Mailbag: The Resurgence of the Long Ball, Europe’s Top Finishers, and Can Man Utd Avoid a 13th-Place Finish?
We reached out for your inquiries regarding data and tactics concerning the 2024-25 season and beyond, and you certainly delivered.
In this analysis, Michael Cox, Mark Carey, Thom Harris, and Ahmed Walid highlight some of the most compelling points for discussion.
What do you think will be the upcoming tactical trend starting in 2025? Will it be a three-at-the-back formation with man-marking similar to Gasperini’s Atalanta? Or perhaps a style focused on press-baiting passing sequences like Emery’s Villa? Maybe a return to basics like Mendilibar’s Olympiacos? — Manuel Jose C
Ahmed: I believe we’ve witnessed a rise in man-to-man pressing and press-baiting tactics over the past two years. The latter has been subtly integrated into the Premier League since Maurizio Sarri’s tenure at Chelsea and further by Tottenham under Antonio Conte, with Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton & Hove Albion being the most evident example. However, I anticipate more teams will aim to traverse the press with quick-passing combinations. You mentioned Aston Villa under Unai Emery, and I would add Brentford this season as well.
Another trend is how teams are increasingly utilizing purposeful long balls. The adoption of man-to-man marking has made long passes from goalkeepers to isolated strikers a vital tactic. Liverpool has been directing long balls toward Mohamed Salah more frequently this season compared to prior years, aiming to utilize him for quick combinations or as an attacking outlet. Overall, I believe we will see increased directness in ball progression through structured plays that initiate with long passes or quick-passing sequences to vertically penetrate the opponent.
Liverpool has been directing play more towards Mohamed Salah under Arne Slot (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
What single change could Manchester City make to improve their form? — Ben Q
Thom: Thanks for your question, Ben. It’s tough to pinpoint just one issue…
One of the most significant problems lies within the defensive structure and the high line. Liam Tharme and I elaborated on how City could adapt in this article. Furthermore, the predictability of the 3-2-5 build-up shape has enabled opposition teams to neutralize key players. We witnessed a perfect illustration of this at Aston Villa on Saturday; the Rico Lewis movement into midfield can be easily tracked and intercepted, while the two No.10s can be effectively marked by diligent holding midfielders, leaving Erling Haaland often searching for scraps.
The essence of the system is to overload the opposition’s back four, stretching them and creating opportunities for central players, but a simple transition to a back five is diminishing City’s threats, particularly as they lack forward runs to trouble defenders. According to SkillCorner, City has registered the least overlapping runs per 30 minutes among Europe’s top five leagues, and it felt evident that Jack Grealish would have benefitted from more of those runs over the weekend.
How can Pep Guardiola stop Manchester City’s decline? (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
One player who shows promise in providing forward momentum is Josko Gvardiol, but his potential impact hinges on whether injuries necessitate him playing as a centre-back. When he plays in the full-back role, as he did against Nottingham Forest, he can be effective, driving into the space created by positional rotations with Grealish for his second significant chance in the first twenty minutes.
Ultimately, this solution relies on player fitness. Manchester City might explore the transfer market for more dynamic attacking midfielders, but currently, much of their attacking play is easily contained and occurs in front of the opposition defense.
What tactical or data-driven factors make a team like Real Madrid, who has won six of the last eleven Champions Leagues, successful? And is it strange that much of it is difficult to articulate? — David C
Thom: Thank you for your insightful question, David. In recent months, Real Madrid has appeared tactically fragile. The arrival of Kylian Mbappe has complicated their ability to press effectively from their usual 4-4-2 formation, rendering it easier for opponents to penetrate through the middle and exploit a depleted back four.
There’s no vast mystery behind their successes; statistics reveal they have scored 26 more goals than what the quality of chances would indicate, which is significantly the largest overperformance in La Liga. They also lead the league with 21 goals from long-range shots, having added two more in a 4-2 victory over Sevilla this weekend.
Real Madrid, led by Bellingham and Valverde, have outperformed their expected goals metric this season (Oscar Del Pozo/AFP via Getty Images)
Madrid’s athletes provide them with an undeniable advantage. With Jude Bellingham and Fede Valverde, they possess two of the most intense and powerful runners in the game, constantly shuttling across the pitch and capable of penetrating defenses. The front three are also exceptionally quick and lethal, able to strike in crucial moments.
Madrid’s strategy of identifying young talents and gradually integrating them into the squad has proven effective, with the freshness and physicality of new players enhancing the existing team’s quality and depth.
