Backtesting - eScored

Backtesting: Pre-match Scanner

Historical performance analysis of our pre-match scanner recommendations

🐛 DEBUG INFO

📋 Applied Filters:

Array
(
    [analysis_mode] => bets
    [tip_type] => all
    [date_from] => 2026-08-20
    [date_to] => 
    [competition_id] => 0
    [season_id] => 1590
    [stake_strategy] => kelly
    [exclude_competitions] => Array
        (
            [0] => 193281
            [1] => 191669
        )

    [exclude_markets] => Array
        (
        )

)

⚡ Query Execution Time: 60.37 ms

📊 Data Statistics:

Total Records Found: 47
Table Rows Count: 7
Groups Count (Tip Types): 1
Market Groups Count: 5
Best in Market Groups Count: 8
Competition Groups Count: 5
Odds Range Groups Count: 3
Weekly Groups Count: 2
Day of Week Groups Count: 7
Market + Tip Type Groups Count: 5

📈 Summary Data:

Array
(
    [total_recommendations] => 47
    [correct] => 36
    [incorrect] => 10
    [success_rate] => 78.26
    [avg_odds] => 1.62
    [avg_winning_odds] => 1.63
    [roi] => 46.39
    [total_profit] => 563.41
)

📦 Groups Data (Tip Types - first 3):

📊 Market Groups Data (first 3):

🏆 Best in Market Debug Info:

Raw results count: 9

Query parameters:

Array
(
    [0] => 2026-08-20
    [1] => 1590
    [2] => 193281
    [3] => 191669
    [4] => 193281
    [5] => 191669
)

Final SQL query (Best in Market):

            SELECT 
                p.prediction_id,
                p.match_id,
                p.prediction_type,
                p.predicted_value,
                p.probability,
                p.odds,
                p.is_best_tip,
                p.is_premium_tip,
                p.settled,
                p.is_correct,
                p.created_at,
                m.kickoff,
                m.home_club,
                m.away_club,
                m.competition_id,
                m.season_id,
                m.finished,
                m.home_goals,
                m.away_goals,
                'Best in Market' as tip_name
            FROM wp_predictions_predictions p
            INNER JOIN wp_anwpfl_matches m ON p.match_id = m.match_id
            WHERE m.finished = 1
            AND m.home_goals IS NOT NULL
            AND m.away_goals IS NOT NULL
            AND p.scope = 'market_best'
            
         AND DATE(m.kickoff) >= '2026-08-20' AND m.season_id = 1590 AND m.competition_id NOT IN (193281,191669) AND (m.main_stage_id IS NULL OR m.main_stage_id NOT IN (193281,191669)) ORDER BY m.kickoff DESC

Total market_best records (all time): 76140
market_best records after date filter (2026-08-20): 9

🔍 Filtering Statistics:

Raw results from query: 9
After market name conversion: 9
Conversion failed: 0
After deduplication: 8
Filtered as duplicates: 1

Market names found (sample):

Asian Handicap, Both Teams Score, Double Chance, Goals Over/Under, Match Winner, Total - Away, Total - Home, Win to Nil - Away, Win to Nil - Home

📋 Sample Prediction Types (first 20 unique):

Asian Handicap, Both Teams Score, Double Chance, Goals Over/Under, Match Winner, Total - Away, Total - Home, Win to Nil - Away, Win to Nil - Home

🏆 Competition Groups Data (first 3):

📈 Odds Range Groups Data (first 3):

📅 Weekly Groups Data (first 3):

📆 Day of Week Groups Data:

🔗 Market + Tip Type Groups Data (first 3):

📋 Table Rows (first 5):

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [tip_name] => Best Tip
            [date] => 2026-08-26
            [recommendations] => 1
            [success_rate] => 100
            [avg_odds] => 1.69
            [avg_winning_odds] => 1.69
            [roi] => 69
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [tip_name] => Best Tip
            [date] => 2026-08-25
            [recommendations] => 1
            [success_rate] => 0
            [avg_odds] => 1.36
            [avg_winning_odds] => 0
            [roi] => -100
        )

    [2] => Array
        (
            [tip_name] => Best Tip
            [date] => 2026-08-24
            [recommendations] => 5
            [success_rate] => 80
            [avg_odds] => 1.71
            [avg_winning_odds] => 1.73
            [roi] => 59.41
        )

    [3] => Array
        (
            [tip_name] => Best Tip
            [date] => 2026-08-23
            [recommendations] => 15
            [success_rate] => 85.71
            [avg_odds] => 1.61
            [avg_winning_odds] => 1.61
            [roi] => 67.34
        )

