Do the Christmas League Leaders Typically Claim the Title?
Liverpool will be on top of the Premier League table this Christmas Dayfollowing a 6-3 victory over Tottenham, while Southampton finds itself at the bottom.
So, where does each team stand and what can we infer from this?
Moreover, how frequently do teams maintain their positions if they hold them before the Boxing Day fixtures?
eScored delves into the details.
How do teams generally perform when they are in first place?
In 16 out of 32 seasons, the team leading the Premier League table on Christmas Day goes on to seize the title.
However, Liverpool’s performance record is considerably less impressive.
This is the seventh occasion the Reds have occupied the top slot on December 25, yet their only triumph since the rebranding of the top-flight in 1992 came in the 2019-20 season.
Liverpool has been in this position more frequently than any other team in English football history – 21 times, achieving victory in 11 of the previous 20.
Regarding this year’s Christmas top position, manager Arne Slot stated: “It shows we are a very strong team.
“There are still three games to play until halfway through, but we are tough to beat. If winning the league were simple, every team would accomplish it.”
Since the Premier League began, Arsenal has led the table during Christmas for the fourth time last season, but just like on the previous three occasions, they failed to lift the trophy.
Conversely, Chelsea and Manchester City, along with one-time winners Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City, have always claimed the title when topping the charts at this point.
There have been four instances when a team was sitting outside the top four at Christmas yet still emerged as champions – last season included. Manchester City were in fifth place then, trailing Arsenal by six points, although they had a game in hand, and went on to be champions for a fourth consecutive time.
The others were Manchester United (fifth in 1996-97), Arsenal (sixth in 1997-98), and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City once again (eighth in 2020-21).
Who occupies the European positions?
Presently, the top four teams are Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and… Nottingham Forest.
Bournemouth, in fifth, could potentially receive a Champions League spot based on the performance of English clubs in Europe this season.
Aston Villa is currently in sixth, while Manchester City sits in seventh; these could end up being Europa and Conference League placements, depending on the outcomes of the Carabao Cup and FA Cup.
Last season, only West Ham (in sixth) was part of the top seven on Christmas but eventually dropped out, with Chelsea (who were in tenth) taking their spot.
What about the relegation zone?
Ipswich, Wolves, and Southampton currently fill the relegation spots, with the latter two having recently made managerial changes.
It’s quite unusual for the relegation zone to consist of the same three teams at Christmas as on the final day, but it occurred last season.
Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United held the 18th, 19th, and 20th positions respectively on December 25 and maintained those standings through to May 19.
Other seasons when the bottom three remained (though not necessarily in the same order) include 2001-02 (Derby, Leicester, Ipswich), 2012-13 (Wigan, QPR, Reading), and 2020-21 (Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United).
The chances for the last team on Christmas Day to avoid relegation are similarly low – only four out of 32 instances.
West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester (2014-15), and Wolves (2022-23) are the teams that have managed to achieve this feat.
Currently, Southampton finds itself in a precarious position, eight points behind safety. But who else might be at risk?
Additionally, two teams have found themselves in the top 10 at Christmas and subsequently relegated: Norwich (seventh in 1994-95) and Blackpool (tenth in 2010-11).
Which team holds seventh place now? Manchester City.