Who are the elite attackers who take relatively few shots but boast a high conversion rate? Conversely, who takes numerous shots with a low conversion rate but achieves a similar level of goal contribution? — Parva S
Mark: This is an intriguing question, Parva. Shot conversion can often reflect poorly on a player’s finishing abilities, but we could analyze average shot quality (xG per shot) along with shooting frequency (touches per shot).
Ultimately, we’re assessing players who consistently position themselves well to shoot and how often they take those shots. As expected, Europe’s top talents, including out-and-out strikers like Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland, and Harry Kane show a pattern of taking fewer touches before high-value shots.
Among the most notable contenders, Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui has been remarkably clinical, netting 12 goals in Serie A this term. Similarly, Fiorentina’s Moise Kean, with nine goals, is helping his team maintain their place in the Champions League spots. They both appear to be consistently positioning themselves in advantageous scoring locations.
Moise Kean from Fiorentina has shown great clinical finishing this season (Gabriele Maltinti/Getty Images)
On the flip side, we have creative players who naturally touch the ball more before taking their shots. However, it may be helpful to inform Bruno Fernandes and Florian Wirtz that they are not always shooting from high-value positions. Good luck with that…
Which player among the top 5 (or top 10) European leagues has the highest expected assists (xA)? Who are the players who are most over- or underperforming in terms of xA, or whose teammates are? I believe Bukayo Saka has significantly more assists than his xA suggests (possibly due to corner contributions) — Naz M
Michael: As you noted, assist numbers can sometimes appear somewhat random and heavily depend on the finishing quality of teammates. Currently, the player with the highest xA in Europe’s major leagues this season is Raphinha, boasting an impressive 8.9 xA despite having only six assists — if I remember correctly, Robert Lewandowski has definitely squandered some of those chances. Saka indeed may be overvalued by his assist record thus far, a sentiment that can also be applied to Mohamed Salah. This chart includes every player with 5+ xA or 6+ assists.
In contrast, Monaco’s Takumi Minamino is the player most let down by his teammates, recording only one assist from 3.7 xA.
Based on both raw data and objective standards, how can we evaluate which football domestic league is the ‘best’ or ‘worst’ globally? — Fahad K
Mark: Thank you for your inquiry, Fahad. It’s crucial to recognize that designating the ‘best’ or ‘worst’ league can be subjective, influenced by one’s personal preferences for football.
What we can objectively assess is the strength of each league. In the past, we’ve utilized data from Twenty First Group, a sports analytics firm serving clubs, leagues, and investors. Their World Super League model employs machine learning algorithms to assign ratings for every team in the global football landscape. The average rating of each team subsequently defines league strength.
Not surprisingly, the Premier League ranks as the strongest league in this model, with all the top five leagues residing in… well, the top five.
For more insights on this topic, you can explore an article we published earlier this year, which dives into the inequalities across various leagues in Europe.
These models assist clubs in refining their metrics when scouting players in specific leagues and tailoring their strategies based on the disparity in quality from one club to another.
Do Manchester United deserve their 13th position and will they regain their form under Ruben Amorim? — Zac B
Ahmed: Given their underwhelming start to the season with Erik ten Hag, the answer is undoubtedly yes. It’s challenging to argue that Manchester United have performed better than any teams positioned above them when looking at their overall 17-game performance.
Nonetheless, it’s vital to emphasize that they are merely nine points off fourth place. This season, the league is unusually tight, and a successful run during the latter half of the campaign could see United finish in a considerably more favorable ranking.
Ruben Amorim has experienced a challenging start as the manager of United (Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)
However, the task at hand is not straightforward, as the Premier League’s competitiveness is exceptionally high this season, with multiple teams exceeding expectations. Regarding their performance under Ruben Amorim, I would argue it has been promising, especially considering United’s previous struggles. Although the final results during Ten Hag’s tenure may have concealed poor performances last season, United appears to be improving with the ball under Amorim. However, the team’s off-the-ball performance is still developing, despite a commendable display in the Manchester derby.
Performances like the 3-0 defeat against Bournemouth and a lackluster second half against Nottingham Forest can be attributed to the ongoing transition period.
