack/defense 11
12Tottenham Hotspur42 1017thCL qualification (EL winners), new manager, expected improvement 11
13Fulham40 1011thMid-table solidity, lacking standout performers 11
14Bournemouth38 109thExpected mid-table finish
15Brighton & Hove Albion36 108thPredicted dip due to player losses, still competitive 11
16West Ham United34 1014thNew manager gamble, potential relegation scrap 18
17Sunderland30 104th (Championship)Newly promoted, heavily tipped for relegation, but ambition noted 18
18Wolves28 1016thHeavily tipped for relegation, worrying xGD 18
19Burnley26 102nd (Championship)Newly promoted, heavily tipped for relegation 18
20Leeds United24 101st (Championship)Newly promoted, heavily tipped for relegation, limited depth 11

Analytical Prediction by Places:

  • Title Contenders: Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal are the clear frontrunners. While AI predictions vary (Liverpool to win 10; Man City to win 11), the consensus points to a tight race at the top, likely going down to the wire.
  • European Spots (Top 7-8): Beyond the top three, Newcastle United and Chelsea are strong candidates for the remaining Champions League spots.8 Aston Villa, who finished 6th last season, will also be pushing for these positions.10 Manchester United, despite their historical pedigree, are predicted by AI to miss the top four 11, but could still secure a European spot. Tottenham, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, and Brentford are also expected to compete for these places.10
  • Mid-Table Solidity: Everton, Fulham, Brighton, and Bournemouth are predicted to finish in the mid-table, showcasing varying degrees of stability.10
  • Relegation Battle: The newly promoted sides, Leeds United, Burnley, and Sunderland, are heavily tipped for relegation.10 Wolves and West Ham are also considered vulnerable.18

Bookmakers' Odds (Summary):

  • Winner: Liverpool (2.85 / +190), Manchester City (3.25 / +300), Arsenal (3.50 / +225).8
  • Relegation: Burnley (1/3), Sunderland (2/5), Leeds (10/11), Wolves (3/1), Brentford (10/3), West Ham (6/1).18

There is a slight discrepancy between some AI predictions and bookmakers' odds. For instance, while some AI models predict Liverpool to win the league 10, bookmakers offer competitive odds for Manchester City and Arsenal.8 This difference in valuation highlights that while AI models are data-driven, bookmakers also factor in market sentiment, historical performance, and expert opinion, which can create differing perspectives on risk and reward. This dynamic underscores the complex nature of predictions in sports and can present potential value opportunities for those closely following the market.

AI predictions indicate a “congested mid-table” 11, with several teams projected to finish within a narrow points range.10 This suggests that minor factors, such as individual player form, injury luck, or timely managerial tactical adjustments, could have a disproportionate impact on the final league positions for these teams. The broader implication is that the Premier League's competitiveness extends well beyond the title and relegation battles. Every point becomes crucial for teams aiming for stability, higher prize money, or even a surprising push for European qualification, making the mid-table contests as compelling as those at the very top or bottom.

9. Round 1: The Opening Weekend

The Premier League kicks off with a series of exciting fixtures, setting the tone for the season ahead.

Round 1 Schedule (All times BST, subject to change):

DateTimeHome TeamAway TeamBroadcast Channel
Friday 15 August
20:00LiverpoolAFC BournemouthSky Sports 3
Saturday 16 August
12:30Aston VillaNewcastle UnitedTNT Sports 3
15:00Brighton & Hove AlbionFulham3
15:00SunderlandWest Ham United3
15:00Tottenham HotspurBurnley3
17:30Wolverhampton WanderersManchester CitySky Sports 3
Sunday 17 August
14:00ChelseaCrystal PalaceSky Sports 3
14:00Nottingham ForestBrentfordSky Sports 3
16:30Manchester UnitedArsenalSky Sports 3
Monday 18 August
20:00Leeds UnitedEvertonSky Sports 3

The Main Match of the Round:

The standout fixture of Round 1 is undoubtedly Manchester United v Arsenal on Sunday, August 17.3 This clash pits two of the league's ambitious giants against each other early in the season. The match will provide an early litmus test for both Ruben Amorim's Manchester United and Mikel Arteta's Arsenal. It represents a direct battle between two teams expected to challenge for European spots and potentially the title, offering an immediate insight into their readiness, the effectiveness of their new tactical approaches, and the impact of their summer transfers.

The fixture list includes a high-profile match like Manchester United vs. Arsenal on the opening weekend.3 This scheduling choice is designed to generate early excitement and viewership. Such “statement games” on the opening weekend can have a significant psychological impact, setting the tone for a team's confidence and perceived strength for the remainder of the season, particularly for clubs with new managers or high ambitions. An early victory against a direct rival can build crucial momentum, while a loss can expose vulnerabilities and place immediate pressure on newly implemented systems.

All three newly promoted teams—Sunderland, Burnley, and Leeds United—face established Premier League sides in Round 1.3 Sunderland hosts West Ham, Burnley visits Tottenham, and Leeds hosts Everton. This immediate challenge for the promoted clubs is a direct consequence of their promotion. The broader implication is that these opening fixtures serve as crucial indicators of their readiness for the top flight. Facing experienced Premier League opposition from the outset can quickly highlight areas where they need to improve, and a poor start could immediately reinforce the bookmakers' predictions of relegation 18, placing them under early pressure.

10. Conclusion: What to Expect from the Season

The Premier League 2025/26 season is poised to be another captivating chapter in English football history. With Liverpool aiming to defend their title amidst fierce competition from a resurgent Manchester City and an ever-improving Arsenal, the title race promises to go down to the wire. The analytical outlook suggests a tight contest at the top, with slight variations in predictions from different models, underscoring the inherent unpredictability that defines this league.

The influx of new managerial talent and significant transfer spending across the league suggests evolving tactical landscapes and renewed ambitions. However, the demanding schedule, exacerbated by European and international commitments, will rigorously test the depth and resilience of every squad. For mid-tier clubs, the pursuit of European glory presents a double-edged sword, potentially stretching resources thin and impacting domestic performance.

The battle for European qualification will be intense, with several clubs vying for coveted spots, while the newly promoted sides face an uphill struggle to retain their Premier League status, though some show signs of potentially bucking historical trends. The transfer market has further polarized the league, with top clubs investing heavily, while some mid-table teams face the challenge of replacing key departures. Expect drama, unexpected twists, and moments of individual brilliance that define the world's most exciting league.

On eScored you can follow daily predictions, statistics and odds for all matches in the Premier League.

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