    [4] => Array
        (
            [tip_name] => Best Tip
            [date] => 2026-08-22
            [recommendations] => 20
            [success_rate] => 80
            [avg_odds] => 1.66
            [avg_winning_odds] => 1.66
            [roi] => 46.12
        )

)

🔍 Database Diagnostics:

Total predictions in DB: 325301
Settled predictions: 0
Best tips (all): 6502
Settled best tips: 0
Finished matches: 27792
Finished matches after 2026-08-20: 86
Finished matches with score: 27792
Predictions with finished matches (score available): 313993
Best tips with finished matches (score available): 6377
Best tips with date filter (NEW LOGIC): 105
Finished matches with score after date: 86

⚠️ Date Filter Analysis:

✅ Date filter is valid (past date: 2026-08-20)

🗄️ SQL Count Query (NEW LOGIC - matches actual query):

                                SELECT COUNT(*) as total
                                FROM wp_predictions_predictions p
                                INNER JOIN wp_anwpfl_matches m ON p.match_id = m.match_id
                                WHERE m.finished = 1
                                AND m.home_goals IS NOT NULL
                                AND m.away_goals IS NOT NULL
                                 AND ((p.is_best_tip = 1 OR p.is_safe_tip = 1 OR p.is_risky_tip = 1))
                             AND DATE(m.kickoff) >= '2026-08-20'

Result: 105 records

Test Query Result (tip_type="all"): 105 records

📝 Query Parameters Applied:

Date from: 2026-08-20
Date to: None
Tip type: all
Competition ID: 0
Season ID: 1590
Active Season (from ANWP): 1590
Season from GET: not set
Season from Attributes: 0

🔍 Query Debug Info (from backtesting class):

Raw results count: 47

Query parameters:

Array
(
    [0] => 2026-08-20
    [1] => 1590
    [2] => 193281
    [3] => 191669
    [4] => 193281
    [5] => 191669
)

Final SQL query (executed):

            SELECT 
                p.prediction_id,
                p.match_id,
                p.prediction_type,
                p.predicted_value,
                p.probability,
                p.odds,
                p.is_best_tip,
                p.is_premium_tip,
                p.settled,
                p.is_correct,
                p.created_at,
                p.model_source,
                m.kickoff,
                m.home_club,
                m.away_club,
                m.competition_id,
                m.season_id,
                m.finished,
                m.home_goals,
                m.away_goals,
                CASE 
                    WHEN p.is_best_tip = 1 THEN 'Best Tip'
                    ELSE 'Value Bet'
                END as tip_name
            FROM wp_predictions_predictions p
            INNER JOIN wp_anwpfl_matches m ON p.match_id = m.match_id
            WHERE m.finished = 1
            AND m.home_goals IS NOT NULL
            AND m.away_goals IS NOT NULL
            AND (p.scope IS NULL OR p.scope = 'all_predictions')
             AND (p.is_best_tip = 1)
            
         AND DATE(m.kickoff) >= '2026-08-20' AND m.season_id = 1590 AND m.competition_id NOT IN (193281,191669) AND (m.main_stage_id IS NULL OR m.main_stage_id NOT IN (193281,191669)) ORDER BY m.kickoff DESC

💾 Database Tables:

Predictions: wp_predictions_predictions
Matches: wp_anwpfl_matches

🔧 PHP Environment:

PHP Version: 8.3.24
WordPress Version: 7.1
WP_DEBUG: ✅ Enabled
Current User: Not logged in
Is Admin: ❌ No

✅ Prediction Correctness Check Debug:

Total checked: 47
Auto-determined: 47
Already set in DB: 0
Cannot determine: 0

📊 Example Auto-Determined Predictions (first 10):