Is Marco Silva underrated? He has achieved remarkable results with Fulham over the past couple of seasons and has managed to cope well with the departures of Mitrovic and Palhinha. Fulham seem to be strong contenders for Europe this season, and their underlying statistics are among the best in the league. Should Silva have been considered for roles at clubs like Brighton during the summer? Just how good are Fulham? — Clarissa G
Michael: I fully concur that Silva is indeed overachieving and is delivering an impressive performance this season. Among all Premier League clubs, I believe Fulham has struck the right balance between adhering to a primary style of play while also adapting their tactics against stronger teams.
At home, they exhibit excellent attacking combinations, primarily through Alex Iwobi, Emile Smith Rowe, and the ever-overlapping Antonee Robinson, arguably the best left-back in the league. Against stronger opponents, they can reposition Iwobi, shift Smith Rowe and adopt a defensive 5-4-1 formation but revert to their usual tactics in possession. They have caused significant issues for teams like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool this season, and may feel disappointed by their lack of wins in those encounters.
Is Marco Silva the most underrated manager in the Premier League? (Clive Rose/Getty Images)
I can’t say for sure if Silva is underrated, but I believe his next position could be significant. I’ve heard that he’s considered a candidate by Everton’s new ownership, despite his previous one unsuccessful stint with the club.
Yes, Fulham is indeed a very competent team. An additional point worth mentioning is that Silva tends to use his substitutions later than any other manager in the Premier League. This suggests he might be somewhat limited in terms of squad depth, which could lead to fatigue as the season progresses. However, given Fulham’s previous two disappointing relegation seasons, finishing around mid-table would be a commendable achievement.
What can be done to counter the trend of corners resembling MMA title fights? If any physical confrontations occurred during open play, most matches would likely conclude in an eight-versus-eight situation! — Mark M
Ahmed: Essentially, nothing can be done. As football remains a contact sport, blocking and screening during corner kicks is fundamental to how set pieces are executed. If dead-ball situations were contactless, fans would likely express strong dissatisfaction.
Criticism often arises only when a team suffers from such scenarios, but every football team wishes to be aggressive during set pieces, and rightly, they employ their physicality fully. In my opinion, this is a standard aspect of the game.
Have corners become excessively physical? (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
Does the tactic of inverting full-backs make a team easier to defend against? Wingers face double-marking, and the additional bodies in central midfield contribute little to attacking depth (unless we’re speaking of Trent Alexander-Arnold). — Eoin D
Michael: To some degree, I concur. However, the primary motivation for utilizing inverted full-backs isn’t about boosting attacking capacity; instead, it seeks to safeguard against the opposition exploiting space with full-backs positioned high up the pitch. I view this as a defensive strategy, which may explain why it could lead to a drop in offensive threat.
However, to advocate for its attacking potential: I believe it tends to pull the opposition midfield narrow, making it easier to deliver passes to the wingers initially. And if you have a player like Alexander-Arnold, it can enhance playmaking effectiveness, yes. Nonetheless, I believe it’s fundamentally a defense-centric approach.
Has the panel had the opportunity to read Ian Graham’s book How to Win the Premier League? I found it to be a very enlightening read and wonder the panel’s opinions. Additionally, beyond Brentford, Brighton, and Liverpool, which other clubs are extensively utilizing data analytics for player identification? How is AI being integrated into data analytics? — David L
Mark: Hi David, yes, I found it to be a remarkable book, sparking numerous ideas after reading it. Concerning clubs utilizing data for recruitment, I’d say it’s challenging to find a Premier League or EFL team without some form of analytics in their player evaluation processes.
Brentford, Brighton, and Liverpool are often noted for their exemplary integration of data across the club, but others like Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City (City Football Group) have established their data departments for numerous years, following suit. Even Manchester United set up a dedicated data department in early 2022, which may put them a little behind top-tier clubs, yet they now have sharp minds developing data models.
Brentford and Brighton are leading the charge in data analytics application (Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images)
Regarding the incorporation of artificial intelligence in football, we have published several articles on this topic recently. In particular, examine “The rise of Generative AI in football scouting”, alongside specific instances like Liverpool using AI for corner situation improvement. This area of the game is witnessing growing interest.
For Champions League teams, what percentage of their corners in domestic leagues are inswingers or outswingers, and is there a correlation between that and goals from set pieces or conceding quick breaks? — Naz M
Ahmed: I intend to work on a piece focused on defending corner kicks and generating counter-attacks stemming from them, as it has been notably apparent in the Premier League this season.
I would like to provide a more detailed response — possibly an entire article — so stay tuned for updates…
(Header photo: Chelsea Football Club/Getty Images)