Type	Predicted	Score	Result	Correct?	Debug Logic	Match ID
team_total_over	Away Over 0.5	4-1	Home	✅ Yes	`Score: 4-1 (Total: 5, Result: Home) (Raw from DB: 4-1) \| Prediction: team_total_over = 'Away Over 0.5' \| Team Total: Away goals (1) over 0.5 \| 1 > 0.5 = CORRECT`	244955
team_total_over	Home Over 0.5	0-1	Away	❌ No	`Score: 0-1 (Total: 1, Result: Away) (Raw from DB: 0-1) \| Prediction: team_total_over = 'Home Over 0.5' \| Team Total: Home goals (0) over 0.5 \| 0 > 0.5 = INCORRECT`	244954
goals_over_under	Under 2.5	1-1	Draw	✅ Yes	`Score: 1-1 (Total: 2, Result: Draw) (Raw from DB: 1-1) \| Prediction: goals_over_under = 'Under 2.5' \| Over/Under format: 'Under 2.5' \| Total goals (2) < threshold (2.5) = CORRECT`	244953
goals_over_under	Over 2.5	2-3	Away	✅ Yes	`Score: 2-3 (Total: 5, Result: Away) (Raw from DB: 2-3) \| Prediction: goals_over_under = 'Over 2.5' \| Over/Under format: 'Over 2.5' \| Total goals (5) > threshold (2.5) = CORRECT`	245700
match_winner	Home	4-0	Home	✅ Yes	`Score: 4-0 (Total: 4, Result: Home) (Raw from DB: 4-0) \| Prediction: match_winner = 'Home' \| Match Winner check: Predicted 'Home' vs Actual 'Home' = CORRECT`	242923
team_total_over	Away Over 0.5	0-0	Draw	❌ No	`Score: 0-0 (Total: 0, Result: Draw) (Raw from DB: 0-0) \| Prediction: team_total_over = 'Away Over 0.5' \| Team Total: Away goals (0) over 0.5 \| 0 > 0.5 = INCORRECT`	244952
goals_over_under	Under 2.5	0-1	Away	✅ Yes	`Score: 0-1 (Total: 1, Result: Away) (Raw from DB: 0-1) \| Prediction: goals_over_under = 'Under 2.5' \| Over/Under format: 'Under 2.5' \| Total goals (1) < threshold (2.5) = CORRECT`	242922
goals_over_under	Over 2.5	0-5	Away	✅ Yes	`Score: 0-5 (Total: 5, Result: Away) (Raw from DB: 0-5) \| Prediction: goals_over_under = 'Over 2.5' \| Over/Under format: 'Over 2.5' \| Total goals (5) > threshold (2.5) = CORRECT`	244951
asian_handicap	Home +1.5	1-2	Away	✅ Yes	`Score: 1-2 (Total: 3, Result: Away) (Raw from DB: 1-2) \| Prediction: asian_handicap = 'Home +1.5' \| Asian Handicap: Home 1.5 \| Home adjusted: 1 + 1.5 = 2.5 vs Away 2 = CORRECT`	242921
asian_handicap	Home +1.5	2-2	Draw	✅ Yes	`Score: 2-2 (Total: 4, Result: Draw) (Raw from DB: 2-2) \| Prediction: asian_handicap = 'Home +1.5' \| Asian Handicap: Home 1.5 \| Home adjusted: 2 + 1.5 = 3.5 vs Away 2 = CORRECT`	246281

🔍 Full Data Structure (keys only):

Array
(
    [groups] => Array[1 items]
    [market_groups] => Array[5 items]
    [competition_groups] => Array[5 items]
    [odds_range_groups] => Array[3 items]
    [weekly_groups] => Array[2 items]
    [day_of_week_groups] => Array[7 items]
    [market_tip_groups] => Array[5 items]
    [best_in_market_groups] => Array[8 items]
    [table_rows] => Array[7 items]
    [summary] => Array[8 items]
    [model_metrics] => Array[13 items]
    [model_market_metrics] => Array[5 items]
    [selected_probability_buckets] => Array[3 items]
    [ev_buckets] => Array[6 items]
    [total_recommendations] => integer
    [analysis_mode] => string
    [debug] => Array[8 items]
)

Overall Summary

Total Recommendations

Success Rate

78.26%

Avg. Odds

1.62

Avg. Winning Odds

1.63

ROI

46.39%

Total Profit

563.41

Model Quality Summary

Scored Rows

Coverage

97.87%

Brier Score

0.1688

Log Loss

0.5214

Break-even Rate

62.31%

Hit Rate Gap

15.95 pp

Calibration by Probability Bucket

Bucket	Samples	Avg Predicted	Actual Win Rate	Gap
60-70%	22	65.46%	68.18%	2.73 pp
70-80%	19	74.02%	89.47%	15.46 pp
80-90%	5	81.78%	80.00%	-1.78 pp

Selected Bets: Predicted Probability Buckets

Bucket	Recommendations	Predicted	Actual	Gap	Avg. Odds	ROI
60-70%	23	65.48%	68.18%	2.70 pp	1.69	37.23%
70-80%	19	74.02%	89.47%	15.46 pp	1.56	59.57%
80-90%	5	81.78%	80.00%	-1.78 pp	1.56	29.59%

Selected Bets: EV Buckets vs Real ROI

EV Bucket	Recommendations	Avg EV	Predicted	Actual	Avg. Odds	ROI
EV < 0%	6	-1.23%	67.91%	80.00%	1.46	0.00%
EV 0-2%	4	0.91%	71.48%	75.00%	1.42	-24.95%
EV 2-5%	6	3.35%	68.93%	50.00%	1.50	-28.70%
EV 5-8%	2	6.29%	65.33%	100.00%	1.64	61.73%
EV 8-12%	6	10.51%	70.73%	50.00%	1.57	-11.79%
EV 12%+	23	25.22%	72.14%	91.30%	1.74	59.52%

Name / Desired Result	Date	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Best Tip	2026-08-26	1	100.00%	1.69	1.69	69.00%
Best Tip	2026-08-25	1	0.00%	1.36	0.00	-100.00%
Best Tip	2026-08-24	5	80.00%	1.71	1.73	59.41%
Best Tip	2026-08-23	15	85.71%	1.61	1.61	67.34%
Best Tip	2026-08-22	20	80.00%	1.66	1.66	46.12%
Best Tip	2026-08-21	4	50.00%	1.51	1.50	-82.66%
Best Tip	2026-08-20	1	100.00%	1.32	1.32	0.00%

Summary by Tip Type

Tip Type	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Best Tip	47	78.26%	1.62	1.63	46.39%

Summary by Market

Market	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Total - Away	9	66.67%	1.60	1.64	47.59%
Total - Home	7	71.43%	1.45	1.42	22.71%
Goals Over/Under	17	88.24%	1.71	1.70	64.85%
Match Winner	3	100.00%	1.77	1.77	90.88%
Asian Handicap	11	70.00%	1.58	1.58	18.73%

Best in Market Results

Results for the best outcome in each market type (Match Winner, Over/Under, BTTS, Asian Handicap, Team Total, Correct Score).

Market	Recommendations	Correct	Incorrect	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Asian Handicap	1	0	1	0.00%	1.49	0.00	-100.00%
Both Teams Score	1	1	0	100.00%	1.80	1.80	80.00%
Double Chance	1	1	0	100.00%	1.07	1.07	0.00%
Goals Over/Under	1	1	0	100.00%	1.44	1.44	44.00%
Match Winner	1	1	0	100.00%	1.31	1.31	0.00%
Total - Away	1	1	0	100.00%	1.69	1.69	69.00%
Total - Home	1	0	1	0.00%	2.01	0.00	-100.00%
Win to Nil - Away	1	1	0	100.00%	1.02	1.02	0.00%

Summary by Competition

Competition	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
La Liga 2026-2027	12	75.00%	1.58	1.62	48.96%
Premier League 2026-2027	10	90.00%	1.52	1.53	26.25%
Serie A 2026-2027	10	80.00%	1.62	1.60	49.93%
Ligue 1 2026-2027	9	75.00%	1.71	1.74	58.26%
Belgian Pro League 2026-2027	6	66.67%	1.76	1.83	59.05%

Summary by Odds Range

Analyze performance across different odds ranges to identify optimal betting ranges

Category	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Low (1.0-1.5)	8	75.00%	1.37	1.36	5.15%
Medium-Low (1.5-2.0)	37	77.78%	1.65	1.66	44.61%
Medium (2.0-2.5)	2	100.00%	2.10	2.10	110.11%

Summary by Week

Track performance trends over time to identify periods of strong or weak performance

Week	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Week 35, 2026 (2026-08-24 to 2026-08-30)	7	71.43%	1.66	1.72	56.64%
Week 34, 2026 (2026-08-17 to 2026-08-23)	40	79.49%	1.62	1.62	43.71%

Summary by Day of Week

Identify which days of the week show better or worse performance

Day	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Monday	5	80.00%	1.71	1.73	59.41%
Tuesday	1	0.00%	1.36	0.00	-100.00%
Wednesday	1	100.00%	1.69	1.69	69.00%
Thursday	1	100.00%	1.32	1.32	0.00%
Friday	4	50.00%	1.51	1.50	-82.66%
Saturday	20	80.00%	1.66	1.66	46.12%
Sunday	15	85.71%	1.61	1.61	67.34%

Summary by Market + Tip Type

Combined analysis: which market types work best with which tip types

Category	Recommendations	Success Rate	Avg. Odds	Avg. Winning Odds	ROI
Total - Away + Best Tip	9	66.67%	1.60	1.64	47.59%
Total - Home + Best Tip	7	71.43%	1.45	1.42	22.71%
Goals Over/Under + Best Tip	17	88.24%	1.71	1.70	64.85%
Match Winner + Best Tip	3	100.00%	1.77	1.77	90.88%
Asian Handicap + Best Tip	11	70.00%	1.58	1.58	18.73%

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